Bowl Prediction

The Penn State Nittany Lions make their glorious return to the postseason with a selection to the New Era Pinstripe Bowl in New York City, the old stomping grounds of their late coach Joe Paterno.  They'll take on the Boston College Golden Eagles in a battle of white helmets with a blue stripe vs gold helmets with a red stripe.  Classic.  The game will kick off at 4:30pm and Penn State's own Matt Millen will have the call, adding to what will most certainly be a very Penn State friendly environment.  This should be a really great match up, so let's get to the final breakdown of 2014!

The Good:
With the game being played in New York City, and both student and alumni tickets selling out in near record time, I expect a very favorable crowd for James Franklin and Co that borders on home-field advantage.  The atmosphere will probably be reminiscent of the 2005 Orange Bowl, which also came after a 2-year bowl hiatus, and saw an overwhelming majority of the spectators decked out in blue and white despite the relative proximity of the bowl site to the opposing team's campus.

The importance of the 15 extra bowl practices can't be overstated, especially for a team that hasn't been able to benefit from them the last two years.  Besides giving the freshmen and backups plenty of extra reps, it also gives the injured players like LB Brandon Bell a chance to heal up.  Thanks in large part to James Franklin's injury policy, there's no way to know who else was banged up down the stretch, but Hackenberg may very well have fallen into that category.  If that's the case, the nearly one month long break could do wonders for his game and help him show flashes of his former self.

From a football perspective, Boston College is a running team plain and simple, which will definitely work in Penn State's favor given that they bring the nation's top ranked rush defense to the Big Apple and will look to send their seniors out with a dominating performance and hopefully a win.  On the other sideline, the Golden Eagles have a stout front seven of their own, but a rather pedestrian secondary.  This is good news for Hackenberg... if he has time to throw.  However, if BC is able to take advantage of our weak offensive line (as plenty of other teams have successfully done) Hack might be in for another long day of pulling himself up off the ground.  As for special teams, BC's kickers definitely aren't the best.  Since most people are expecting a close game, it could come down to a FG and I like the chances of Sam Ficken hitting a game winner to polish off an already exceptional college career.

The Bad:
Unlike Penn State, which doesn't really have a "quality" win on their schedule this year, Boston College already beat USC as heavy underdogs and came as close as anyone to beating reigning national champ Florida State.  They're a tough, no nonsense, blue collar team with a solid coach that would be a challenge for just about any squad right now.

Despite the loss of Andre Williams to the NFL, James Franklin admits that the Eagles' ground attack, which ranks #15 in the country, will be a challenge to contain.  Even with our outstanding rush defense, they'll most likely do some damage and hit on a few big plays.  In addition to their RBs, Boston College has at their disposal former Florida QB Tyler Murphy (originally recruited by their head coach, Steve Addazio while an assistant at Florida).  Murphy is very productive in a dual-threat capacity, something Penn State is not the best at defending.  Just to give you an idea of what he's accomplished, so far this year Murphy led the country in rushing for a QB and broke the ACC record for rushing yards by a QB.  Yeah, I would call that pretty good.  As Franklin said in his bowl game press conference, "we've been pretty good all year stopping the run, but we haven't really faced that before."

On defense, the Eagles don't have any real stand out players (like Mike Hull or Anthony Zettel), but they play well as a unit and can be quite formidable.  Combine that with how our offense has played this year, and this particular match up could get ugly.  As it has all season, I expect the game to come down to PSU's O-line.  They don't have to be anything spectacular, but if they can just give Hackenberg some time to pick apart a suspect BC secondary, it could get interesting.

The Story:
This game will effectively represent a battle of Philly/Pittsburgh vs Boston in New York City... how much more Northeast can you get?!  In fact, the Golden Eagles and Nittany Lions are long time Northeast rivals, going back to their days as Independents.  Along with other NE teams like Pitt, Syracuse, West Virginia, and Rutgers, Boston College used to be a member of the now defunct Big East Conference before they joined Miami and Virginia Tech in bolting for the ACC back in 2003.  As such, they compete annually for the Lambert Trophy which Penn State has won a record 29 times to BC's 5.  All told, the teams have met a total of 23 times with Penn State holding a commanding lead in the series 19-4.  However, Boston College did win the two most recent games in 2003 and 2004.

But the biggest story of this game, at least in my opinion, comes from the coaching realm.  BC Head Coach Steve Addazio rose to prominence as the Offensive Coordinator at Florida during their dominant run a few years ago that resulted in 2 BCS National Championships in only 3 years.  In 2011, he took his first collegiate head coaching job at Temple in place of the departed Al Golden (a PSU alum).  Addazio went 0-2 against Penn State as leader of the Owls, but his teams always played tough.  Either way, he is a familiar foe for this Nittany Lion team.  After only two years with Temple, he made the move to Chestnut Hill in 2013 to take over for Frank Spaziani who had been on the Boston College coaching staff since 1997.

The Prediction:
Vegas is currently giving the slight edge to Boston College, and given how Penn State has played this year, and especially towards the end, I completely understand that thinking.  Still, I firmly believe a lot of that was simply the result of fatigue from a undermanned team limping to the finish line.  With time to rest up and heal up, I expect the Nittany Lions to look more like they did against UCF in week 1 than they did against MSU in week 12.  Christian Hackenberg gives us a preview of what he plans to do in 2015 by throwing for 300 yds and a TD behind an offensive line that gives their best performance of the season.  The RBs can't get much done against a stiff BC defensive front, but Daesean Hamilton and Geno Lewis reunite the law firm and have a breakout day.  On defense, I hope to see more of what we've already had the privilege of watching all season long.  Boston College will get to "witness the firepower of this fully armed and operational" rush defense as Mike Hull leads the team in tackles, Anthony Zettel and CJ Olaniyan both record a sack, and two different members of the secondary grab interceptions.  Sam Ficken may not hit his game winner in the closing seconds, but he will be the last player to score, and it should be just enough to propel the Lions into the offseason, where a top 10 recruiting class awaits on Signing Day.  Penn State wins in typical 2014 fashion, 16 - 13.  #DominateTheEmpireState

That will do it for my 2014 prognostications.  Be sure to check back in on Sunday for my Bowl Wrap Up and early next week for the Bowl Grades and Awards.  Head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share if you're a fan of what I'm doing.  Send your questions and comments to PSUOptimus@gmail.com and maybe you'll be featured in one of my offseason posts.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!