Gator Bowl Prediction

*Quick note to start this post*
For all intents and purposes I consider myself a college football purist.  I love the tradition of the sport and therefore, most of my opinions trend conservative.  That is why I must respectfully refrain from using the name "Taxslayer.com Bowl" for Penn State's game tomorrow.  Instead, I will refer to it by its traditional name, the Gator Bowl.  That is all, now back to your regularly scheduled post.

James Franklin and company have traveled south for the winter and found themselves taking on the Georgia Bulldogs by the sunny beaches of Jacksonville, FL in the 2016 Gator Bowl.  Things kick off at noon tomorrow on ESPN.  This is the second bowl in a row for Penn State, and coach Franklin's fifth in a row going back to his days at Vanderbilt.  He's currently 3-1 and will look to go 4-1 for a very impressive postseason resume.  It's been a while so I'm shaking off the cobwebs.  Let's see how I do with this week's breakdown!

The Good
Georgia's non-conference matchups featured FCS team Southern, Sunbelt teams Louisiana-Monroe and Georgia Southern, and a 3-win Georgia Tech.  Needless to say, not the most impressive slate, even when matched up against Penn State's somewhat weak showing (which now looks much more impressive with the success of Temple).  Their three losses, on the other hand, came to Alabama, Florida, and Tennessee, all of which are very good teams (the Tide will be playing for the National Championship on January 11th).  Still, it's safe to say they were rarely tested this year, so they could be easy to catch off guard.  Aiding in that quest is the fact that the Dawgs will be playing with an interm coach after firing Mark Richt, who immediately found a new home in Miami.  This will actually be the fourth time that Penn State is playing a team who is missing their head coach this season (the others being Illinois, Maryland, and Rutgers).  Georgia's new coach, Kirby Smart, won't join the staff until after he's finished coaching Alabama in the Playoffs.  Instead, WRs coach Bryan McClendon will lead the team.  That's right, not a coordinator because in addition to missing their head man, UGA also lost their Offensive and Defensive coordinators.  Heck, even McClendon is on his way to South Carolina after the season, so who knows where his head is at.  They're also missing a number of players due to injury (like star RB Nick Chubb) and behavior issues.  Frankly, it's a disorganized mess down there right now, and that can only help the Nittany Lions' chances of coming away with a win.

The Bad
I started The Good section talking about Georgia's schedule, so it's only fair to start this section talking about our own.  Penn State's only "good" win this year was over San Diego State, who won 9 games and the Mountain West Conference title.  Otherwise, they beat who they were supposed to beat and lost to who they were supposed to lose to.  Since Georgia is currently favored by the so-called experts, there's plenty of reason to be worried that PSU will play down to the expectations and come out flat, especially considering they're in the middle of a three game losing streak to end the regular season.  How they finish in this bowl game could play a key role in determining how the offseason will go, and consequently next year.

The Bulldogs signal caller is a talented, but unherolded player in Greyson Lambert.  He's completed 64.4% of his passes for 1,844 yds and 11 TDs.  When given time, he can pick people apart and set up the rest of Georgia's traditionally run-heavy offensive attack.  And he usually has time behind his talented offensive line that has only given up 9 total sacks this season.  Still, Lambert is a traditional pocket passer, which bodes well for the pressure style of defense Bob Shoop likes to employ.

On defense, UGA defends against the pass better than just about anyone, allowing just 146.1 yds per game through the air.  I'll be interesting to see how Hackenberg and the "flight squad" handle a stout back seven featuring safety Dominick Sanders, and LBs like Jake Ganus, Tim Kimbrough, and Leonard Floyd.  I'm tempted to say this will be one of the best defenses Penn State will play this season, but they also played Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, and Ohio State... so yeah, they've been here before.  All of those games ended in losses, so you can do the math.

The Story
Well, the big story is that these two "blue blood" programs have only ever met once before, in the 1983 Sugar Bowl, where Joe Paterno and his QB Todd Blackledge led Penn State to their first ever National Championship.  Although it may have taken that long to get a title, bowl games are a different story.  The Nittany Lions are actually tied for 3rd all-time in bowl wins, with an overall record of 28-15-2.  24 of those wins came under Joe Paterno, who not only coached his Lions to more postseason victories than anyone in college football history, but also more bowl wins than all but 8 entire schools!

Joe Paterno after winning his first National Championship

This is the first SEC opponent James Franklin will face since coaching in the SEC with Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are in the same division as Georgia so Franklin had to face them all three years he was in Nashville.  We'll have to wait and see if that familiarity pays off.  Speaking of familiarity, Georgia actually plays Florida every year in "the world's largest outdoor cocktail party," a game played at this very stadium in Jacksonville.  They played here just a few weeks ago, so they definitely know the layout.  However, keep in mind that the Jacksonville Jaguars currently have more former Nittany Lions on their roster than any other NFL team.  And it just so happens that this game will be played in their home stadium.  At least three of them took time out of their schedules to hang out with the current squad at a lunchin as part of the bowl game festivities.  Maybe their mojo will rub off and give the team a kind of karmic home field advantage.

The Prediction
Penn State opens as 7.5 point underdogs.  I don't get it.  We have no idea what Georgia's coaching staff will even look like and they're still favored?  Whatever Vegas.  The Nittany Lions are rested and healed up after a few weeks off.  In all the pictures and videos I've seen of them at the bowl site, they've looked ready and confident.  I honestly think we have a strong chance to win this one.  This will likely be Christian Hackenberg's last game in the blue and white, and he's made it a point over his career to save his best for last (against Wisconsin and Boston College).  I think he'll throw for just under 200 yds, with Chris Godwin as the leading WR.  Saquon Barkley looks to be at 100% and he should have a monster day, going for over 150 yds and at least 1 TD.  A healthy defensive line dominates the Bulldog front and harasses their QB all afternoon.  They're a talented team, so they'll get their shots in, but in the end, I think Penn State takes this one 20-13.  All hail your new Gator Bowl Champions!

*Another quick side note*
Carl Nassib will officially join Jordan Lucas in the Senior Bowl, college football's premier post season all-star game.  Congrats to both men on this prestigious invite!

Ok, I think that will do it for tonight.  Check back on Monday for my Bowl wrap up.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!