Week 7 Prediction

In the words of Emerson, Lake, and Palmer - welcome back my friends to the show that never ends, we're so glad you could attend, come inside, come inside!  That's right, after the second and final bye week of the season, we're back here on the blog just in time to preview possibly the biggest game of the year.  The Ohio State Buckeyes come into Happy Valley for a primetime clash in front of a sold out White House crowd!  The game kicks off at 8pm on ABC and Penn State's own Todd Blackledge will be providing the commentary.  Now for those of you who just read that and thought "President Obama's coming?!" here's a little background on the history of Penn State's version of the White House.  Unlike last year's thrilling 4 OT victory over Michigan, the Nittany Lions most likely won't be celebrating a win this year as Ohio State is favored by 14 points, the largest home spread against Penn State in program history.  But we'll get to more of that in a minute.  In the meantime, #OhioStateHateWeek is in full swing and the folks over at OnwardState have made an epic compilation of the most hilarious tweets floating around the Twittersphere.  My personal favorite is "Urban Meyer hands out pretzel bags on Halloween" because what jerk does that?!

Now personally, I used the time off to fly down to Fort Myers, FL (thankfully not spelled the same as Urban Meyer) to try and forget about the current state of the program for a while.  Coming off 2 consecutive losses sandwiched in between a pair of bye weeks, you wouldn't blame most of Nittany Nation for feeling a bit down in the dumps.  Yet spirits seemed at an all time high when I got back to PA as Nittanyville is in full swing outside Gate A with over 800 student campers and nearly 100 tents.  The alumni are ready too, with a stream of RVs descending upon the tailgating fields since yesterday.  Add in the fact that Rally in the Valley will rock Rec Hall tonight and you'd almost think we have a shot in this one!  As I said, the game is sold out and this match up of border rivals is actually the most expensive ticket in the country at an average of $166, narrowly beating out the other notable Big Ten game of the week, Michigan vs Michigan State, by a single dollar.

Anyway, before we get to the meat of today's post, here are some quick links to get you caught up on all things Penn State football:
- First up, with the biggest home game of the year on deck, there is plenty of recruiting news to go around.  More than 100 prospects are expected to be in attendance, which is a lot of names to digest.  Thankfully, Black Shoe Diaries has you covered with this incredible Recruiting RoundUp.
- Next, it wouldn't be a real Penn State game without the Blue Band, which was just ranked as the real "best damn band in the land" (sorry, not sorry OSU Band) in a recent USA Today poll.  Finally, the band geeks are getting some love!
- Last but not least, it's the 10 year anniversary of one of the strangest games ever played in Beaver Stadium.  I was actually in attendance on Oct 23, 2004 as the Iowa Hawkeyes beat Penn State 6-4... seriously.  Good ol' ESPN has the strange story of that game with memories from the players and coaches who were there.  That 2004 Penn State team was a lot like the current squad, so definitely check that out.

Alright, with all of that out of the way, let's get to this week's breakdown!

The Good
A few times this season we've played cupcakes and I've said that there isn't much bad to write about.  Well, for the first time this year, there's not much good to write about.  Look, we're going to get smashed, plain and simple, especially after what the Buckeyes just got done doing to Rutgers, a team we barely beat.  Don't get me wrong, the Buckeyes aren't invincible.  After all, Ohio State lost in week 2 to a Virginia Tech team that's looking pretty awful right now.  There are things to learn from that game, and it proves these nuts can be cracked.  The key, it would seem, is defense.  Virginia Tech was the best defense OSU has faced this season by a wide margin, and Penn State's defense is even better than the Hokies by about the same margin.  I would say the best reasons for optimism that Penn State might beat the spread, or even somehow win the game, are the White House crowd and our lights out defense.  They currently stand as the #1 rush defense in the country and lead the Big Ten in a number of other defensive categories.  A win is possible if both the offense and defense play their best games, but that's not exactly likely.

What else is good?  Well, there might (and I emphasize the "might") be some help coming to the Lions' beleaguered offensive line.  Injured OG Miles Dieffenbach has been practicing this week, although with James Franklin's firm stance on not discussing injuries, your guess is as good as mine on the fifth-year senior's status.  The only thing Coach Franklin has said regarding Dieffenbach is that, should he return to game action, he'll be phased in slowly.  Considering how much help the line needs right now, anything would be greatly appreciated.  Either way, I think we're all just glad to see Miles' baby face back in uniform instead of street clothes.

Oh, and in case you were wondering, Urban Meyer is really impressed with Beaver Stadium.

The Bad
Where do I begin?  By far the biggest thing to watch on Saturday night is how Penn State's undersized and inexperienced offensive line holds up against arguably the best defensive line in the nation.  That's not hyperbole either.  The Buckeye defensive line is nasty and filled with elite players, many of whom seriously considered and even committed to PSU before the sanctions came out.  And when they all left for Ohio State, they took our legendary defensive line coach, Larry Johnson, with them.  That means they're about to do to us what our D line used to do to other teams consistently under LJ's tutelage, and without a competent O line, I honestly fear for Hack's safety.  On one hand, we can thank the football gods that Noah Spence has been indefinitely suspended.  On the other hand, Michael Bennett and Joey Bosa are still very active, and both are playing at an All-American level right now.  Check out this piece on Coach Johnson and his terrifying brood if you needed even more to be worried about.

