Week 4 Prediction

After an emotional win over Rutgers the Nittany Lions return home for only the second time this season, and the first time since the sanctions were eliminated, to take on the Minutemen of Massachusetts (UMass).  The game will be broadcast at a special 4pm kickoff time on the Big Ten Network.  Saturday’s game will feature the Unrivaled Band Jam (formerly “Band Day”) which has not been held since 1975.  It will feature the Blue Band, the Massachusetts Minuteman Marching Band, and 4 local high school marching bands.  They will play in the BJC prior to the game, as well as take part in the halftime and post-game festivities.  It should be a great time!

Band Day circa 1975

Even better, it appears that James Franklin wasn't lying when he said new AD Sandy Barbour was looking into the scoreboard situation.  The $10 million monstrosities will actually display the score now!  Was that too much to ask?  We have a very easy opponent this week, so this most likely won’t take long, but let’s get to the breakdown anyway.

The Good

Ok, we're playing a winless UMass team that is considered the worst team in the FBS according to the Sagarin Ratings.  That alone should tell you everything you need to know about this game.  They bumped up to the FCS just 2 years ago, joined one of the worst conferences in the country, and still only managed to win 2 games since then.  I highly doubt they’ll put up much of a fight against Penn State.

In the "players you need to know" category, well, there's not much.  I guess I should mention UMass QB Blake Frohnapfel, and no I'm not even going to attempt to pronounce his last name.  Good luck to the announcers on Saturday though!  He's been decent this season with 5 TDs to only 2 INTs.  Frohnapfel will be throwing to a reliable receiving target in Tajae Sharpe, but otherwise I wouldn't expect this offense to do much, especially against a Penn State defense that has played lights out so far.  On defense things get even worse as the Minutemen have given up 150+ yds rushing in all 3 of their games, including a 338 yd gift to Boston College.  Maybe this was just what the running game doctor ordered for the Lions... oh no, I just jinxed them didn't I?  Sorry.

The Bad

The Nittany Lions are coming off a very emotional win (no matter how the players try to downplay it) and could get caught sleepwalking against a team they know they should beat.  Add in the fact that this is basically the Superbowl for UMass and you're bound to hear "trap game" all day long.  However, James Franklin has proven that he can get his team motivated to play even the lowliest of foes, so I'm not too concerned.

There are two players from UMass you might actually want to watch out for.  Junior LB Jovan Santos-Knox is the NCAA's leading tackler after 3 weeks, but that might just mean he's the only player capable of tackling on the defense.  On special teams, Trey Dudley-Giles (what is with the funky names?) is a dangerous return man averaging 35.4 yds per kickoff.  He has the ability to take one to the house and embarrass our coverage team.  Let's hope that doesn't happen.

The Story

Interesting fact: Former Penn State WR Alex Kenney transferred to UMass after last season, and could be catching passes from former Penn State QB Austin Whipple who also transferred to UMass after last season (although, Whipple is the backup, so probably not).  Unlike Kenney, Austin most likely made the switch because his father, Mark Whipple, is currently the UMass head coach.  I'm sure Penn State will be more than willing to give these guys a "proper" homecoming.

Speaking of QBs, James Franklin said earlier this week that he plans to redshirt both Trace McSorley and Michael O’Connor.  Therefore, if a backup QB comes in to relieve Hackenberg this week, it will most likely be walk-on 4^th stringer D.J. Crook, and I don’t exactly expect him to light up those sparkling new scoreboards.  If the 2^nd team defense lets a couple of plays get by them and Crook can’t put something together, the final score might be closer than expected.

The Prediction

Wow, do I go high with this because we're just that much better than UMass, or do I go low because most of the starters won't make it to the end of the game?  I think I'll take the former!  Hackenberg breaks 400 yds again with multiple TDs and no INTs as Lewis and Hamilton each get 150+ yds.  The rushing attack FINALLY gets going as someone (anyone?!) goes over 100 yds with a TD to boot.  D.J. Crook makes his debut in Beaver Stadium and remembers this moment for the rest of his life.  Meanwhile, the defense puts on an absolute clinic!  Zettel gets 2 sacks and Barnes gets 1 before the starters are eventually pulled.  Jordan Lucas, still jealous of everyone else's interceptions last week, finally steals one for himself.  And Mike Hull once again quietly leads the team in tackles.  Penn State is about a 27 point favorite in this one, which seems a little high given our offensive struggles lately, but I still think they cover on their way to their easiest victory of the year.  Final score: 35-3.

OK, enjoy Saturday's beatdown and check back here on Sunday for the Wrap Up to see just how bad it actually got.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!