Week 13 Prediction

Well folks, it’s finally here, the last home game of the 2013 season.  This week’s contest is against the Nebraska Cornhuskers and is set to kick off at 3:30 on the Big Ten Network.  Being the last home game means that it’s also Senior Day (if I hadn't made that point crystal clear already).  The celebration begins approximately 30 minutes before kickoff when each senior will get their 15 seconds of fame, running onto the field solo as their name is announced.  Little known fact, the Blue Band also celebrates their seniors on Senior Day.  Look closely at the “PSU” formation during pregame and you’ll notice that only the seniors remain standing.  Here at Prime Penn State Football, we like to acknowledge everyone that helps make PSU football games so special, and that includes the Blue Band.  So congratulations to all the seniors, and thank you for everything you've done!  With all of that said, there’s still a football game happening, so let’s get to the breakdown.

The Good

Nebraska is coming off a physically draining game against Michigan State and their #1 nationally ranked defense.  The Huskers lost that game and may be on an emotional low.  Penn State, on the other hand, is coming off a relatively easy win over the hapless Boilermakers of Purdue.  They are most likely well rested and riding an emotional high.  Couple that with the drive to “win one for the seniors” and that may be a recipe for success.  Oh, and it doesn't hurt that it’s a home game.  The Lions have played significantly better at Beaver Stadium than on the road, where they haven’t won a game all season.  Nebraska’s star quarterback Taylor Martinez is out for the game with a lingering injury, which leaves his back up, freshman Tommy Armstrong, to once again carry the load.  Armstrong has never played in a place like Beaver Stadium before and with a 3:30 kick in late November, he’ll have to face night game like conditions.  He has been anything but impressive so far, throwing 7 interceptions in the past 3 games with a completion percentage somewhere in the low 50's.  Penn State’s ever improving secondary, especially the all-senior safety unit, is likely licking their chops at the thought of miscues in the passing game.  The emotion of the day combined with the Huskers’ tendency to turn the ball over have actually led Las Vegas to declare Penn State a 2 point favorite!  Very interesting.

The Bad

Regardless of how poorly Tommy Armstrong plays, Nebraska has plenty of weapons on offensive to help compensate.  Running back Ameer Abdullah is one of the best backs in the entire country, having gone for 100+ yds in every game but one this season (and even in that game, he had 98 yds).  Meanwhile, Kenny Bell is arguably the best receiver in the Big Ten behind Allen Robinson and will be a huge challenge to the Penn State’s cornerbacks.  On paper, Nebraska’s offense and defense are better and more talented than Penn State’s, although not by much.  They’re also bowl eligible and competing for a better bowl selection, so they theoretically have “more to play for.”  As for that incredible Senior Day atmosphere, it happens to fall after many students will have chosen to go home early for the start of Thanksgiving break.  If the number of tickets available (for as low as $11) on the student ticket exchange is any indication, the mighty Penn State student section might be closer to a kitten than a roaring Nittany Lion.  Here’s hoping they prove me wrong.  Oh, and I might as well bring it up one more time; Penn State has gone W, L, W, L, W, L, W, L, W this season and that means it's time for a loss.  Maybe they'll finally break the trend?

The Story

The big story is of course Senior Day.  These seniors were part of a special class that went through the death of their legendary head coach, the Sandusky scandal, and NCAA sanctions.  They stuck with the team even when they were permitted to leave without penalty.  They, like the 2012 seniors will be remembered forever at Penn State.  Although they may not have the star power of a Michael Mauti or a Matt McGloin, they were true, loyal Nittany Lions just the same.  On the field, hopefully these seniors can channel that emotion and come out with the victory they deserve.  There are 3 keys to the game.  First, stop the outstanding run game of Nebraska and force Tommy Armstrong to throw.  Second, avoid mistakes, namely turnovers.  I’m talking to you Zwinak, Belton, and Hackenberg!  Judging by their last few games, Nebraska will make plenty of mistakes.  Penn State needs to capitalize on those and limit their own if they hope to win.  Finally, 3^rd downs.  The defense needs to get off the field by holding Nebraska on 3^rd down, and the offensive needs to convert their 3^rd downs.  Again, do that and a victory is more than posisble. 

The Prediction

Alright, so we have a team that much like Minnesota two weeks ago has a strong run game and a questionable defense that Penn State should be able to run the ball on.  I think O’Brien leans on the running game heavily in this game, so Hackenberg will most likely only get around 150 yds.  That won’t stop Allen Robinson from claiming at least 100 of those yds for himself.  He'll also score 1 TD on yet another GIF-worthy catch.  Zwinak will get the bulk of the carries, in part because of his performance the last 2 weeks, and in part because he’s a senior.  I expect him to surpass 150 yds with 2 TDs.  Belton may sneak a 100 spot in there too, and score a TD of his own.  I’m predicting 2, yes 2 interceptions for the defense as Jordan Lucas grabs his 4^th of the season and senior Mike Hull gets his first.  Senior Da’Quan Jones is going to do his best impression of Jordan Hill from last year’s incredible Senior Day win over Wisconsin and get at least 1 sack.  I've been fairly pessimistic about this game up until today, but writing this post may have persuaded me.  Penn State narrowly pulls off the victory in a very entertaining back and forth game.  Final score: 31-27

Enjoy Senior Day everyone, and don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus for updates throughout the game (especially since it’s on BTN).  Check back on Sunday for the wrap up, and as always, go State!

*Correction from yesterday's post: OG Miles Dieffenbach is NOT a senior, at least not with regard to eligibility and contrary to ESPN.com.  He will not be graduating and will be back for the 2014 season!