Week 14 Prediction

As the old saying goes, all good things must come to an end.  Since I can’t think of anything better than Penn State football, that must mean that the 2013 season has come to its inevitable conclusion.  According to their Facebook page, the Nittany Lions have already boarded their plane and are on their way to Madison, WI to take on last year’s end-of-season foe, the Wisconsin Badgers.  At the end of 2012, Penn State beat the eventual Big Ten Champions thanks to an overtime FG by Sam Ficken.  Don’t expect a repeat of those heroics, though, as this year's Penn State team is markedly worse and this year's Wisconsin team is noticeably better.  The game is set to kick off tomorrow at 3:30 on ESPN.  While we wait, let’s get to the breakdown.

The Good

Not much here.  After a nice catered Thanksgiving dinner in Pollock Commons, the team seems well rested and focused on the task at hand, so that’s good I guess.  Thanks to the jerks over at the NCAA, Penn State won’t be going bowling, so this will definitely be the last game of the season.  The seniors will want to end their careers one a high note, and they know full well after last season that it’s possible to pull the upset, but I also think they're realistic about their chances.  O’Brien may have some intriguing trick plays or packages he hasn't used yet this year.  After all, at the end of the day the team really doesn't have much else to play for until next September, so they might as well throw the kitchen sink at Wisconsin and hope something catches them off guard.  Crazier things have happened, but if I were the average Penn State fan, I wouldn't hold my breath.

The Bad

Wisconsin is trying to get one of three BCS at-large births so they can play in one of the “big boy” bowl games.  It’s also Senior Day for the Badgers, so expect them to play hard for their seniors.  They are lead by a very capable “game manager” in QB Joel Stave.  He’ll be throwing to possibly the 2^nd best receiver in the Big Ten (behind Allen Robinson, of course), Jared Abbrederis.  And he’ll be handing it off to Wisconsin’s potent 1-2 punch of RBs Melvin Gordon III and James White who average nearly 300 yds rushing per game this season.  If all that wasn't enough, Wisconsin also boasts the largest offensive line in the conference and they love to push around smaller teams like Penn State.  Even if the Lions can get Wisconsin’s offense off the field, they still have to tangle with the 5th best defense in the nation lead by standout senior LB Chris Borland.  No aspect of this game will be easy for Penn State, so make no mistake, this may quickly turn into a nightmare.  In fact, Vegas has set the point spread at 24.5, which seems like a lot given Wisconsin’s generally conservative style of play.  Still, even if PSU can keep it close and the end score doesn't reflect it, this game will most likely end up feeling like a worse beat down than the Ohio State game.  The only good news is we all saw it coming.

The Story

This year’s version of the Badgers is under the watchful eye of new head coach Gary Anderson by way of Utah State.  Anderson has his team sitting pretty at #15 in the BCS poll with only two losses: one to Leaders Division Champion Ohio State and the other on a referee screw job to potential Pac-12 South Division Champion Arizona State.  They’re playing for a better bowl game while Penn State knows it can’t go to one.  The Lions may be looking to play spoiler and notch their 7^th victory to finish 2013 with a winning record.  These two old school smash-mouth style teams have had some epic games in the past few years; hopefully this one will be equally entertaining, and hey, miracles happen.

The Prediction

In case you didn't get the memo, Penn State is going to get kicked in the teeth in this one.  Then again, I expect most of the disappointment to come on defense.  Christian Hackenberg will throw for a solid 200+ yds and a score, but he'll probably also throw at least 1 interception.  Allen Robinson and Zach Zwinak will each gain 100+ yds and each score a well earned TD.  The ever-improving defense will keep it close at first, but get dominated by the time the second half rolls around.  Maybe something cool like an interception or a fumble will happen, but in the end it’s just not enough.  The Lions take the long plane ride home to State College with a 6-6 final record.  They lose 42 – 21.

I hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving, because I know I did.  Although the Raiders eventually lost, I had a wonderful time watching Matt McGloin look like a bonafide NFL starting QB against the Cowboys!  Follow me throughout the game tomorrow on Twitter @PSUOptimus for live updates.  Don't forget to check back on Sunday for the weekly wrap up, and as always, go State!