Offensively things don't look much better.  Ohio State has put up 50 or more points in each of their last four contests, albeit against much weaker defenses than Penn State.  In the offseason, when star QB, and Heisman hopeful Braxton Miller went down with a shoulder injury, most experts wrote off the Buckeyes.  After the aforementioned loss to Virginia Tech, redshirt freshman JT Barrett flipped a switch and started lighting up scoreboards with ease.  Currently he's thrown 17 TDs (12 more than Hackenberg) and not only has he effectively stolen the "Heisman candidate" moniker from Miller, but the rumors have begun about a potential QB battle next year when Braxton comes back.  Still, the youngster hasn't played in an atmosphere like Beaver Stadium at night, and he definitely hasn't played in front of a crowd like the one he'll see tomorrow.  It will be interesting to see how he holds up under the pressure.  Another player the offense was looking to replace was RB Carlos Hyde, who was the first RB taken in the most recent NFL draft.  Ezekiel Elliott has stepped in and turned plenty of heads so far.  However, I'll save my critique for after he's met up with Anthony Zettel and friends.

The Story
Could this maybe be the opposite of the Michigan game?  Just follow me here.  This time we're the home team, in primetime, with the night game crowd on our side, playing a favored team, while in the middle of a rough losing streak.  Can we circle the wagons too and pull out the upset victory?  Realistically no, but it sure would be awesome!

As mentioned before, Larry Johnson will be on the OSU sideline, which will be weird to say the least.  He seems excited about coming back to the Beav, but that must be easy when your team is a heavy favorite.  Speaking of sidelines, Offensive Coordinator John Donovan will be coaching from the sideline for this game instead of up in the press box.  This will be the second game in a row that he's done this, even though James Franklin said in his weekly press conference that some communication is lost on the sideline because coaches can't see the big picture as well.  In spite of that, apparently Hack is more comfortable with his playcaller down on the field, and what Hack wants, Hack gets.  He seems to have gotten so used to having O'Brien in his ear after every drive last season that maybe having the OC right there instead of on a telephone will help him correct mistakes on the fly and get into a groove faster.  Here's hoping!

The Prediction
Despite all my doom and gloom in this post, I would honestly be shocked if we saw a similar score to the 63-14 beat down handed to us in Columbus last year.  For starters, Penn State's defense then wasn't even close to this year's iteration.  Even if our offensive line can't get it together and the offense gets shut out, there is no way Bob Shoop's defense lets up more than 40 points, if not significantly fewer.  That doesn't mean it will be a close game, just that I can't envision another collapse of that magnitude.  So what will happen?  Christian Hackenberg better put on his track shoes because he'll be running all night long.  Remember that season high 6 sacks by Michigan?  Expect that record to fall.  But somehow, some way, Hackenberg gets enough time on one magical drive to put one in the endzone to Geno Lewis.  Sam Ficken gets a FG in there as well, but that's all you hear out of the offense.  Meanwhile, the White House crowd frustrates a still young JT Barrett as he throws 2 interceptions, 1 of which is returned for a TD.  It's just not enough, though, as the Buckeyes suffocating defense forces plenty of 3-and-outs and their offense catches our boys off guard more than a few times.  No miracle stunner here, Ohio State wins 38-17.

Hopefully I'm wrong about this one.  Check back on Sunday for the weekly wrap up to find out.  Make sure to like and share my brand new Facebook page, don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Week 6 Awards

Spoiler alert, the defense almost managed a clean sweep of the awards, which would be expected given the current state of the offense.  Yes, we get one last chance to dwell on the Michigan game.  However, there is some good news to start off today's post.  Three Nittany Lions were just named to the ESPN Mid-Season All-Big Ten Team!  And strangely enough, all three are the recipients of awards today.  Seriously, this is just coincidence, I pick my award winners on Sunday and this list came out today.  Anyway, Daesean Hamilton joins Michigan State's Tony Lippett at WR, Mike Hull takes one of the three LB spots, and of course, Anthony Zettel lines up next to Iowa's Carl Davis at DT.  Congrats to all three players on this well-deserved honor!  Now, let's roll out some awards! 

This week's Beast Mode Award goes to the superhuman tackling machine Mike Hull who led the team in tackles yet again and had an epic sack.  He's now second in the conference with 64 tackles on the year and as I said yesterday, is holding up the Linebacker U banner quite admirably.

I always have to really think on the Transformer Award since I still haven't set firm criteria for it.  This week I decided to give it to Anthony Zettel for transforming into an MMA fighting, pass intercepting, All-Big Ten recognizing phenomenon!  He may be undersized for a DT, but he's got the heart of a Lion and an unstoppable motor.  Oh, and unlike Mike Hull, he's only a junior! 

