Thursday, December 17, 2015

December News and Notes

Welcome back everyone!  With the regular season now officially over, it's time to get updated with everything that's going on in the world of Penn State football heading into the postseason.  We'll start with what I consider to be the biggest news.  Right after the Michigan State game, it was announced that much maligned Offensive Coordinator John Donovan had been relieved of his duties.  Since then, a search was conducted and concluded with the hiring of Joe Moorhead, the former head coach of FCS Fordham.  I actually really like this hire.  Moorhead is a Pennsylvania guy who took an 1-11 team and has averaged double-digit wins in the past 3 years along with winning multiple conference titles.  And he's done it all with a solid offensive system that *gasp* adjusts to the players he has instead of trying to fit square pegs into round holes.  Here's a little bit more from his introductory press conference.

I think you know what the other big story is... it's the most wonderful time of the year!  No, not Christmas, Bowl Season!  This year the Nittany Lions will face off against the Georgia Bulldogs in the Taxslayer.com Bowl (formerly the Gator Bowl) in Jacksonville, FL on January 2nd.  Generally, I think this worked out quite well considering Georgia is a better matchup than LSU, and I personally think Jacksonville is a better venue than Nashville (I mean, their stadium has a freakin pool!).  This will be the first time since the 1983 Sugar Bowl that these teams have faced off, and the second time ever.  You might remember that particular game gave Joe Paterno his first National Championship.  Onward State did a brief history of the now infamous game if you're interested.  We'll get more into this year's rendition closer to New Year's.

In the meantime, a slew of other bowl games will kick off this Saturday, December 19th.  I know it's a short notice, but if you have the time and an ESPN account (they're free), head on over and join this year's Prime Pick Em Challenge!  Now, if you've paid attention to this blog the last two years, you'll know that one of my favorite things about bowl season is seeing the list of swag bags handed out to the participating teams.  Sure enough, Sports Business Daily compiled this year's list and I'm already super jealous.  It looks like Penn State's players will get a Panasonic gift suite and a fossil watch, not bad.

The postseason isn't just bowl season, though, it's also awards season!  This year's big winner was, surprise surprise, Carl Nassib.  The former walk-on was this season's feel good story as he skyrocketed into the headlines with big hits and a record breaking sack total.  As it stands right now, Nassib has officially won 3 major national awards: the Hendricks Award (given to the nation's top DE), the Rotary Lombardi Award (given to the nation's top lineman or LB), and the Lott IMPACT Trophy (given to the defensive IMPACT player of the year).  Additionally Nassib has been named a First Team All-American by the Associated Press, SI.com, ESPN.com, Walter Camp, CBS Sports, FWAA, and AFCA.  He was also a Second Team selection by USA Today.  Speaking of USA Today, they named RB Saquon Barkley to their All-Freshman Team.  Similarly, ESPN.com and the Sporting News named Barkley a Freshman All-American.  So a big CONGRATULATIONS to both players for all their success!

As long as we're on the subject of congratulating players, I'll send another big one out to Jordan Lucas for his selection to the Senior Bowl.  This is arguably the top postseason All-Star game where NFL prospects showcase themselves for scouts.  I'm sure a few more Nittany Lions will be invited to these types of games, so we'll discuss that more when it happens.

Today's final bit of news surrounds the ever "polarizing" Christian Hackenberg.  It appears that ESPN's resident draft expert, Todd McShay, thinks that the Junior signal-caller would benefit from another year in school, but that he'll probably choose to turn pro... turns out ESPN analyst (and former Washington QB) Brock Huard agrees with that assessment.

Alright, that will do it for today.  Since I, like most people, have off on New Year's Day, and I'll be spending the bulk of it watching football, I think that's when I'll write and post my Bowl prediction.  So check back then.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Week 12 Wrap Up

It was another nasty loss, this time to the #5 team in the nation.  Penn State now finishes with a 7-5 record (4-4 in Big Ten), a spot in a lower tier bowl, and the Lions have only beaten one team this season with a winning record (San Diego State).  They've also lost control of the state to Temple.  So overall, not great, but we did win one more game than last year, so I guess we're trending upwards?  The talent is there and more is on the way.  I got a little too excited at the beginning of the season and truly believed this was the year we'd break out.  It's now looking more and more like the prognosticators were right, though, and next year might be the year we break out, especially considering...

