Week 8 Prediction

Happy Halloween Nittany Nation!  It's time to break out the candy, carve up the pumpkins, and get ready for a showdown in Spooky Valley.  This week the Maryland Terrapins (a fancy name for turtles) come to town for a noon kick that will be broadcast on ESPN2.  Unfortunately, known Penn State hater Joey Galloway has the call, so expect plenty of eye-rolling commentary from him throughout the game.  For those of you making the trek to Beaver Stadium, the weather forecast looks pretty ugly and calls for cold, windy conditions, so be sure to bundle up.  With their Under Armour money, the Terps have taken a page out of Oregon's playbook and never seem to wear the same uniform twice.  Thus fittingly, they appear to be wearing costumes to every game.  No word yet on what they'll breakout this week, but you can be sure it will feature the state flag much more prominently than their school mascot.  With that, let's get to the breakdown.

Hackenberg (my pet turtle) is a diehard Nittany Lions fan, but feels conflicted when forced to root against the Terrapins.

The Good:

Maryland's rushing attack is one of the worst amongst Power 5 teams.  Although Penn State's ground game is even worse, at least they won't be trying to run against one of the top rushing defenses in the country.  In fact, Maryland's defense gives up an average of 212 yds per game on the ground, so maybe Bill Belton and Akeel Lynch will actually have some success in this one.  I expect the Terps' offense will most likely rely on the arm of QB C.J. Brown, who is coming off bad games against Wisconsin and Iowa.  Brown is also banged up at the moment with back and wrist injuries.  If he can't go tomorrow, backup Caleb Rowe will step in.  Rowe is experienced, having thrown 54 pass attempts already this year, but he lacks the mobility of Brown if he's pressured.

All time, Penn State is 35-1-1 against Maryland, so we've played them a lot, but it's certainly not a rivalry yet.  In fact, the teams last met in 1993 when the Lions decimated the Terps 70-7 in front of their home crowd.  That's embarrassing  Just like with Rutgers, this will be the first time these former northeast boarder schools will meet as co-members of the Big Ten.  Also just like Rutgers, Penn State loves to poach all the best players out of Maryland's backyard.  Former greats like Derek Williams and Stephon Morris are from Maryland, as are 9 current players on the PSU roster.  #DominateTheRegion!

The Bad:

By far, Maryland's most talented and talked about player is WR Stefon Diggs who is also one of the most dangerous return men in the country.  I have confidence in Jordan Lucas and the secondary to handle Diggs as a receiver, but his play making abilities in the return game coupled with Penn State's awful punting of late could spell doom for Penn State's special teams.  The coverage teams will have to play their best game to keep Diggs in check and prevent a return for a TD.  And speaking of special teams, Maryland's kicker Brad Craddock is perfect on the season in extra points and FGs, including a 57-yarder verse Ohio State.  Yikes!  We could be in trouble if it all comes down to trading FGs in overtime, as it has so many times in Beaver Stadium.  Defensively, watch out for D-lineman Andre Monroe.  He has 6.5 sacks so far this year and will try to test our offensive line, as many others have done successfully, and force Hack into bad decisions.

The big thing that could prove harmful to the team, though, is pure emotional exhaustion from last week's insane effort.  They beat themselves down physically and mentally trying to get a win that never came.  Now they take on a team with more than enough talent to steal the victory if they're not careful.  In other words, this could turn into a let down game real quick.  At least it's not on the road or I'd be even more scared of this scenario.

The Story:

When James Franklin graduated from East Sroudsburg in 1994, he decided to spend the next 6 years paying his dues as an assistant coach at 6 different small colleges (including his alma mater, and Kutztown).  He finally got his first big coaching break at Maryland, originally as the WRs coach from 2000-2004.  It was here that he first met another promising young assistant, RBs coach Bill O'Brien, and we all know what happened with that guy.  After a brief stint with the NFL's Green Bay Packers, Franklin came back to Maryland in 2008 to serve as the Offensive Coordinator under Ralph Friedgen.  He would eventually earn the title of "coach in waiting" as the presumed successor to Friedgen.  However, in 2010, despite an 8-4 record and being named ACC Coach of the Year, the Maryland administration made the fateful decision to fire Friedgen and bring in UConn's Randy Edsel instead of promoting Franklin.  Suddenly jobless, Franklin took his talents to Vanderbilt (his first head coaching gig) where he took one of the most historically bad programs in college football and led them to 3 straight bowl games (including 2 victories) and 2 consecutive 9 win seasons.  That got the attention of some big name schools looking for new coaches, and obviously this past January, Franklin came to Penn State.  Earlier in the season, Franklin beat his old boss, Friedgen, who is now the OC at Rutgers.  Now, he squares off against his old team, which still has a small handful of players he recruited.  But my biggest take away is how different things would be right now if Maryland had decided to give Franklin a chance.

The Prediction:

Ok, currently Penn State is favored by 3.5 points, which is essentially the automatic advantage given to home teams, so expect a really close game.  Hackenberg has one of his better days and hits the 300 yd mark.  Daesean Hamilton outplays Stefon Diggs and scores a TD.  Akeel Lynch gets the bulk of the carries and thanks to a porous Terrapin run defense, actually has a decent game rushing for 80 yds.  And we see the return of Miles Deiffenbach!  The Defense avoids the let down after an emotional game against Ohio State and shuts down Maryland.  Zettel misses a hat trick of interceptions but Jordan Lucas manages to steal a pick because they're targeting Diggs too much.  Oh, and Mike Hull leads the team in tackles once again.  Penn State snaps the losing streak to start off November right, Lions win 23-17.  

Enjoy the Trick-or-Treaters and costume parties, but don't stay out too late; we got an early kick tomorrow.  Head on over to Facebook and like my new page, don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!