You know, I really wanted to give this award to Chris Godwin but he completely disappointed on Saturday.  Instead, the Matrix Award goes to Daesean Hamilton for the second time this season.  The redshirt freshman finally scored his first collegiate TD against Michigan.  Yep you heard right, despite leading the Big Ten in total catches with 43, and being second in the Big Ten in yards per game (only trailing fellow Penn Stater Geno Lewis), Hamilton had not scored a single point this entire season until Saturday.  If he can step his game up just a little more, he'll be moving up to the Beast Mode Award soon.

Next up, the In Disguise Award goes to the too oft forgotten Deion Barnes.  The former Freshman of the Year Award winner finally got over his sophomore slump and is back to playing up to his potential, whether the "experts" want to acknowledge it or not.  Unlike Zettel, he probably won't make any All-Big Ten teams, but against Michigan he was tied for second on the team with 7 tackles, including 1 for a loss and a sack.  Not bad.

Finally, the Megatron Award goes to the Referees, particularly David Witvoet, who has been making an entire career out screwing Penn State over against the Wolverines.  Here is a piece from 2002 about his history with the Penn State-Michigan series through the 90s.  Witvoet's crew was also on hand in 2005 to put the infamous 2 seconds back on the clock that eventually gave Michigan the victory.  And now we have the mystery offsides call of 2014.  Seriously, how has this not been addressed by league officials yet?  One time and you could claim it was an accident, but there's clearly a pattern developing here.

Well, thankfully Michigan week is over.  The Nittany Lions now enter their second and final bye week of the season as they prepare for an 8pm primetime clash with the Ohio State Buckeyes in a Beaver Stadium Whiteout!  Should be fun, and maybe the atmosphere will jump start this offense back to life.  Remember that I'm now on the Book of Faces.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Week 6 Grades

We are exactly half way through the 2014 season and we're back on our second bye week.  Good thing too, as everyone tries to pick up the pieces and figure out exactly what went wrong in Ann Arbor.  Things have gotten so bad that some writers are questioning whether or not the Nittany Lions can even win 2 more games and go to a long awaited and well deserved bowl game.  With Temple and Illinois left on the schedule I'm not going that far just yet.  Still, it's concerning.

But before we begin we have some sad recruiting news.  There haven’t been too many positive story lines to come out of the recruiting process for Penn State lately, and unfortunately today will be no exception.  3-star safety Myles Hartsfield has been dropped by the Penn State coaching staff.  The move comes on the heels of a football scandal currently engulfing Hartsfield's high school Sayreville War Memorial in New Jersey.  If you aren't familiar with the story, the football team's entire season has been cancelled pending an investigation into alleged hazing and sexual abuse of underclassmen by upperclassmen (like Hartsfield).  Given that James Franklin just got finished testifying last week in a rape trial against five of his former Vanderbilt players, it's pretty obvious why the coaches were forced to make this decision.  Hartsfield was one of the lowest rated prospects in the 2015 class, so thankfully this isn't the end of the world, but it still caused Penn State's overall class ranking to drop down to #10 in the nation.  Can we PLEASE get some good recruiting news soon?  This is starting to get really depressing.  Anyway, let's move on and roll out some grades!

Offense

QB: (C-) After six games, teams pretty much know where they stand.  For example, we know what's going on with the offensive line, but at some point, that needs to stop being an excuse.  Hackenberg looks scared shitless on nearly every play, especially compared to the incredible poise he showed last season.  That may be understandable given the hits he's taken but it's no reason to just drop back and stand there like a deer in headlights.  Overall he seems to have simply lost his pocket awareness.  When he sees pressure coming he either braces for impact and takes the sack, or if a defender catches him he focuses on breaking the tackle instead of making the throw.  Hey Christian, you're a pocket passer, not a duel-threat.  Keep your eyes down field and get rid of the damn ball!  Oh, and when you do throw the ball, could you please stop throwing it at everyone's feet?

OL: (F-) This is the second game in a row that I am giving this group an F-, which isn't even a real grade.  If I could find a worse grade, they would get it.  Halfway through the season Hackenberg has been sacked a whopping 20 times, and that's just the official number.  That doesn't include hurries, pressures, and forced scrambles.  Here's another situation where excuses need to stop.  We get it, you're extremely inexperienced due in large part to the NCAA sanctions, but you're still Division I football players at one of the traditional power schools.  You have elite facilities, a state of the art weight room, and a proven coach in Herb Hand.  Get it together already!

RB: (D) Here we have another unit that is unfairly dependent on the offensive line.  We know they can be good because they proved it the last 2 seasons.  Nevertheless, this could be arguably the worst rushing attack Penn State has ever fielded.  That's not an exaggeration.  The Penn State football program was built on strong defensive and an excellent ground game, so it's always been there, but we only have half of that equation right now.

WR: (B-) The lone saving grace here was Daesean Hamilton who continues to impress and finally got his much deserved first career TD!  Meanwhile, the rest of this group came out flat and never recovered.  Chris Godwin and Saeed Blacknall were completely ineffective with additional playing time and the coaching staff refused to put Geno Lewis in the game until late in the 3rd quarter.  Lots of pundits are starting to claim we don't have enough offensive weapons, but I disagree.  We just have no way to accurately judge their abilities until Hack is given time to get them the ball.

