We're in the depths of the offseason and although Blue/White weekend is mere weeks away, right now I'm quite bored. So it's time for me to talk about the future as if I have any actual clue what's going to happen. Now, fans of college football are used to the phrase "way too early" in reference to pre-season predictions. These are almost always dripping with satire and should be taken with the smallest grain of salt you can locate. Today's post will be no different. Since college football has the unfortunate designation of having the longest offseason in sports, maintaining fan interest is difficult. Consequently, during the roughly 8 months of nothingness, pundits and talking heads are forced to fill time with fake controversies and bold predictions (colloquially called "hot takes"). These can take the form of polls, rankings (both team and player), or general over-analysis of otherwise mundane topics. No matter the form, these prognostications all have one thing in common: they're presented waaaay too early. But that's ok! They're all in good fun and help to occupy our minds during the cold winter months while potentially giving us optimism for the future (which can be a good or bad thing). That's why I've decided to throw my proverbial hat into the ring and bring you my way too early predictions for the 2015 season! Let's get to the breakdown.
The Offense
Oh the offense. Was there anything good about this unit last season? That was a rhetorical question because there was not. Thankfully all indications point to a dramatic uptick in offensive productivity in 2015. Of course, everything will hinge on the development of an already historically bad offensive line which loses its two most experienced players (Donovan Smith and Miles Deiffenbach). Thankfully, they'll be bolstered by four redshirt freshmen (Noah Beh, Brendan Brosnan, Chance Sorrell, and Chasz Wright), massive JUCO transfer Paris Palmer, and fifth-year graduate transfer from Stanford, Kevin Reihner. If the line can improve (which it almost certainly will), that will free up TEs Kyle Carter, Adam Breneman, and Mike Gesicki to go out for more passes instead of staying back to block. This will, in turn, not only give QB Christian Hackenberg more weapons in the passing game, but should also subsequently free up a young but extremely talented WR corps that loses, well, nothing. Yep, standouts Geno Lewis and Daesean Hamilton both return along with breakout freshmen Chris Godwin and Saeed Blacknall. Senior Matt Zanelatto should be back from injury, and redshirt freshman De'Andre Thompkins will finally make his debut in the Blue and White. Lastly, the only returning RB is Akeel Lynch, who is more than talented enough to serve as the feature back for the coming season. Still, if he should run into any issues or injuries, there are five freshmen (seriously) waiting in the wings to steal some valuable reps away. Mark Allen, Johnathan Thomas, and Nick Scott are all removing their redshirts, while highly touted backs Saquon Barkley and Andre Robinson will arrive in the summer.
The Defense
The defense was the lone saving grace on an otherwise unimpressive 2014 Penn State squad. They were ranked as high as #2 nationally in numerous statistical categories (and #1 in total rushing defense) for much of last year. Sure, Mike Hull is gone, but behind him are a number of LB options either coming off the bench (Gary Wooten and Ben Kline), off a redshirt (Troy Reeder and Koa Farmer), or straight out of high school (Jake Cooper and Manny Bowen). Brandon Bell and Nyeem Wartman will most likely retain their positions on the outside unless Bob Shoop decides to move one of them to the middle. Either way, it's nice to see renewed depth at a position that barely had a two deep last year. Up on the line, both DE positions will need to be filled with the departures of C.J. Olaniyan and Deion Barnes, but the depth behind them is strong and with DL Coach Sean Spencer's epic rotation, those backups have a shocking amount of experience. I see some combination of Garrett Sickels, Carl Nassib, Torrance Brown, and Evan Schwan occupying the edges while most, if not all, of the freshmen redshirt. On the interior of the line, there's not much to say. I expect the dynamic duo of Anthony Zettel and Austin Johnson to have All-American caliber seasons while their backups receive a little more seasoning. The only potentially weak position on defense might be safety. However, Marcus Allen was an absolute freak as a true freshman a year ago, and rumor has it he'll be flanked by super-veteran Jordan Lucas who will be moved over from CB. That's a combination I can get behind! Add in a bevy of young talent at CB (Grant Haley, Christian Campbell, Garrett Taylor, and John Reid) and I have no worries that the 2015 defense will be as good, or better (scary, right?), than the 2014 edition.
The Special Teams
Aside from the fairy tale story and heroics of Sam Ficken, Special Teams was pretty awful for most of 2014. However, I expect that to change with more options at nearly every position. The Punter From Down Under (trademark!), Daniel Pasquariello returns with roughly half a season of starting experience under his belt. Although neither he nor Chris Gulla looked particularly good last year, a full offseason of practice can only help their development. Look for the Aussie to lock down punting duties for the foreseeable future. Speaking of Gulla, he will be competing with upwards of 6 walk-ons to replace the departed Ficken at place kicker. The favorite amongst them is Joe Julius, a surprisingly rotund freshman from Lower Dauphin. As boring as it might seem, this may be THE position battle to watch this Spring/Summer. Meanwhile, I expect the biggest gains to be made in the return game, both kickoffs and punts, where an ever-increasing list of speedsters seem to be coming out of the woodwork. CB Grant Haley took nearly every kickoff last season, but that doesn't guarantee his spot by any means, especially if his reps on defense increase. Instead, look for hidden gems like De'Andre Thompkins (the aforementioned WR) to breakout in a huge way. Other candidates include any of the backup or freshmen WRs, RBs, or even LBs who don't think they're getting enough playing time. Special Teams tends to serve as a proving ground for young skill position players looking to catch the eye of the coaching staff and eventually increase their roles elsewhere.
The Prediction
So, what does all this mean? Well, to start, it means a better season basically all-around. Limited loses, an influx of talent and speed, and a favorable schedule mean that I would be utterly shocked if the Nittany Lions didn't easily eclipse last season's 7-win total and 2-win Big Ten record, while returning to the post season in a more prominent bowl game. Now I'm not predicting a playoff berth, or even a spot in one of the "New Year's Six" games; it's still a little early for all that. On the other hand, 2015 should be much more fun than a season in which Penn State didn't win a single game from 9/20 - 11/8. Just looking at the schedule, the Lions should be favored in upwards of 10/12 games, although they'll probably lose a heartbreaker or two to someone like Michigan or Maryland. So I'll put the best case at 10 wins and the worst case at 8 wins. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they were 6-0 heading into their Oct 17th showdown at defending National Champion Ohio State. As for individual performances, I expect Christian Hackenberg to have a bounce back season in which he justifies all that NFL hype. Anthony Zettel and Austin Johnson should rocket up draft boards as their stats pile up, while Jordan Lucas and Nyeem Wartman look to step up their leadership roles as upperclassmen. On offense, I predict big things for TE Adam Breneman, WR Daesean Hamilton, and RB Akeel Lynch who provide a deadly three pronged attack. Finally, the breakout freshmen will undoubtedly be De'Andre Thompkins, either as a receiver or a return specialist.
That will about do it for today. Keep checking back in here on the blog for all the latest on Penn State football. Head on over to my Facebook page to give it a like or share. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!
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