Week 1 Prediction

CAN IT BE TRUE?!  IS THIS REALLY HAPPENING?!  YES!!!  COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS BACK!!!

Now with that out of the way.. Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to the 2014 College Football Season (now with playoffs)!  The wait is finally over and tomorrow morning, bright and early, live from Croke Park Stadium in Dublin, Ireland, the Nittany Lions of Penn State take on the Golden Knights of Central Florida in the Croke Park Classic!  Kick off is at 8:30am (thanks a lot time zones!) on ESPN2.  Oh, and it would appear the names will be staying on the backs of the jerseys for the foreseeable future.

Interesting fact; I was actually in Ireland over St Patrick's Day last year and I spent 2 nights at the Croke Park Hotel, directly across the street from Croke Park Stadium (fantastic hotel btw, I highly recommend it).  So I'm quite familiar with the experience that the team is having right now.  I've been to the Guinness Storehouse and seen the view from the Gravity Bar.  I've toured Dublin from atop a double decker bus and I've even stood outside Croke Park Stadium... unfortunately I never made it inside.  There were some hurling matches scheduled, but they got rained out.  What I can tell you is the stadium itself is quite massive and imposing, just like Beaver Stadium.  In fact, it's the 3rd largest stadium in Europe.  So hopefully our boys in blue can feel the immensity of the spectacle.  It looks like they're already having a great time.  Meanwhile, back on the field, they'll be playing against a man whose name suggests he should feel right at home in Dublin; UCF head coach, George O'Leary.  His Golden Knights got the best of Penn State last season, thanks in large part to QB Blake Bortles and RB Storm Johnson (still a great name).  Those two are off in the NFL now, reunited on the Jacksonville Jaguars, ironically along with former Penn State standout WR Allen Robinson.  They might be my new favorite NFL team.  So what can we make of the teams this year?  Let's get to the first break down of the season!

The Good
Last year's UCF team shocked almost everyone, beating both Penn State and Louisville before suffering their only loss of the year to South Carolina by only 3 points (in a game they probably should have won).  They finished the year with a blowout win over heavily favored Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl.  The Knights' surprising performance played a big part in Blake Bortles' 3rd overall selection in the 2014 NFL Draft.  But like I said before, he's gone, and so is Storm Johnson, who admittedly torched Penn State in last year's game.  In their place, UCF turns to a redshirt freshman QB Pete DiNovo, and RB William Stanback... and no, I don't know anything about them either.

As for Penn State, the defense appears to be the strength of the team with a solid 3-deep on the defensive line, a thin but talented linebacking corps, and a vastly improved secondary with significantly better depth.  Standouts include DEs Deion Barnes and C.J. Olaniyan, LB Mike Hull, S Adrian Amos, and CB Jordan Lucas.  Meanwhile, despite serious depth concerns on the offensive line, the offense looks formidable.  It all starts with QB Christian Hackenberg.  I'll fawn over him later, but let's just say he's really good.  If he can stay upright, he'll be throwing to a receiving corps overflowing with elite 4-star talent... most of whom, unfortunately, have yet to play a single down in college.  Lucky for them, receiver is probably the easiest position on the field to make an immediate impact as a freshman.  And besides, you should all be more focused on arguably the best tight end corps in the country.  Even with the injury to Adam Breneman, that just leaves us with Brent Wilkerson, All-Big Ten Kyle Carter, freshman phenom Mike Gesicki, and freak of nature Jesse James.  I'm not worried.  Then of course, there's the 3-headed monster at running back: Zach Zwinak, Bill Belton, and Akeel Lynch.  Yeah, we're good there too.

The Bad
For all the questions about Central Florida's offense, there are an equal number of answers about their defense.  Some "experts" even think this could be the best defense Penn State will face all season.  I disagree with those experts, of course, because I give that honor to Michigan State and maybe even Ohio State.  Still, the Golden Knights bring 9 starters back on a defense that was already a top-20 defense last year.  This includes all 4 starters on the defensive line... you know, the guys who line up opposite Penn State's biggest weakness?  In addition, although it's safe to call newly appointed team captain Christian Hackenberg "experienced" now, as I mentioned before, that distinction doesn't exactly apply to his wide receivers.  Expect a very tough, veteran UCF secondary to take full advantage of the young guys early and often.  Not to mention, you can never count out George O'Leary, as the Nittany Lions learned the hard way last year.  Oh, and jetlag is a thing, although both teams will have to contend with it equally.