TE: (C+) Apparently, you wouldn't know it from watching the game (as evidenced by the people complaining online), but Jesse James actually had 3 catches for 25 yards.  At the mid-season point, he's done enough on the field to stay on the Mackey Award watch list, given to the nation's top TE.  It's incredible to think what his monstrous size, strength, and athleticism could do if he weren't stuck helping the offensive line block all the time.  The same could be said for Mike Gesicki, who added 2 catches, and Kyle Carter, who had 1.

Defense

DL: (A) As I mentioned in the Wrap Up yesterday, the defense is completely holding this team together right now.  Anthony Zettel continued his dominance on Saturday and is starting to really pick up a lot of media attention.  Deion Barnes and C.J. Olaniyan are a terrifying duo from the edge, and massive 6' 4", 302 lbs Austin Johnson cleans up the middle.  Even more impressive is the depth.  Four different backups combined for 5 tackles, 2 for a loss, and a sack.  All of that is after sacrificing 2 guys to the offensive line!

LB: (A) I'm just about out of nice things to say about Mike Hull.  The man is a tackling freak and proudly upholding the Linebacker U tradition.  Once again, as I predicted, he led the team in tackles by a wide margin with 11.  His body slam sack came on a crucial 3rd down and he also got 2 tackles for a loss and even a pass breakup!  Nyeem Wartman was back to his old self, collecting 6 tackles of his own after being out with an arm injury 2 weeks ago.  This is what a unit living up to the standard in spite of their depth issues looks like... are watching offensive line?!  Well, are you?!

DB: (A-) The defensive backs join the rest of the defense in getting straight A's, possibly for the first time ever on this blog (I'm too lazy to check)!  Jordan Lucas looked great with 7 tackles, good enough for second on the team, to go along with his 2 pass breakups.  Adrian Amos and Trevor Williams also looked good with a combined 5 tackles.  Ryan Keiser's missed interception gets the group a minus, though, because it was stolen by Michigan's Devin Funchass for a TD.  That interception wins us the game.  No pressure next time guys.

Special Teams

K: (A) Ficken nailed both of his FGs, his lone extra point, and even accomplished one of the coolest things in kicking - an onside kick!  And we would've gotten away with it too if it weren't for those meddling refs!

P: (C) Gulla had at least 2 shanked punts in possibly his worst performance to date.  He was completely useless in helping Penn State "flip the field" and pin Michigan deep.  Jesse Della Valle had an amazing punt return, that was called back for an illegal block in the back.  Yet more shenanigans by the officiating crew (more on that tomorrow).

As a bonus grade this week, I'm giving the offensive coaching staff a big fat F!  Offensive Coordinator John Donovan has no idea what he wants to do with this offense and seems content to just throw random plays out there and see what sticks instead of coming up with a comprehensive strategy or game plan.  The results speak for themselves.  He needs to stop all the nonsense like the wildcat and all the deep balls, and switch to short, high-percentage passes.  There are plenty of capable WRs and TEs to accomplish this and maybe it will back the defense up a little to give the running game some room.  This isn't rocket science!  Think Case Keenum and Houston when they embarrassed our stout defense back in 2011 in Penn State's last bowl game.  It's the exact same formula Bill O'Brien utilized the last two seasons and it generated two conference-leading passers in Matt McGloin and the aforementioned Hackenberg.  We already know about Franklin's relationship with O'Brien, so why not give him a call and get some advice on how to get this offense moving again?  They've tried everything else already, so it couldn't hurt.

Alright folks, that will do it for today.  Check back tomorrow for the weekly awards show.  Be sure to check out my new Facebook fan page.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Week 6 Wrap Up

Well that sucked.  Even against a completely helpless opponent, engulfed in a multitude of scandals and distractions, Penn State (specifically the offense) continued to struggle with inconsistency and missed opportunities.  Yes that’s right, another game, another heartbreaking letdown as the Nittany Lions lost on the road to the Michigan Wolverines, 13-18.  They now fall to 4-2 overall, 1-2 in the Big Ten.  Few if any games left on the schedule look winnable anymore given the way this team is playing and the collective hope to get back to the postseason appears to be dwindling by the week. 

It was the same old struggles as nothing seemed to click on offense and it has become clear that two things are holding this team back: the offensive line (obviously) and the coaching staff.  The later continues to demonstrate terrible play calling, poor clock management, and general disorganization on the sidelines.  Yet, despite all of that, things actually started out fairly well on offense as the Lions were able to move down the field with relative ease on their first two drives behind a running game which finally showed some signs of life.  In fact, Bill Belton opened things up with a season long 31 yarder.  As was the case for much of last year, though, issues in the redzone crept up and prevented Penn State from taking advantage of any momentum they managed to generate.  Consequently, both opening possessions lead to FGs instead of TDs and put PSU behind 7-6 early on.  Most alarming was the continued insistence by the coaching staff to use the wildcat formation, and at arguably the most inappropriate times.  Sorry coaches, I don’t mean to claim I know more about football than any of you because I absolutely do not.  However, it would seem pretty obvious to my admittedly untrained eye that when you have a star QB like Christian Hackenberg and you’re knocking on the proverbial endzone door in a big, primetime, night game, the last thing you should do is switch him out to WR and give your RB a shot at making the pass instead.  I mean, maybe I could understand running out of the wildcat, but throwing?  What were they thinking?!  The lone bright spot was after an amazing Anthony Zettel interception (which we’ll discuss more in a second), the offense capitalized on a short field and just as I predicted, Hackenberg thread the needle and hit Daesean Hamilton in a crowded endzone for his first career TD!  So at least there was that.