John Donovan has officially been fired as Offensive Coordinator.  Yes, the man who can almost single-handedly be given credit for Christian Hackenberg's plummeting draft stock is no longer calling plays in Happy Valley.  I doubt you'll find many people outside the Donovan family who are upset with this decision.  I honestly didn't realize until now that he was also the TEs coach (that was one of the worst position groups on the team under Donovan after being one of the strengths under Bill O'Brien).  Black Shoe Diaries put it best, "Franklin has been fairly clear that he prizes loyalty, but he obviously does not place loyalty above doing your job."  I for one, applaud James Franklin for this!  In fact, I'm of the opinion that James Franklin is doing a fine job as head coach, a job that entails making those kinds of tough decisions, delegating responsibilities effectively, and handling recruits/players/administration/alumni.  Franklin has done well in these endeavors and deserves to stay.  The Offensive Coordinator's job, however, is to develop a game plan and handle play calling.  John Donovan was terrible at that, so he had to go.  I think the general consensus of the fans is, good riddance.  And if you don't run in coaching circles (I know I don't), BSD has put together a list of 40 potential candidates.

Now if you want to know what happened in the game you should've watched it.  But if you couldn't (I know, Thanksgiving is a thing) then check out recaps here and here.  Here are my takeaways:

They dominated us on both lines.  Our defensive line couldn't get a push and registered zero sacks without Sickels and Nassib.  Credit their o-line for giving Connor Cook and his WRs all day to pick us apart.  This meant we couldn't blitz as often since so many guys were in coverage trying to stop the bleeding.  Our offensive line was OK in pass protection (Hackenberg's quick passes helped) but couldn't open holes for Barkley.  Next season is year 3 for both James Franklin and supposed o-line guru Herb Hand and it's going to be a big one.  3 years is about all you get in the modern world of college football coaching to prove yourself.  The staff's first impressive batch of highly touted o-line recruits will be redshirt sophomores next year and should be able to begin competing for starting jobs.  The second haul will be redshirt freshman who can serve as reliable backups.  remember that only Angelo Mangiro (and possibly Gaia and Dowry) will be leaving, so there are veterans like Andrew Nelson and Brendon Mahon to anchor the unit.  If they don't improve dramatically, the whole staff will be on the hot seat.

This game was actually closer than the score made it seem, especially at halftime.  Take a look at the 1st half stats:
Hackenberg: 17-27, 166 yds, 1 TD vs Cook: 11-16, 121 yds, 1 TD
Barkley: 10 rushes, 86 yds
Godwin: 8 catches, 85 yds, 1 TD
Total yds: PSU 268 vs MSU 200
Time of Possession: 45 plays (17:41) vs 31 plays (12:19)

However, costly mistakes at all the wrong times doomed the Nittany Lions.  In the 2nd quarter, the offense was driving and Hackenberg delivered a perfect ball to Kyle Carter who proceeded to fumble it.  Michigan State's Demetrius Cox recovered the live ball and wound up on plenty of highlight reels for his spinning TD return.  In the 4th quarter, Penn State managed to get within 18 with a Chris Godwin TD (and failed 2 point conversion) and attempted an onsides kick.  Of course, it was recovered by MSU who only had to drive 44 yds for the score.  Just three plays later, Hackenberg nailed a lineman in the back and the ball bounced right into the hands of Malik McDowell, who took it 13 yds for a score of his own.  But it wasn't over.  Koa Farmer fumbled the ensuing kickoff at the 9, gifting a short field to the Spartans, who decided to let their fucking CENTER, Jack Allen, score the last points of the game.  It was that kind of game.

In college, there are bad teams that you hope to play on Senior Day.  You hope this because you want to be able to put your less talented Seniors in the game towards the end and let them have a little glory.  Penn State, however, should NEVER be considered the type of team you can do this on.  And yet as I mentioned, in the 2nd half, with the game far out of reach, the Spartans put their Senior center in at RB and let him score... scratch that, our guys let him score.  It was embarrassing and I hope we never have to watch something like that again (although congrats to that guy for getting his moment in the spot light).

Coaching!  It's year 2 for James Franklin, it's year 9 for Mark Dantonio, and that made all the difference.  Although there were no end of game mistakes this week, that's only because the game was already so out of hand.  There were more ill-advised timeouts because of miscommunication.  And then there was the situation early in the game, down 6-0, having just watched Penn State drive the length of the field to the 1 yd line, when the staff decided to settle for a FG.  Listen, if you can't make it in fromt he 1, in a game when you're supposed to be pulling out all the stops, just go home.

