Week 5 Prediction

It’s week 5 everyone, but more importantly it’s Homecoming!  I’m in State College for the weekend as Penn State gets ready to take on their second conference foe of the season, the Northwestern Wildcats.  The game kicks off at noon and will be broadcast on the Big Ten Network.  If you’re also in town, make sure you check out the Homecoming parade on Friday night and the Homecoming carnival going on outside Beaver Stadium all weekend.  If you’re so inclined, you might even want to go check out the ROTC cadets guarding the Lion Shrine.  But let’s face it, everyone is really here for the game, so let’s get to the breakdown!

The Good

Last year, Northwestern QB Cain Colter and RB Venric Mark were an explosive combination and helped propel their team to a 4-0 start.  Then Mark got injured and Colter got wrapped up in the national push to unionize college football players.  After a heartbreaking, emotional loss to Ohio State, billed as the biggest game in program history (sound familiar Rutgers?), the Wildcats epically collapsed and didn't win another game until their season finale against Illinois.  In the end, they missed going to a bowl and they don’t appear to have recovered emotionally since then.  They've limped to a 1-2 start in 2014, with their only win coming against FCS team Western Illinois.  Quite frankly they look like they've already given up on the season so don’t expect them to be very fired up to pull the upset on Saturday.

Now, much like Penn State, Northwestern has had difficulty getting the run game established.  The good news is that Penn State isn't facing the #1 rush defense in the country… but Northwestern is.  Additionally, as James Franklin pointed out in his press conference earlier this week, Northwestern utilizes an up tempo offense that makes a lot of decisions at the line of scrimmage.  Unfortunately for them, that’s a bad style to have in a place like Beaver Stadium with its notoriously loud crowds made all the more worse by Homecoming.

The Bad

Like last week there’s not much here as Northwestern is quite bad.  It’s a conference game and conference opponents know you better than anyone.  You can’t sneak up on them like you can non-conference opponents.  On the other hand, they’re still Northwestern, and head coach Pat Fitzgerald is currently riding a 5 game losing streak against the Nittany Lions, so he clearly hasn't figured out the formula for beating us yet.  The only player Penn State should really be scared of is safety Ibraheim Campbell who might get an interception on Hackenberg if he gets cocky.  Other than that, the only other “bad” thing that might happen is if the players get a little bit too wrapped up in all the excitement of Homecoming.  Every week this season a heavily favored team has been caught sleepwalking and gotten knocked off.  With Penn State on the verge of a top 25 ranking, they’ll need to stay focused or they could be next.

The Story

Well the big story is that it’s Homecoming!  The alumni are out in droves and ready for a win, possibly in front of a sold out crowd.  If you’re in town, make sure to check out some of the best tailgating of the year.  In the likely event of a win, Penn State is almost guaranteed to be propelled into the top 25 rankings for the first time since 2011 and finally get some national respect.

One cool story coming into the game was Pat Fitzgerald press conference this week in which he had nothing but praise for Penn State.  Now feel free to take this however you want.  Maybe he’s trying to downplay things in anticipation of the beatdown his team is about to receive, or maybe he just honestly respects our guys and wants to recognize their talent.  Either way, it was nice of him.

The Prediction

There is definitely a strong possibility that Northwestern comes out, plays tough, and keeps it close against the Lions.  There’s an equally strong possibility that Penn State blows this game wide open and has their second blowout in as many games.  I have a good feeling about this one and I’m going to lean towards the latter.  The offense comes out slow per usual before Christian Hackenberg finds his groove and finishes the day with 300+ yds and 2 TDs.  Bill Belton and the running backs continue to gain confidence behind an ever-improving offensive line and 2 of the 3 backs get into the endzone, but no one breaks 100 yds.  Regardless, a more competent rushing attack opens up the passing game as Lewis and Hamilton go off for 100 yds each.  One of them gets a TD while a TE, most likely Jesse James, gets Hack’s other scoring strike.  Meanwhile, the defense comes out and just continues to do what they've done all season.  Anthony Zettel and Austin Johnson clog the line of scrimmage while Mike Hull plays clean up and once again leads the team in tackles.  Someone in the secondary picks off Trevor Siemian and Grant Haley breaks a big play on special teams.  Penn State wins on a very happy Homecoming as they go into the bye week 5-0 to prepare for a road trip to Michigan.  Final score: 34-13

Ok, that will do it for today.  Be sure to check back on Sunday night for the wrap up, don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, especially during the game tomorrow, and as always, go State!