Look, anyone who even feigns interest in Penn State football can tell exactly what’s going on right now.  This year’s offense as a whole is completely inept.  And yet the talent is most certainly there at QB, WR, RB, and TE.  I know it’s been discussed here and everywhere else that covers PSU, but nearly all of the issues can be traced back and attributed to an offensive line which might have officially reached a historic low point giving up another 6 sacks and allowing pressure on Hack all night long.  Hackenberg might be the next Peyton Manning if he had time to throw, but we’ll probably never know behind this group.  That’s not to say the rest of the offense doesn't shoulder at least some of the blame.  On the rare occasion when Hackenberg does have time to throw, he over thinks and refuses to get rid of the ball or doesn't think at all and tosses it to the other team.  Against the Wolverines, he completed a respectable 21-of-32 but for just 160 yds and a lone TD, his first in 7 quarters of football.  Then there’s his inexplicable tendency to throw at his receivers’ feet instead of hitting them in the hands or numbers.  The 19 year old true sophomore may have an absolute cannon for an arm, but that thing is in need of some serious calibration if he's ever going to live up to his potential.

Over at WR, Geno Lewis did not start for the first time this season and the reasons given by James Franklin were cryptic to say the least.  By the time Lewis did enter the game, it was too little too late as he only managed 3 catches for 17 yds.  Instead, true freshmen Saeed Blacknall and Chris Godwin were given another opportunity to validate the hype they came in with, but they too proved ineffective combining for 1 catch and 17 yds.  Yes, you read that correctly, Blacknall had a 17 yd completion late in the 4^th quarter, but Godwin couldn't even manage a single catch all game.  All this despite being targeted multiple times as the coaching staff was once again forced to abandon the run.

Speaking of the running game… strap in folks, it’s about to get ugly.  Bill Belton led the way with a paltry 69 yds on 14 carries.  Second?  That would be QB (not RB) Christian Hackenberg with 10 rushes for 6 yds.  Except that sacks count against the QB’s rushing stats, and when combined with his negative yds on multiple scrambles, poor Hack ended the night with a whopping net of -34 yds on the ground.  Oh, but you can’t blame the coaching staff for not trying.  They attempted the obligatory wildcat, handed off to WR Daesean Hamilton, and even put CB Grant Haley in for a few tries.  Yes, it would seem nothing is off limits when you’re desperate.  Too bad all of that experimentation culminated in a whole 54 yds combined rushing on the night.  Let’s just move on.

On the bright side, the Penn State defense continues to show that they are the real deal!  If the Lions manage to win 2 more games this season and go bowling, it will be entirely because of the defense.  Let’s start with the freak that is Anthony Zettel.  He only had 2 tackles, and neither was for a loss like I predicted, but number 98 did manage to get PSU’s only interception of the game, ironically against number 98 Devin Gardner.  Defensive linemen don’t usually get interceptions, so this just proves how athletic Zettel is.  I knew there was a reason I featured him in my prediction, and as I said then, he has a legitimate shot at Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year if he keeps playing like this, no matter how bad Penn State ends up.  Mike Hull doesn't get as much love in the media, but once again he led the team in tackles with 11 including the 2 for a loss, and 1 sack that I predicted for Zettel.  Hull’s sack was particularly epic, as was the sack by Deion Barnes who had 7 tackles of his own.  Check them out here and here.  Oh, and it would seem Nyeem Wartman is back to form after being out for the Northwestern game with an injury.  He came in 4^th on the team with 6 tackles.  Overall, Michigan’s offense only managed to gain 256 yds, which was better than Penn State’s 214 yds, but only netted them 12 first downs to PSU’s 16.  Seriously, if the offense could just manage to be mediocre we might still be undefeated.

Now, I would be remiss if I didn't address the elephant in the room.  At the end of the game, with Penn State down 3 points and on their own 1 yd line, James Franklin had a brilliant idea with horrible execution.  He didn't want to punt the ball back to Michigan, who could easily drain the clock and win the game.  So he decided to take an intentional safety, forcing Penn State to kick off to the Wolverines.  They would then perform an onside kick, and if successful, would have plenty of time, 2 timeouts, and one of the most clutch 2-minute-drill QBs in the nation to try and win the game.  It was a great plan, then everything went to hell.  First they inexplicably let 30 seconds tick off the clock, then they took a timeout to avoid a delay of game penalty that would have only backed them up a half yd which they were essentially giving up anyway.  What happened next sadly joins many other examples of terrible, game deciding, referee decisions at the Big House that have gone against Penn State over the years.  The kickoff “hands” team lined up for a perfectly executed onside kick which they miraculously recovered!... and were immediately denied by a controversial (to say the least) offsides penalty.  Even the “experts” at the Big Ten Network agreed there was no offsides.  Here’s the thing, if I was just a generic college football fan, this might actually tick me off more because no one wants to see the referees gift wrap the victory formation for one team.  True football fans would have much preferred Christian Hackenberg get the ball at his own 35 with 1:41 left and 1 timeout to try and beat Michigan under the lights.  That’s just good TV ladies and gentlemen.  But nooooooooo, the refs had to go and ruin everyone’s good time.  Oh well, this is the kind of stuff that makes college football fun and creates bitter rivalries for years to come.