Chris Godwin and Saquon Barkley will be a lethal yet entertaining duo for years to come, regardless of the QB situation.  With the help of a surprisingly aggressive offensive game plan, Godwin (11 catches, 109 yds, 2 TDs) had his best day ever.  And thanks in large part to a handful of chunk plays, Barkley finished the day with a respectable 17 carries for 110 yds.  He had the tougher hill to climb against a very stout Michigan State front four.  Both are still young, so enjoy this ride while it lasts.

Speaking of Barkley, some of the post season awards have started to trickle out and the star RB was named BTN.com's Freshman of the Year, although he was snubbed for the same award by the Big Ten Conference (it went instead to Michigan's Jabrill Peppers).  The Conference did, however, award Carl Nassib Defensive Player of the Year, as well as name Nassib, Austin Johnson, and Anthony Zettel to the various All-Defensive Teams.  Congrats to all the winners and I'm sure more are on the way!

I did a piece on Christian Hackenberg a few days ago, but I think this one does better justice explaining why every fan should be thankful this young man came to Penn State.  On a somewhat related note, the guy thought to be Hackenberg's successor, (but who transferred last year back to Canada) Michael O'Connor, is doing just fine for himself back in his home country.  It's very interesting to see the paths these two young men have taken and where each has led them respectively.

Alright, that will do it for today.  Check back tomorrow for my last regular season grades post.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Friday, November 27, 2015

Week 12 Prediction

That's right, it's time to play the most contrived and least respected rivalry in college football, with probably the stupidest looking trophy imaginable up for grabs, the Land Grant Trophy.  This game was started because new Big Ten member Penn State needed a rival and Michigan State's primary rival (Michigan) was already taken by Ohio State.  The schools were founded in the same year (1855) and apparently that was good enough to justify an attempt at hating each other.  Penn State will be the away team, sporting their all white uniforms, and the game will kick off at 3:30 on ESPN.

Behold the Land Grant Trophy in all its hideousness

The all-time series is tied up at 14 games a piece.  Michigan State won three of the last five meetings, including the last two in a row.  Under the old Legends/Leaders Divisions, the teams did not play from 2011-2013.  Hence, Penn State hasn't won since 2009 with Darrell Clark at QB... yeah.  Unfortunately, things aren't looking too good for bringing this monstrosity back to State College.  Let's find out why in this week's breakdown!

The Good
Michigan State's star QB (and NFL scouting rival of Christian Hackenberg) Connor Cook is currently suffering from a shoulder injury.  If he remains out for tomorrow's game, either Tyler O'Connor or Damien Terry will share QB duties.  O'Connor is the pure passer, while Terry is more of a duel threat.  Either one of them will have WR Aaron Burbridge to throw to, who leads the team in receptions and TDs.  But without Cook under center, it's safe to say the offense will be a shell of its former self no matter what strategy they employ.  That's good news for our defense.

The one area you could call a weakness for Michigan State's defense is their secondary.  Our passing stats actually line up pretty favorably against them.  If Hack & Co can have a game like they did against Maryland and bomb it all over the field, that might be their best chance to pull the upset, and oh what an upset it would be.

Despite nailing the game winning FG against Ohio State, kicker Michael Geiger is only 9-14 on the year.  If we keep it close, can he be trusted to hit another game winner two weeks in a row?  Hopefully not.

The Bad
Carl Nassib might be hurt and possibly won't play.  He only played one series last week, and without him the defensive production, especially along the line, dropped off in a big way.  If he remains out, I expect more of the same decline.  It's bad enough that Jordan Lucas is out, we can't afford to lose much more senior leadership or breakdowns are inevitable.

Verses the Buckeyes, and absent a potent passing attack with Cook's injur, MSU's RBs Gerald Holmes and L.J. Scott combined for over 200 yds rushing.  If called upon again, they can easily grind out an ugly win.

Defensively, Shilique Calhoun leads the team with 11.5 tackles for a loss and 8.5 sacks.  That's not good news for our offensive line.  In fact, both offenses give up a fair amount of sacks so this could turn into a good ol' fashioned sackfest for both teams!  Hackenberg is used to that, can we honestly say the same thing about the Spartan QBs?  Overall, MSU's defense is good, but not quite great.  I still expect them to be able to shut down this terrible PSU offense, though, and make it hard for both Hackenberg and Saquon Barkley to threaten them in any way.