It's been stressed all offseason, the offensive line is about as deep as a kiddy pool; a fitting description given the number of freshmen being asked to step in at a position not accustomed to accommodating underclassmen.  Penn State's most famous position, linebacker, is thin too.  Not to mention the entire staff is brand new.  Unlike Bill O'Brien's crew, these guys all coached together at Vanderbilt, but they haven't coached these players in a live game yet, and they have to take their first crack at it in Dublin of all places.  Hopefully James Franklin can summon the luck of the Irish tomorrow morning.

The Story
Obviously, the story is that this game is being played in Dublin, Ireland.  Thanks to the bowl ban part of the NCAA sanctions, Penn State can't participate in the first ever College Football Playoff.  So, while head coach, Bill O'Brien set up this game as a makeshift bowl trip for the players.  Judging by the pictures of alumni filling the streets for a pep rally today, it sure feels like a bowl game atmosphere, so mission accomplished!  It will be very interesting to see how all the external factors affect the game.  I honestly think it's going to be sloppy.  If Penn State gets a win, though, who cares?

Now, just looking at some of the numbers on paper, it would appear that Penn State is going to have a rough season.  However, I hope you all read this blog for a little more than just some boring numbers.  I tend to look for the little, sometimes intangible things that others seem to miss.  For example, Penn State only brings back one starter on the offensive line (LT Donovan Smith).  Yet, offensive line coach Herb Hand has already been through this exact same situation while on the staff at Tulsa.  He ended that season with one of the best offensive lines in the country.  I trust him.  In fact, I trust this whole staff.  They've brought a magical kind of energy back to a program that desperately needed it and they seem to have infected the entire fanbase.  They're going to have one heck of a debut.  Good luck to them!

The Prediction
Well, the experts don't know what to think.  Vegas has changed its odds multiple times, from Penn State favored by 3, to UCF favored by 5.  There's just too many variables.  UCF is breaking in a new QB, but Penn State is breaking in a whole new coaching staff.  Will jetlag play a factor?  How will the "neutral site" aspect of playing in a foreign country, let alone stadium affect the players?  It's a lot to take into consideration.  To me, it comes down to this: Penn State's starting 22 are better than UCF's starting 22.  Now, if there are some in-game injuries, maybe I can understand giving the edge to O'Leary's crew.  But we can only deal with what's in front of us right now, and given the current rosters, I don't see how anyone can seriously have UCF favored, even by 1.5 points (the most recent line I saw).  It's all about match ups.  The strength of both teams is their defense, and the weakness of both teams is their offense.  So either way it's going to be a close game with points coming at a premium.  In situations like this where the teams are similar, I always bet against the weakest unit on the field.  In my opinion, that's UCF's offense.

Christian Hackenberg doesn't throw for a lot as Franklin elects to play it safe and stick to the ground game.  He does get off one picture perfect TD pass, though, probably to Geno Lewis.  Zwinak's downhill style proves the most effective and he gets the bulk of the carries.  Although no individual RB hits the 100 yd mark, together they put up decent stats.  On defense, the line takes advantage of UCF's young QB and offensive line, recording 3 sacks including one by Deion Barnes, who looks more like his freshman self than last year's incarnation.  Meanwhile, Jordan Lucas pulls down the first of many interceptions this season.  Overall, the offense struggles as predicted, but manages to do just enough to get the victory.  Sam Ficken kicks the game winning field goal and Penn State fans take over the Temple Bar section of Dublin, spending the night trying to convince bartenders to draw a Lion paw in their Guinness foam instead of a shamrock.  Final score: 23-20


Alright folks, get some sleep, we got an early start.  Enjoy the game!  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus throughout the game as I attempt to be coherent at 8:30am on a Saturday.  I'll try to get the Wrap Up done for Saturday night.  Go State, beat Knights!