As for my prediction, Hackenberg was off by 90 yds but I did nail his TD pass to Hamilton.  No RBs got a TD, but Ficken did hit 2 FGs.  I was really close about the interception as Ryan Keiser almost picked off Devin Gardner but instead bobbled it right into the waiting arms of Devin Funchass for a TD.  Otherwise, the defense was as good as predicted with Mike Hull leading the way in tackles.  Too bad I missed on the only parts of the prediction that really matter, the score and the winner.

Ok that will wrap things up for tonight.  I finally created a fan page on Facebook where you can follow all my shenanigans.  Be sure to check it out, like it, share it, etc.  Also, don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Week 6 Prediction

The bye week is over and it's once again time for some Penn State football!  This week, the Nittany Lions travel (with the entire Blue Band in tow) to Ann Arbor for a night time clash with the Michigan Wolverines.  The game kicks off at 7pm on ESPN2.  What was originally thought to be the best road game on the schedule has lost a substantial amount of luster in recent weeks, but we'll get to more about that in a minute.

Before we begin, there was some breaking recruiting news this week that I wanted to mention, and it actually ties into my last post.  4-star QB Brandon Wimbush has decommitted from the Nittany Lions in favor of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish after his recent visit to South Bend.  This is a moderate blow because Wimbush appears to be an elite talent in the duel-threat model that James Franklin seems to prefer.  However, I don't think it will be that big of a deal.  Truth be told, I was nervous about Wimbush coming in and causing either Trace McSorely or Michael O'Connor to transfer.  Now the Lions are in a much better position to keep both QBs on the roster and pick up a QB in the 2016 class instead.  So it's a blow to the balance of the current recruiting class, but it might work out for the best in the long run.  Whatever happens with Wimbush I'm sure of one thing, he's not going to Michigan.  And on that note, let's get to the breakdown!

The Good
The Nittany Lions may be coming off an embarrassing loss to Northwestern on Homecoming, but they were also the benefactors of a bye week which allowed them to diagnose and fix whatever mistakes have been holding them back.  That means not only do they get additional time for game prep, but they also get additional time to heal up from any lingering injuries that may have been affecting their play.  In particular, LB Nyeem Wartman appears to be over his arm injury and back in the starting rotation.  Mike Hull and company seemed a little lost against the Wildcats without Wartman cleaning up the passing game.  Having him back should prove to be huge for the defense.

Michigan's starting RB Derrick Green is officially out for the rest of the season with a broken clavicle.  This could mean that an already mediocre rushing attack might become even more ineffective, especially when pitted against the 2nd best rush defense in the country lead by MMA trained DT Anthony Zettel.  In fact, Michigan's terrible offense has been the primary on-field story of 2014.  They currently lead the nation in turnover margin giving the ball away 13 more times than they've stolen it.  Most of those turnovers have come at the hands of QB Devin Gardner, who has looked like a shell of his former self all season.  So an ever-improving Penn State secondary should be looking at a decent game.  Speaking of secondaries, last week the Wolverines allowed Rutgers QB Gary Nova to throw for 404 yds, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs (as opposed to the 5 he threw against Penn State) en route to their third consecutive loss.  In case you need reminding, Gary Nova is not Christian Hackenberg.

Oh, and here's a coaching stat for you: in his 3 years at Vanderbilt, James Franklin went 3-1 after a bye week with his only loss coming to defending National Champion Alabama.  Take that for what it's worth, but it would seem the man knows what he's doing when it comes to having a week off.

The Bad
As has been discussed ad nauseam, Penn State's offensive line is terrible and they won't get fifth year senior Miles Dieffenbach back until at the earliest the Ohio State game, and that's by even the most optimistic estimates.  Consequently the running game is still stuck in neutral, if not reverse, and Hackenberg's well being is an ever present concern.  The bye week may have helped with some of these issues, but that's doubtful.  Let's just hope we don't end up with another GIF of our guys blocking each other after this week.

Although the aforementioned Devin Gardner has been a one man dumpster fire of late, his ability to pull the ball down and run still makes him a very dangerous threat for opposing defenses to deal with.  In last year's thrilling 4OT game at Beaver Stadium, he ran for 121 yds, the most of his career.  When not running it himself, Gardner's favorite receiving target is converted TE now WR Devin Funchess, who in that same game smoked the PSU defense for 112 yds and 2 TDs.  Watch out for that Devin to Devin connection.  Defensively, LB Jake Ryan is now a fifth year senior and just as impactful as ever.  He's second on the team in tackles and tackles for a loss while continuing to terrorize opposing QBs on blitzes.  We've heard all about Ryan's potential ever since 2012 and you never know when he's going to live up to it.  Up on the defensive line, keep an eye out for DT Frank Clark who currently has 6.5 tackles for a loss.  If he can get pressure on Hack, which is quite likely, the Lions' offense could be in for a long and frustrating night.