As a coaching battle, this is the second week in a row that it's not even close.  So far this season Michigan State's Mark Dantonio has managed to out coach Jim Harbaugh AND Urban Meyer, beating both living legends in their home stadiums with arguably inferior talent.  I hate to say it, but James Franklin is no Harbaugh or Meyer.  If it comes down to a chess match of game management, the Nittany Lions are toast.

The Story
Franklin's crew doesn't really have much to play for this week and could come out flat.  About the only thing Penn State can do by winning is cause chaos in the Big Ten/Playoff pictures.  Michigan State, on the other hand, is playing for EVERYTHING!  A few years ago they went 6-6 after losing a number of close games.  Conversely, this season they've found a way to win five out of six games decided by a score or less.  This past week they were the big story in college football when they beat previously undefeated and reigning National Champion Oho State in their own house.  That win provided a major shake up in the national rankings.  Now the Spartans control their own destiny.  Win, and they play Iowa for the Big Ten Championship and an almost guaranteed spot in the playoff.  Lose, and the winner of Michigan vs OSU takes their place in both (which means we'll have an unlikely ally rooting for PSU at the conclusion of that game).  There's no need for Sparty to "wake up" for this one.  Penn State is going to get Michigan State's best shot, and that means it could get ugly fast.  How do we avoid that?  Well, to quote Black Shoe Diaries:

"What does this mean for Penn State?  It means throw out all the stops.  Don't kick FGs on 4th and short inside the 30.  Break out the WR/RB pass plays.  Let Hackenberg air it out downfield as often as he would like.  Let the defense blitz the hell out of (the QB)... Don't call the safe plays... Make a big play early.  Coach to win, instead of coaching to not lose."

Pretty much nailed it right there.

The Prediction
Penn State opened as a mere 1.5 point underdog, which seemed incredibly low against a team that just knocked off the reigning National Champs.  That line has since moved to 10.5 points, which is a much more reasonable spread.  Hackenberg has an OK day, throwing for around 150 yds and even manages a TD to Chris Godwin.  Saquon Barkley, however, struggles to hit 100 yds and doesn't score at all.  A trick play provides the other TD, while Tyler Davis hits a FG.  The defense comes out strong for their Seniors like Zettel and Nassib.  Marcus Allen leads the team in tackles, Jason Cabinda gets a fumble recovery, and Grant Haley even grabs an interception.  We'll pull off a couple of nice plays, most likely passes.  That will lead to the few aforementioned points, but nowhere near enough to keep up with Dantonio's squad.  As has been the case all season long, offensive ineptitude will put the defense in bad spots and they will give up more TDs than their talent would suggest.  I'm going to call this one a Spartan victory, 31-17.  Penn State ends the regular season with a 7-5 record and prepares for a mid-level bowl game.

Alright, that will do it for tonight.  Be sure to check back on Monday for my last weekly wrap up of the regular season.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Week 11 Grades

I will not be doing my usual grades post tonight for a number of reasons.  Chief among them is that personal issues have prevented me from putting in my usual amount of work and research in order to write this post, and I refuse to slop something together just for the hell of it (I have standards dammit!).  So instead, I found a nice grades post for the Michigan game done by Black Shoe Diarieswho always put out quality writing and analysis.  Since much of my grades are determined by the game statistics, I'm also going to leave a link to those here for your viewing pleasure.  And now, a really cool picture of Penn State's football uniforms through the years!

Clean.  Simple.  Classic

Alright, Saturday is the last game of the regular season.  I know, I'm sad too.  But if you head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like, I promise to post all the best news and notes leading up to the game!  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Monday, November 23, 2015

Week 11 Wrap Up

On a perfectly brisk fall afternoon, in front of an emotionally charged Senior Day/Whiteout crowd hoping for an upset, the dreams of Nittany Nation (no matter how unrealistic) were dashed as Penn State fell to the Michigan Wolverines by a score of 28-16.  Another lackluster performance by the offense mixed with the continued slide on defense gave us a perfect storm of ineptitude.  Despite a litany of self-inflicted penalties by Michigan, James Franklin's crew couldn't get out of their own way long enough to take advantage of the mistakes and eke out a win.  Their undefeated home record for the year was ruined as PSU slides to 7-4 with the mighty Spartans of Michigan State looming on the road next week to finish out the season.  The loss was expected, the lingering disappointment, not so much.

