The Good
Despite this being a road game for Penn State, at a stadium that should be absolutely packed with raucous fans come Saturday night, Rutgers is still a 3.5 point underdog. For those of you who don't follow gambling lines, the home team almost always gets an automatic 3 point advantage. So really, on a neutral field, Penn State would be favored by a TD, and frankly, I still think that's too low. Not only is there a sizable talent gap between the two teams, but the match ups are completely in PSU's favor. The Scarlet Knights are a run first team with a very capable RB name Paul James, but Penn State's defensive front 7 has been outstanding against the run so far this season and arguably the strength of the entire defense. Meanwhile, the weakness of Rutgers' defense is their porous secondary which got gashed for 500+ yds against Washington State in week 1. That's not a good thing when you're about to play us because, as I've said before, we have Christian Hackenberg and you don't. Our passing game has been scary good so far thanks to the Hack and if we can get the running game going even a little bit this won't just be a win, it will be a beat down. Even if Rutgers plays perfect in all 3 phases of the game, I think it will be difficult to come away with a victory. The fact is, only Penn State can beat Penn State this week. If Hackenberg throws 2 more interceptions in the red zone, or if the RBs catch a case of fumbleitis, or if we can't stop committing penalties, or miscommunication leads to severe breakdowns in coverage, MAYBE Kyle Flood's team will have a chance. But I don't see it.
Another good thing has been our secondary, even though they have yet to record an interception. Judging by their much improved play from last year, I would say they're due, and Gary Nova is a prime candidate to give it to them. On offense, there were definitely problems with consistency last week, but the players have fessed up to those errors and for the most part they were simple mental mistakes easily fixed by a week of practice.
The Bad
No matter how much I try to downplay it, this is still a road night game, and although it's not the Big House or the Horseshoe or even Camp Randall, High Point Solutions Stadium should be packed to the brim with incredibly pumped up fans. Rutgers does have a few talented players too. I already mentioned their running back, Paul James, who has impressed so far averaging 5 yds per carry. He can also catch the ball out of the backfield like we saw against Howard. Directing the action at QB is Gary Nova who actually has more TDs and fewer interceptions than Hackenberg thus far, but hasn't been asked to carry the entire offense. Then there's WR Leonte Carroo who doesn't have a lot of catches, but nearly 1/3 of his receptions last year went for TDs so he's a big play threat. The Rutgers defensive line is good, especially at DE and could have a big night against Penn State's struggling offensive line and rushing attack. They might force Hackenberg into some bad throws, like we've seen the previous 2 weeks, or even a costly interception.
The Story
Some people have been asking the question, "who needs this more?" I think that one is pretty simple to answer; Rutgers needs it more because they're trying to prove themselves in a new conference that doesn't think too highly of Rutgers football. However, that's not what I'm focused on. Fairly or unfairly, this is one of those teams that Penn State is supposed to beat, so they won't get credit for the win if they do, but if they lose, it will be a complete embarrassment. In that context, Penn State needs it more. I can tell you this much, Rutgers fans care a lot more than Penn State fans right now. Ironically, it's the obnoxious taunting by Rutgers fans that has led to increased interest from Nittany Nation. That's why I honestly think provoking us was one of the dumbest things Rutgers could have done. If they hadn't tried to turn this into a rivalry, I think Penn State may have overlooked this game and come out flat. Instead, "chop nation" (I don't get the whole "chop" thing either) went and shot their collective mouth off and started acting like they're the class of the Big Ten with no evidence to back it up. Now the mentality of "let's shut these clowns up" has taken over Happy Valley and, when combined with the momentum from the sanctions reduction, any chances of sneaking up on the Nittany Lions is a distant memory. Granted, college football fans have never been a modest group, but the delusional arrogance I've seen emanating from the armpit that is New Jersey has been excessive.
Case in point, here's what my friend's coworkers did to his desk:
So I'd like to deliver the following message to all the Rutgers fans out there...
Hey Rutgers! Welcome to the big leagues, finally. We've been waiting here for quite a while. I must admit I have no idea where your confidence and bravado suddenly came from. Was it that beatdown you gave to national powerhouse Howard last week? Well the team we beat last week shutout Howard 41-0 in week 1, so we're not exactly impressed. By the way, go ahead and keep trying to troll us with comments about the Sandusky scandal. We both know that was a load of bullshit, but more importantly, we both know that it has exactly zero bearing on the outcome of this game. At the end of the day Penn State is a bigger school, a better school, and a cooler school than you. Oh, and always remember that your football team hasn't accomplished anything of merit since 1869 when, yes, you played in what is widely regarded as the "first ever U.S. collegiate football game." But that game was just a glorified rugby scrimmage and can barely be said to resemble the modern game we all know and love. It's great that you can hang your hat on that one "accomplishment," but here at Penn State we have more than a century of football excellence to brag about including iconic uniforms, the greatest stadium in all the land, legendary coaches, multiple national titles, a veritable pipeline of All-American caliber players flooding into the NFL year in and year out, and the best, most loyal fans in existence. You can't touch us! So keep on talking, we're fine with that, sometimes little brother needs to vent, and hey, it may even help you pull out a victory on Saturday. But just know that one win doesn't erase history. You were never anything special, and you never will be. At best you will become a middle-tier Big Ten program, while Penn State can finally go back to winning championships and ignoring you. That's just the facts, accept it.
The Prediction
This week isn't about accuracy. At this point, I just want to demoralize those coky wannabes in prime time at their own house. I guess you could say this will be closer to a wish list than a prediction. Christian Hackenberg throws for 409 yds and 3 TDs without an interception. Lewis and Hamilton lay waste to Rutgers' pathetic secondary on their way to 100 yds and a TD each. The running game finally gets going as Akeel Lynch surpasses Belton and Zwinak for the starting job and picks up a TD of his own. Jesse James shows off his freakish athletic ability against some unsuspecting linebackers, stiff arming them out of his way for yet another long TD catch. On defense, Coach Shoop demonstrates the full operational power of his defensive line, which picks up at least 5 sacks and forces poor Gary Nova to throw an interception to Jordan Lucas. The linebackers are unleashed on blitz after blitz and Paul James can never get things going. Fans leave midway through the 4th quarter with their heads hung low in shame. All of Rutgers recruits plead with James franklin to let them come to Penn State, but having already secured 4 of the top 10 prospects in NJ (and 0 of the top 10 committed to Rutgers), Franklin politely declines and wishes them well. The Nittany Lions head back home with a win 38-24.
As a bonus, here's a transcript of James Franklin's press conference for #RutgersHateWeek. As a double bonus, our new athletic director has promised to fix the scoreboard situation!
It all goes down tomorrow night so get the popcorn ready! Check back on Sunday for the wrap up, don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!
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