The Story
I don't exactly know if this next topic is a "good" or a "bad" thing.  I guess it all depends upon your perspective.  Either way, I'm just going to leave it here.  As previously mentioned, Michigan is a complete train-wreck right now, and for a multitude of reasons.  Chief among them is the employment status of head coach Brady Hoke.  Hoke played football at Michigan and after 3 years of the failed Rich Rodriguez experiment, fans were clamoring for a real "Michigan Man" to take over the storied program and return it to glory.  They got what they wanted in Hoke, who pleasantly surprised in his first year on the job by going 11-2 with a victory over Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl.  However, after that initial success, he immediately began trending downwards with 8 and 7 win seasons the next two years.  This, despite bringing in heralded recruiting classes with top flight talent each year.  Those stats, combined with a historically bad start to the current season and a "scandal" revolving around the increasingly touchy subject of player safety, have essentially guaranteed that Hoke will lose his job at the end of the year.

So how does that affect the game this week?  Well, because one of two things is going to happen.  Either Michigan's players circles the proverbial wagons and rally around their coach to come out playing inspired, or more likely in my opinion, they see the writing on the wall and come out completely flat in front of a half-filled stadium with no energy (thanks to a planned student protest).  We'll have to wait and see, but this much is for sure, the instability and uncertainty of the Michigan psyche right now can't be helpful to Penn State's game preparations.  It's like trying to identify the trends of schizophrenic.

Thankfully there are some lighter stories surrounding this game.  Now for those of you who don't know, Michigan's colors are "maize" (essentially yellow or "gold") and blue, and I have a number of problems with this.  First, apparently these idiots need to be reminded that CORN IS NOT A COLOR!  Seriously, just say "blue and gold," it's not that hard.  The second problem I have is, despite the fact that maize is represented almost equally along with blue on their uniforms and in their other branding materials, Michigan still uses "go Blue" as their official cheer (similar to our "We are" cheer).  Why do you have to single out just one color, jerks?  More to that point, school officials have called for a "maize out" on Saturday.  So not only are they strangely recognizing the color they usually ignore with their cheer, but they're using it to desperately try copying one of Penn State's greatest recent traditions.  I know imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, but that's still pretty lame.  Oh, and they're wearing new uniforms too, which has just become cliche at this point, but have fun with that I guess.

The Prediction
Ok, the general consensus seems to be that this will be a relatively low scoring (the over-under is 41), extremely ugly affair with two offenses struggling to move the ball.  Well I agree.  But what many other prognosticators seem to forget is that Penn State thrives in ugly games decided by defense.  Say what you will about the close victories against Rutgers and UCF this year, but last I checked there's still a W next to each of those games.  Still, with everything surrounding this game it might be nearly impossible to predict what's going to happen.  So here goes nothing.  Christian Hackenberg throws for 250 yds with a TD pass to Daesean Hamilton, the first of his young career.  One of the RBs, I'm going with Bill Belton, punches in another TD, but it's all Sam Ficken after that.  On the other side of the ball, I expect a very good to great day from a well-rested defense.  Mike Hull continues his streak as the team's leading rusher and Anthony Zettel gives voters even more reasons to select him as Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year recording 2 tackles for a loss and 1 sack.  Oh, and Ryan Keiser picks off Devin Gardner on an otherwise promising drive.  The Michigan fanbase goes into full blown revolt mode and it becomes increasingly evident that neither Brady Hoke, nor Athletic Director Dave Brandon, will even make it to the end of the season with a job.  Penn State wins 20-13.

That will do it for this week's prediction.  Be sure to check back on Sunday for the weekly wrap up.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus for all the latest breaking news about Penn State football, and as always, go State!

Bye Week Recruiting Update

Wow, what a Saturday!  I'm pretty sure it's a good thing that Penn State didn't play because chaos seemed to reign supreme as 5 of the top 8 teams in the country all lost yesterday.  There are now only 9 remaining teams with unblemished records, with all but Georgia Tech ranked in the top 10.  Of the unranked Big Ten schools still receiving votes, Wisconsin leads the way, followed by Penn State, Rutgers, and Minnesota.  In the end, the outcome was a seismic shift in the college football landscape.  Feel free to check out all the game results here, and the latest AP rankings here.

When all the dust had settled, two major things happened specific to Penn State.  First, Rutgers (a team we already beat) defeated Michigan (our next opponent) which bodes well for the Nittany Lions as they head into Ann Arbor next week.  Second, Northwestern (the only team to beat us so far) defeated Wisconsin (supposedly one of the best teams in the conference).  More importantly, Northwestern beat the Badgers just as bad and in a seemingly identical manner to how they beat us last week on Homecoming.  Although we obviously didn't play well in that game, maybe we've been a little bit too hard on our boys in blue, and things aren't quite as bad as we initially thought.  Maybe this is just who Northwestern is, and they finally woke up.