Before we get started, I haven't had a chance to do a recruiting update in a while.  Saturday was actually a huge recruiting day with upwards of 100 prospects on hand.  Obviously most are just there to be on the sidelines for a free football game; many wouldn't stand a chance as anything other than a walk-on; and still others have no intention of ever attending PSU.  Regardless, 2017 LB prospect Dylan Rivers decided to pull the proverbial trigger more than a year early and commit to the Nittany Lions!  We'll be focused more on the 2016 class in the spring, but welcome to Linebacker U anyway Dylan!

Watching on TV, my first thought was that this was the best crowd I might have ever seen at Penn State for a noon kick off.  Coincidentally, it was also the highest rated noon game in all of college football this year.  Being the Whiteout game obviously helped, and I'll admit it actually looked surprisingly decent in the day time (not the complete "wow factor" of a nighttime Whiteout, but impressive nonetheless).  As I mentioned, it was also a very special Senior Day because the last class to be recruited by and play for Joe Paterno took the home field one last time.  A total of 6 fifth year Seniors were honored as JoePa's last class: TE Kyle Carter, LB Ben Kline, OL Angelo Mangiro, DE Carl Nassib, WR Matt Zanellato, and DT Anthony Zettel.  Thank you gentlemen!  Your loyalty will never be forgotten.

Getting back to game action, Penn State has finally faced some real competition in the last few weeks and the results are in: this team is mediocre at best.  They beat who they're supposed to beat and lose to who they're supposed to lose to (in other words, ranked teams).  In the loss to Michigan the same three problems that have plagued the Lions all year continued to ruin any chance of success. 1) Special Teams is a complete mess. 2) The offensive line has not improved and might have regressed, and 3) The coaching staff is not earning their Big Ten salaries, specifically because of horrible play calling and poor clock/game management.

Let's start with Special Teams.  It appears the coaches have relegated Joey Julius to just kick offs because of his stronger, yet less accurate leg.  To his credit Tyler Davis hit all of his FGs and his extra point on Saturday.  Conversely the punting game featured short kicks and bad coverage.  And then there's DeAndre Thompkins.  His fumbled return inside the 10 giftwrapped a TD to Michigan and drastically altered the end-of-game strategy.  It's not the first time either.  The redshirt freshman has had ball security issues all season.  We get it, he's fast, but there's more to football than speed.

Ugh, the offensive line...  I was scared for Christian Hackenberg after the Temple Game, then the line went on a streak of games with no sacks.  That only served to lull me into a false sense of security.  This week they added 4 sacks to the stat sheet, but honestly, Hack was running for his life all day.  Michigan's line, on the other hand, stopped our pass rush and gave Jake Ruddock all the time in the world to distribute the ball.  They seemed to effortlessly stand up our All-Big Ten defensive linemen and hold their blocks for as long as they wanted. Consequently, Jake Rudock (25-38 for 256 yds and 2 TDs) out-shined Christian Hackenberg (13-31 for 137 yds and 1 TD) in his own house, in possibly his last game in Beaver Stadium.  Rudock was in a consistent rhythm all day.  By the 4th quarter, Hackenberg was visibly shaken and disoriented from the crushing shots he kept taking.  It was night and day and hard to watch.

Now we get to the playcalling.  Boring, predictable, situationally unaware, we saw it all in this game.  The one positive is that the skill guys in particular have proven they can make chunk plays.  Production has gone down since the Maryland game, but the Lions still had 4 plays of 20+ yds.  That will only get you so far though.  Contrary to my prediction, Saquon Barkley struggled.  He started out like his usual self, sprinting up the middle on his first carry for 56 yds to get the offense inside the 10.  Three stuffed runs later and we were already settling for our first FG.  Worse still, if you set that run aside, Barkley only had 29 yds on 14 carries with no TDs for the rest of the game.  Overall the offense just isn't good at staying on the field.  On critical 3rd downs we converted just 3 out of 14 attempts.  That's not how you win football games.

