Week 9 Prediction

Ever since Penn State ditched their traditional Northeast rivals and joined the Big Ten the Nittany Lion faithful have searched for a new rivalry to quench their hate-lust.  You see, in the NFL, rivalries aren't all that important.  In college football, however, they mean everything!  Most PSU fans hated the “rivalry” with Michigan State that was essentially forced on us by the conference (the world’s ugliest trophy didn't exactly help matters).  On the other hand, one conference team has stood out to most people as Penn State’s top rival, especially over the last 10 years or so: Ohio State.  Besides being our closest geographic conference opponent, they’re also the proverbial king of the mountain in the Big Ten.  And, as the old theory goes, when you’re new in prison, find the biggest, baddest guy in the yard and knock him out!  Hence, the only way for Penn State to ascend to their rightful Big Ten throne was to consistently beat the big boy on the block, Ohio State… unfortunately, it wasn't that easy.  Still, even during the admittedly impressive Jim Tressel years, Penn State has had by far the most success against the Buckeye behemoth out of any conference team with victories in ’01, ’05, ’08, and ’11 (the last 2 of which were at Ohio State).  Now don’t kid yourselves, Michigan will always be Ohio State’s biggest rival.  Trying to top “the game” is a futile endeavor.  Additionally, Penn Staters will always hate Pitt above all else, even if we don’t play them anymore.  But this Saturday, in primetime on ABC, the “other” rivalry returns and fans for both teams couldn't be happier!

That’s right, after a rare second bye week, it’s time to get back to playing football and what an incredible “welcome back” this will be.  Ohio State is currently ranked #4 in the nation.  They went undefeated last year and haven’t lost a game so far this year.  That gives them the country’s current longest wining streak at 19 games in a row.  Don’t be fooled, though!  This team has plenty of question marks, although they’re not nearly as glaring as Penn State’s.  With that being said let’s get to the break down.

The Good

Unlike Alabama, Oregon, and even Florida St (the teams ranked ahead of OSU), the Buckeyes have looked beatable numerous times, both last year and this year.  Their offense can score on anyone, but their defense is still very young.  Outside of star cornerback Bradley Roby, the secondary is probably Ohio State’s weakest unit.  Heck, even Roby hasn't been as good this season as he was last year.  Check out his stats verses Wisconsin star receiver Jared Abbrederis.  It will be interesting to see if Penn State’s own star receiver Allen Robinson can continue putting up crazy numbers against an elite defensive back in Roby.  In other news, last week Iowa’s tight ends gave Ohio State fits while Penn State rested.  Hmm, who has possibly the best TE group in the conference?  Yeah, that would be Penn State.  Expect to see the big fellas a lot in this game.  Don’t, however, expect this to be a surprise to Urban Meyer.  He said this week that defending the tight ends has been one of his defense’s top priorities going into the game.  Let’s hope he’s wrong.

The Bad

This game will be close, and that might be the hardest pill for fans to swallow as it will feel winnable.  Unfortunately, in years past, even when the Buckeyes looked soft against significantly weaker opponents, they always brought their A-game when it was time to play the Lions.  That led to some big let downs and blowout losses.  The difference this time around is that instead of a somewhat boring defensive struggle between old-schoolers Jim Tressel and Joe Paterno, we may be in for a high octane shootout between offensive gurus Urban Meyer and Bill O’Brien.  Meanwhile, although I hate him with a passion, Braxton Miller is a bonafide FREAK!  And he’s got weapons all around him including Carlos Hyde, one of the best running backs in the league.  On defense, Ohio State’s defensive line may be young, but it includes studs like Adolphus Washington and Noah Spence.  The Buckeye defense also includes All-American linebacker candidate Ryan Shazier.  This will be BY FAR the hardest test that the Lions will face this season, and chances are they probably won’t pass it.

The Story

Outside of Beaver Stadium, Ohio Stadium (affectionately known as “the Horseshoe”) may have the best game day atmosphere in the country, and just like Beaver Stadium, it only gets better at night.  As long as Penn State can keep it close, this will likely be just another in a long line of instant classics between these two powerhouses.  I’m interested in seeing how Hackenberg responds.  He has been uncharacteristically poised all season long, especially for a true freshman and has definitely earned every ounce of praise thrown his way.  Still, I doubt he’ll be able to handle primetime at the ‘Shoe against one of the best teams in the country.  I expect at least one costly turnover by night’s end, be it a strange fumble or a poorly thrown interception.  I’ll also be very interested to see how our offensive line handles former Penn State recruit Noah Spence.  A lifelong Nittany Lion fan, Spence decommitted after the Jerry Sandusky scandal broke.  It would feel great to see one of our running backs put up a 100 spot on Spence and company, although I doubt that will happen as the Buckeyes sport the 3^rd best rushing defense in the conference.

The Prediction

Hackenberg gets some shots hitting both Allen Robinson and Jesse James for TDs.  Even with the dreaded “OR” between Zach Zwinak and Bill Belton’s names on this week’s depth chart, I say Zwinak bounces back after being benched against Michigan and scores 2 TDs.  Felder has a big day going for 100 yds as Ohio State’s secondary focuses a little too much on Robinson.  Similarly, I think the Buckeye offensive line will be too focused on Da’Quan Jones and forget about the ends.  That’s why, despite being silent for most of the season, I predict Deion Barnes will have a big night and pick up a sack.  But in the end, Ohio State just has too many weapons at their disposal.  They wear down Penn State by the 4^th quarter and get the win in front of their home crowd.  Final score: OSU 38 – PSU 31 

*Note: The only other time I’ve predicted a loss so far this season (Michigan) we ended up winning… let’s hope I’m wrong again.