Still, the fact remains that Penn State did not play, which gives me an opportunity to update everyone on other topics, like recruiting!  James Franklin made headlines when he showed up at a high school in Maryland in his patented #SwagCopter, a move he used to pull back at Vanderbilt.  But it didn't seem to help as the last of the top 6 PA recruits, Jordan Whitehead, finally made his commitment... to Pitt of all places!  Strangely, as you can see in this video (fast forward to the 10 minute mark), he seems to immediately regret his decision.  Around the same time, news came out that Penn State QB commit, Brandon Wimbush, was taking an official visit to Notre Dame.  Now, all indications are that this was more of a formality and that Wimbush is still firmly committed to the Nittany Lions, but coupled with the Whitehead announcement it was a pretty rough day for many fans.  

With all of that said, I realized something a little while back about our current 2015 recruiting class.  If you need a quick refresher on the 20 prospects currently committed to Penn State, check out the full list here.  Once you do you may notice, like I did, that we are only 2 offensive linemen away from a perfectly balanced, complete offense and defense!  This is actually quite rare in recruiting and yet another sign that James Franklin knows exactly what he's doing building talented depth across the board for the future.  For all the visual people out there, I made this convenient diagram.  It's not the prettiest thing in the world, but it demonstrates my point.

Now, you'll notice that we do not have a TE or a FB committed yet, so I was forced to have the offense line up in a 3 WR/2 RB set.  Additionally, in order to make the defense work, first I had to move Ayron Monroe from S to CB.  Then I had to deal with the issue of the two players listed as "athletes," Daiquan Kelly and Kamonte Carter.  Thankfully Kelly projects as a LB and Carter projects as a DE, thus filling things in quite nicely.  If these guys pan out, all signs point to an extremely dangerous Penn State squad moving forward.  We could be witnessing the dawn of a wonderful era of Penn State football.  Enjoy it!

Ok, that will do it for this week, pending breaking news of course.  I'm in the middle of setting up a Facebook fan page as well as an Instagram account, so make sure you keep an eye out for those in the near future.  I'm already on Twitter so don't forget to follow me @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Week 5 Awards

I'm not exaggerating when I say that this past Saturday's game against Northwestern was probably the worst game I've experienced since I started following Penn State football... and I was in attendance for the infamous 4-6 game against Iowa in 2004.  Therefore, I'm making an executive decision and declaring that no one deserves any awards this week.  Instead, I want to hand out a new award, so let's get to it.

The only award I will be giving out this week is a new one, the Legend Award, presented to a deserving Penn State legend, and the first one ever goes to long time – but retiring – Blue Band director, Dr. Orrin Richard Bundy.  Having been in the Blue Band for all 4 of my collegiate years, I join the chorus of people who have reminisced with bittersweet dissonance about the impact that Dr. Bundy has had on Penn State, the Blue Band, and all of the individuals who have ever been under his tutelage.  Although all good things must come to an end, and we can all agree that Dr. Bundy has more than earned a very happy retirement, that does not take away from how much he will be missed.  No matter what the circumstances were, Dr. Bundy always kept things in perspective and represented our great University with pride and dignity not seen very often in the modern age.  He was as quick to celebrate a Penn State win as he was to console his students after a tough loss, and he always reminded us what an honor and a privilege it was to represent our school and be allowed to play even a small role in the tremendous history of Penn State football.  He constantly pushed students to be better, and never let them settle for anything but their best performance with his classic catchphrase “carpe the heck out of the diem!”  I can say with confidence that my skills as a musician grew exponentially while a member of the band.  Still, my greatest memory of Dr. Bundy wasn't of a practice, but instead when I sat down privately with him to do an interview for a Blue Band history assignment I had been working on.  Just like the late Joe Paterno was known to do, Dr. Bundy easily rattled off story after story about his time as a trombone player in the Blue Band back when he was a student in the late 60s, through his time as an assistant under Dr. Ned Deihl, all the way up to the opening of the Blue Band Building during my freshmen year in 2004.  I learned how the restrooms located just outside the building (which are clutch for tailgaters on gamedays) were actually a last minute compromise to help bring the building up to code without sacrificing rehearsal space.  I learned about the future plans to get an artificial turf field behind the building for the band to practice on (currently the Blue Band utilizes the IM fields, which are unavailable on Tuesday nights, and can be boarderline hazardous following a full weekend of tailgating on them).  He even gave me a copy of a research paper titled “A Concise History of the Penn State Blue Band to 1982” which he wrote while still a grad student in the Spring of 1982.  It's one of my treasured possessions.  The whole interview was an experience I’ll never forget, and it’s just one of many.  So to Dr. Bundy, on behalf of Penn Staters everywhere, please allow me to say, THANK YOU!!!  Those two simple words are not nearly enough to express the collective gratitude of the thousands of students whose lives you touched over the years, but they’ll have to do.  You held your students to the highest standards, but more impressively, you were the quintessential model of class who never strayed from those same standards yourself.  Penn State will endure as it always has without you, but your mark is deep and the impact you made on generations of Nittany Lions will never be forgotten.  May your retirement years be numerous and filled with joy!  We love you, and we will miss you.  We are…