Arguably the biggest difference between these coaching staffs, though, was game management.  After apologizing for his poor clock management against Northwestern, James Franklin again couldn't get out of his own way.  He wasted time outs in the 2nd half, and played conservatively from behind, especially in the red zone, settling for a FG three times with a TD in reach.  But it was his decision at the end of the 1st half that had myself and seemingly everyone in the stands scratching their heads.  With enough time for a drive and given the fact that Michigan would be getting the ball to start the 2nd half, Franklin chose to take a knee and head to the locker room.  Even ESPN's Mark May agreed that Franklin should have at least tried to put some points on the board.


Meanwhile, the defense, which had been the strength of this team all year, finally showed that maybe they're human after all.  Carl Nassib was injured, and Anthony Zettel was probably playing half speed after almost getting ejected for targeting (which was a bullshit call btw), so the defensive line gets a slight pass.  To the rest of the defense, however, all I can say is tackling, tackling, tackling!  Our admittedly young back seven got bullied by a more physical team.  Brandon Bell went berserk with 5 tackles, a sack, a forced fumble that he recovered himself, and even an interception which he returned for 25 yds.  The other LBs not so much.  Don't get me wrong, Cabinda and Reeder were 2nd and 3rd in tackling, but they missed opportunities and took bad angles all afternoon.  In the secondary, it was yds after the catch.  Back there, injuries again took their toll as both CB Christian Campbell and S Jordan Lucas were out (fellow Senior Malik Golden wore Lucas's #9 in his honor).

If you'd like some in depth game summaries, might I suggest Black Shoe Diaries, or Onward State.

Ok, so how did I do on my prediction?  Well, I was off on the score but I knew we would lose, although that's not much consolation.  I was close with Hackenberg but waaaay off about Saquon Barkley having a big day.  There was no way for me to know about Nassib's injury, and Brandon Bell hogged all the turnovers to himself.  Who are we kidding, when the Lions lose, no one cares about predictions.

Alright, come on back this Wednesday night for the weekly grades.  On Friday I'll try to fit some writing in between my shopping and fill you in on the last game of the regular season.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State! 

Saturday, November 21, 2015

Christian Hackenberg

I couldn't really come up with something to talk about over the bye week.  However, upon reflecting on today's final home game against Michigan, I would be remiss if I didn't take some time and talk about a story that's getting a lot of attention, but for what I believe are the wrong reasons: Christian Hackenberg.


After the Sandusky scandal broke in 2011 and Joe Paterno was fired, a bright, young football mind came to Happy Valley in the form of Bill O'Brien.  Hailed as a QB guru who had coached Tom Brady in a Superbowl victory, O'Brien's first act as coach was to hold a camp for recruits at the "most important position on the field."  If memory serves me correctly, no fewer than 8 QB prospects came out that weekend and none walked away more impressed than Christian Hackenberg.  To this day I don't know what it was, but upon reading an article about the camp, I turned to a coworker and said "Hackenberg... that sounds like a mighty fine name for the next great Penn State QB."  It wasn't until later that I realized he was also a 5-star recruit and the nation's #1 QB prospect.  I was excited when he committed, I was downright giddy when he held firm to that commitment in the face of unprecedented NCAA sanctions.  Throughout his career, I admit I have been one of Hack's biggest apologists.  After Paul Posluzney graduated, and Silas Redd left for USC, I was desperate for a new favorite player, and Hackenberg filled the role nicely long before his first collegiate snap.  Even on his off days I defended his abilities against any critic who offered the challenge.  These days I feel like I have a connection with Hackenberg.  As the hipsters like to say, I was a fan before it was cool.

Well, as much as I've been trying to avoid admitting it, the Michigan game likely marked Christian Hackenberg's last Whiteout, last Senior day, and last game in Beaver Stadium.  As far as I know, he was not honored during the pregame ceremony (because he's not a Senior obviously) which is a shame.  It just feels like he was robbed of the recognition he deserves.  Despite having no emotional connection to the school prior to enrolling, he demonstrated incredible loyalty to Penn State in its darkest hour.  He competed every week on the field and poured his heart into showing us all what it really means to be a Nittany Lion.  As expected from his 5-star rating, Hackenberg will leave school having broke essentially every school passing record there is... by a lot in most cases.  No, he wasn't always perfect, and in some games he was downright awful.  But under his leadership, Penn State would not suffer a single losing season during the sanction era.  They recorded wins against a ranked Northwestern, an undefeated (at the time) Michigan, and a heavily favored Wisconsin on the road, on top of winning a game in Ireland and a bowl game they never thought they'd get to play in.  That's a nice resume by any standard and Hackenberg should be proud of all that he's accomplished while in Happy Valley.  And there's still two more opportunities to showcase his talents while wearing the Blue and White.

