Week 12 Prediction

The season is quickly coming to a close as the Purdue Boilermakers come to town this Saturday for the second to last home game of the season.  Purdue is one of the worst teams in college football, having only won 1 game so far this year.  They should hopefully provide a comfortable win for the Nittany Lions before a brutal two game stretch against Nebraska and Wisconsin to finish out the year.  The game will air at noon on Big Ten Network, so I’m sorry in advance to those of you who only have basic cable.  It’s going to be a battle of the only “P” teams in the Big Ten, so let’s get to the break down.

The Good

It’s Purdue!  They rank near the bottom of the FBS in nearly every statistical category.  They’re offense is absolutely atrocious and should give Penn State’s defense a nice confidence boost.  Their defense isn't much better, especially against the run.  Expect our running backs to have an easy day and put up crazy numbers.  I would also anticipate getting to see a number of back ups by games end.  With such a young team, quality in-game reps for the back ups are always priceless.  This might be Penn State’s last win of the season, so savor it.

The Bad

Um, it’s a noon kickoff?  So I don’t expect the stadium to be even remotely full.  Otherwise, there’s really not much bad when you’re playing possibly the worst team on your schedule.  There is literally nothing that Purdue does well.  Their highest statistical ranking is in passing yards, and Penn State’s defense has had difficulty defending the pass all season.  I guess that might be a problem?  However, that highest ranking is a paltry 97^th so I’m honestly not too worried.  One interesting statistic is that Purdue has recorded a takeaway in every single game, while Penn State has turned the ball over at least once in every single game.  Will both streaks continue?  Maybe, but hopefully it’s not another goal line fumble or costly interception.

The Story

Purdue’s coach, Darrell Hazell, was the head coach at Kent State last year and almost took the Golden Flashes to a BCS bowl before losing to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game.  His Kent State team was one of the feel good stories of the college football world.  Since coming to Purdue, though, Kent State has fallen on hard times and Hazell’s Purdue team has received a tough lesson in “big boy” football.  Penn State, on the other hand, has had an up and down year of its own.  They've seemingly played down to some of their weaker opponents like Indiana and Illinois.  If they’re plagued by the same mistakes that have haunted them all season, especially on 3^rd down, this could get embarrassingly tight.  The only other storyline of note is that both of Penn State’s kicking specialists are from Indiana, home of Purdue.  Punter Alex Butterworth is from Indianapolis, while kicker Sam Ficken is from Valparaiso.  Maybe they’ll know a few of the Purdue players?  Too bad I don't anticipate seeing either one of them that much in this game.

The Prediction

We’re going to win.  The question is, by how much.  As stated above, I expect the running game to go off.  Bill Belton is listed as the starter, but I would expect both he and Zwinak to get ample playing time.  They both go over 100 yds and each scores at least 1 TD.  Hackenberg will have a nice day, going for 250 yds and 2 TDs.  I would predict more, but he’ll most likely get pulled at some point.  Purdue’s only good player is cornerback Ricardo Allen, who will be guarding Allen Robinson.  I still expect Robinson to go for over 100 yds and a TD, but the added pressure means that other receivers will actually get a shot at catching the ball.  Be on the look out for the tight ends, as well as WRs Richy Anderson, Geno Lewis, and Matt Zanellato.  On defense, the line will have a big game as Purdue’s offensive line is arguably the worst in the country.  I’m calling for a Da’Quan Jones sack.  I’m also calling for a Jordan Lucas interception as Purdue’s QBs (whoever they decide to play this week) have thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season.  In the end, Penn State cruises to one of its easier wins of the season: 42 – 10.

I’m heading up to State College now and I’ll do my best to tweet throughout the game on Saturday, so keep up with me on Twitter @PSUOptimus.  Thankfully, other than it being a little chilly, the weather should be rather nice, so I’m looking forward to a rather enjoyable weekend.  I’ll see you all on Sunday for the wrap up, and as always, go State!