The bye week is over and it's once again time for some Penn State football! This week, the Nittany Lions travel (with the entire Blue Band in tow) to Ann Arbor for a night time clash with the Michigan Wolverines. The game kicks off at 7pm on ESPN2. What was originally thought to be the best road game on the schedule has lost a substantial amount of luster in recent weeks, but we'll get to more about that in a minute.
Before we begin, there was some breaking recruiting news this week that I wanted to mention, and it actually ties into my last post. 4-star QB Brandon Wimbush has decommitted from the Nittany Lions in favor of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish after his recent visit to South Bend. This is a moderate blow because Wimbush appears to be an elite talent in the duel-threat model that James Franklin seems to prefer. However, I don't think it will be that big of a deal. Truth be told, I was nervous about Wimbush coming in and causing either Trace McSorely or Michael O'Connor to transfer. Now the Lions are in a much better position to keep both QBs on the roster and pick up a QB in the 2016 class instead. So it's a blow to the balance of the current recruiting class, but it might work out for the best in the long run. Whatever happens with Wimbush I'm sure of one thing, he's not going to Michigan. And on that note, let's get to the breakdown!
The Good
The Nittany Lions may be coming off an embarrassing loss to Northwestern on Homecoming, but they were also the benefactors of a bye week which allowed them to diagnose and fix whatever mistakes have been holding them back. That means not only do they get additional time for game prep, but they also get additional time to heal up from any lingering injuries that may have been affecting their play. In particular, LB Nyeem Wartman appears to be over his arm injury and back in the starting rotation. Mike Hull and company seemed a little lost against the Wildcats without Wartman cleaning up the passing game. Having him back should prove to be huge for the defense.
Michigan's starting RB Derrick Green is officially out for the rest of the season with a broken clavicle. This could mean that an already mediocre rushing attack might become even more ineffective, especially when pitted against the 2nd best rush defense in the country lead by MMA trained DT Anthony Zettel. In fact, Michigan's terrible offense has been the primary on-field story of 2014. They currently lead the nation in turnover margin giving the ball away 13 more times than they've stolen it. Most of those turnovers have come at the hands of QB Devin Gardner, who has looked like a shell of his former self all season. So an ever-improving Penn State secondary should be looking at a decent game. Speaking of secondaries, last week the Wolverines allowed Rutgers QB Gary Nova to throw for 404 yds, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs (as opposed to the 5 he threw against Penn State) en route to their third consecutive loss. In case you need reminding, Gary Nova is not Christian Hackenberg.
Oh, and here's a coaching stat for you: in his 3 years at Vanderbilt, James Franklin went 3-1 after a bye week with his only loss coming to defending National Champion Alabama. Take that for what it's worth, but it would seem the man knows what he's doing when it comes to having a week off.
The Bad
As has been discussed ad nauseam, Penn State's offensive line is terrible and they won't get fifth year senior Miles Dieffenbach back until at the earliest the Ohio State game, and that's by even the most optimistic estimates. Consequently the running game is still stuck in neutral, if not reverse, and Hackenberg's well being is an ever present concern. The bye week may have helped with some of these issues, but that's doubtful. Let's just hope we don't end up with another GIF of our guys blocking each other after this week.
Although the aforementioned Devin Gardner has been a one man dumpster fire of late, his ability to pull the ball down and run still makes him a very dangerous threat for opposing defenses to deal with. In last year's thrilling 4OT game at Beaver Stadium, he ran for 121 yds, the most of his career. When not running it himself, Gardner's favorite receiving target is converted TE now WR Devin Funchess, who in that same game smoked the PSU defense for 112 yds and 2 TDs. Watch out for that Devin to Devin connection. Defensively, LB Jake Ryan is now a fifth year senior and just as impactful as ever. He's second on the team in tackles and tackles for a loss while continuing to terrorize opposing QBs on blitzes. We've heard all about Ryan's potential ever since 2012 and you never know when he's going to live up to it. Up on the defensive line, keep an eye out for DT Frank Clark who currently has 6.5 tackles for a loss. If he can get pressure on Hack, which is quite likely, the Lions' offense could be in for a long and frustrating night.
The Story
I don't exactly know if this next topic is a "good" or a "bad" thing. I guess it all depends upon your perspective. Either way, I'm just going to leave it here. As previously mentioned, Michigan is a complete train-wreck right now, and for a multitude of reasons. Chief among them is the employment status of head coach Brady Hoke. Hoke played football at Michigan and after 3 years of the failed Rich Rodriguez experiment, fans were clamoring for a real "Michigan Man" to take over the storied program and return it to glory. They got what they wanted in Hoke, who pleasantly surprised in his first year on the job by going 11-2 with a victory over Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl. However, after that initial success, he immediately began trending downwards with 8 and 7 win seasons the next two years. This, despite bringing in heralded recruiting classes with top flight talent each year. Those stats, combined with a historically bad start to the current season and a "scandal" revolving around the increasingly touchy subject of player safety, have essentially guaranteed that Hoke will lose his job at the end of the year.
So how does that affect the game this week? Well, because one of two things is going to happen. Either Michigan's players circles the proverbial wagons and rally around their coach to come out playing inspired, or more likely in my opinion, they see the writing on the wall and come out completely flat in front of a half-filled stadium with no energy (thanks to a planned student protest). We'll have to wait and see, but this much is for sure, the instability and uncertainty of the Michigan psyche right now can't be helpful to Penn State's game preparations. It's like trying to identify the trends of schizophrenic.
Thankfully there are some lighter stories surrounding this game. Now for those of you who don't know, Michigan's colors are "maize" (essentially yellow or "gold") and blue, and I have a number of problems with this. First, apparently these idiots need to be reminded that CORN IS NOT A COLOR! Seriously, just say "blue and gold," it's not that hard. The second problem I have is, despite the fact that maize is represented almost equally along with blue on their uniforms and in their other branding materials, Michigan still uses "go Blue" as their official cheer (similar to our "We are" cheer). Why do you have to single out just one color, jerks? More to that point, school officials have called for a "maize out" on Saturday. So not only are they strangely recognizing the color they usually ignore with their cheer, but they're using it to desperately try copying one of Penn State's greatest recent traditions. I know imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, but that's still pretty lame. Oh, and they're wearing new uniforms too, which has just become cliche at this point, but have fun with that I guess.
The Prediction
Ok, the general consensus seems to be that this will be a relatively low scoring (the over-under is 41), extremely ugly affair with two offenses struggling to move the ball. Well I agree. But what many other prognosticators seem to forget is that Penn State thrives in ugly games decided by defense. Say what you will about the close victories against Rutgers and UCF this year, but last I checked there's still a W next to each of those games. Still, with everything surrounding this game it might be nearly impossible to predict what's going to happen. So here goes nothing. Christian Hackenberg throws for 250 yds with a TD pass to Daesean Hamilton, the first of his young career. One of the RBs, I'm going with Bill Belton, punches in another TD, but it's all Sam Ficken after that. On the other side of the ball, I expect a very good to great day from a well-rested defense. Mike Hull continues his streak as the team's leading rusher and Anthony Zettel gives voters even more reasons to select him as Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year recording 2 tackles for a loss and 1 sack. Oh, and Ryan Keiser picks off Devin Gardner on an otherwise promising drive. The Michigan fanbase goes into full blown revolt mode and it becomes increasingly evident that neither Brady Hoke, nor Athletic Director Dave Brandon, will even make it to the end of the season with a job. Penn State wins 20-13.
That will do it for this week's prediction. Be sure to check back on Sunday for the weekly wrap up. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus for all the latest breaking news about Penn State football, and as always, go State!
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