So if it comes to pass that Christian Hackenberg does move on after this season, take a second during these last few weeks and honestly reflect on this kid.  Whether the doubters like it or not, he'll go down as a Penn State legend, on par with Franco Harris, Jack Ham, Kerry Collins, and LaVar Arrington.  Let's cheer him on as hard as possible and maybe, just maybe, he can pull off one final miracle against Michigan State or against a quality opponent in the bowl game.  Then, who knows, he might just end up following Bill O'Brien to the NFL after all.

Friday, November 20, 2015

Week 11 Prediction

For some reason that is completely beyond me, ESPN exercised their scheduling rights for this week's slate of Big Ten games (meaning they can basically wait until the last minute to announce the kickoff times).  After making us wait all that time, the big reveal was that we'll be playing Michigan at noon on ABC.  That's right, two marquee programs, in Penn State's last home game of the season, on Senior Day, for the Whiteout game... and they give us fucking NOON?!  I will destroy them all for their insolence!

I really don't like noon games

*calms down*

Anyway, as I was saying, it's once again time to take on the Michigan Wolverines in this year's Whiteout game, which also serves as Senior Day.  It's a trifecta of fun!  First year head man Jim Harbaugh brings the #12 team in the country into Beaver Stadium on what should be a very celebratory day.  This year we honor a special Senior class who represent the last players to ever play for Joe Paterno, and the last remnants of a 2011 team that played through the most notorious scandal in college football history.  Of all the players on that team, this class would have been the easiest to forgive for jumping ship.  Yet nearly all of them stayed true to Penn State.  It's not a big group, but they got the job done.  Thank you Seniors!!!  Special thanks to Kyle Carter, Austin Johnson, Ben Kline, Jordan Lucas, Angelo Mangiro, Trevor Williams, Matt Zanelatto, and of course, Anthony Zettel!

As for the game, it's shaping up to be a low scoring affair in a battle of mediocre offenses vs exceptional defenses.  Let's get to the breakdown!

The Good
Well, at least we have home field advantage!  I'm not just saying that either.  Penn State has won their last 3 home games against the Wolverines, often in front of a Whiteout crowd.  I also think Michigan will be looking ahead to their real rivals, Ohio State, next week.  This is what we in the business call a "let down look ahead" or a "trap" game, and it happens all the time in college.  Whiteout games are magical and strange things have been known to happen.  Fingers crossed that magic continues on Saturday.


Last week against Indiana the Wolverines gave up 238 yds on 35 attempts to RB Jordan Howard, proving that you can run on this defense.  Saquon Barkley, as we all know by now, is an absolute beast and I look for him to have an equally impressive day.  Big time players make big time plays in big time games.  I'm already convinced that Barkley is a big time player; so you do the math.

I'll say it again, our defense is designed to stop pro style offenses, and this is about as pro style as it gets (I recall that Harbaugh guy spending some time in the NFL).  It's quite realistic to expect a performance out of our guys more along the lines of the Rutgers or Illinois games rather than Temple or Ohio State.  The line will get pressure all afternoon and if guys like Grant Haley and Marcus Allen can pick a few lobbed passes out of the air, momentum will do the rest.  Now I'll admit that for as good as our defense is, Michigan is better (arguably, much better).  But the one area where our defense holds a decided advantage is turnovers.  A few of those, plus protecting the football on offense, could serve as the key to this game and equal a Nittany Lion victory!

The Bad
Michigan is currently ranked #12 in the College Football Playoff rankings, and there's a reason for that.  Former coach Brady Hoke couldn't coach very well, but he could sure recruit and let's just say the cupboards weren't bare when Harbaugh arrived on campus.  Mix that in with ol' Jimmy's coaching acumen and you've got yourselves a winning program.  Unfortunately we have to play them every year... including at noon tomorrow.

The Nittany Lions, who are coming off their much deserved bye week, are actually 0-4 coming off bye weeks since the start of the 2013 season.  Past performance is not an indicator of future performance yeah yeah yeah, but damn, that doesn't leave me confident.

As for personnel, offensively the biggest name to watch out for is Jake Butt, a talented WR/TE who leads the team in reception yds and is a threat from pretty much anywhere on the field.  He's a big body that can bowl over many of your second level defenders.  Next to him is the speedy De'Veon Smith at RB, who will hopefully struggle against a dominant PSU defensive front.  The more talented backs on Penn State's schedule were able to have success this year.  Hopefully Smith isn't one of them.

The strength of Michigan's stellar defense is their secondary.  They have the ability to shut down even the most talented WR corps, enabling them to stuff the box against the run (aka Saquon Barkley).  Led by Jourdan Lewis and stud recruit Jabrill Peppers, they're possibly the best defensive backfield in the conference.  Oh, and Peppers is also a dangerous return man who can take it to the house if the coverage teams aren't paying attention.

Speaking of special teams, Penn State hasn't been great on kick off coverages.  Michigan has been great at kick off returns (re: Peppers).  We're also bad at coverting 3rd downs, while they're good at stopping them.  This leads to lots of punting, something we're been known to suck at.  Still, if things bounce the Lions' way in these two areas, expect a possible upset.  If they bounce the other way, though, the score could get ugly in a hurry.

The Story
The last time these teams played each other in Beaver Stadium it was an instant classic 4OT thriller (that I watched on a TV in the parking lot because I couldn't get a ticket).  Like the 2005 Ohio State game, that matchup will go down in Penn State history.  So let us now take a second and recall fondly: the catch.  Here's to another instant classic tomorrow.

This dude is killing it in Jacksonville btw

Michigan QB Jake Rudock is actually a transfer from Iowa, which is incredibly rare in college football.  Usually, coaches have immense sway over where and even IF their players can transfer.  A ban from transferring to another school in your conference is basically an unspoken rule.  And yet, here we are.  Honestly, it's worked out for both teams as Iowa is currently 10-0 without Rudock and Michigan has managed to get 2,220 yds passing out of him, along with an 8-2 record.

But the real story is Jim Harbaugh.  In a surprising move, he became one of the only successful NFL coaches in history to make the switch "down" to the college level (usually it's the other way around or bad NFL coaches come to college).  After coaching in a Superbowl, he returned to his alma mater and turned a 5-7 (3-5 Big Ten) squad into the country's #12 team in less than one season.  Harbaugh is an evil football genius, and his battles with James Franklin, Urban Meyer, and Mark Dantonio in the Big Ten East Division should provide some very entertaining football for years to come.  This could be the start of a beautiful hatred.

The Prediction
Penn State comes in a mere 3.5 point underdog.  I think that's more a reflection of the low score people are expecting and less about the perceived talent gap between the two teams (most people think Michigan has significantly more talent).  I think Hackenberg plays inspired and throws for 150 yds and a TD (which is actually really good against this Michigan secondary).  But it's Saquon Barkley that puts up the big numbers.  I'm calling it right now, he goes for 200 yds and a TD!  On the other side of the ball, Carl Nassib keeps the streak alive and adds another sack to his total while Austin Johnson forces a fumble that's recovered by Anthony Zettel.  Regrettably, S Jordan Lucas is injured, but fellow Senior Trevor Williams gets an interception for his fallen teammate.  However, despite all of this, it's not enough to beat the superior team.  Michigan breaks everyone's heart in a close one.  Final score, 17 - 21

Alright, that will do it for tonight.  Sorry this got out late, my new work schedule is brutal.  Check back on Saturday night for a special piece on Christian Hackenberg, then stop by on Monday night for the weekly wrap up.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Week 10 Grades

We finally did it!  Penn State has made it to their bye week!  After 10 grueling weeks in a row, the grind of the season clearly took its toll on the Nittany Lions.  They couldn't get it done and finish off Northwestern, despite clinging to a 1 point lead in the final minutes.  In the end, they fell to the Wildcats, 23-21.  Every player on the team will now get some much needed rest before a brutal final two games against the Michigan schools.  We'll get to that more next Friday, but for now, let's roll out some grades!  

Offense
QB: (D/B+) I think this is the first time I've ever given out two grades to the same position.  The simple fact is Christian Hackenberg was a completely different QB in the 1st half (1 of 10) than he was in the 2nd half (20 of 30).  All told he threw for 205 yds with no TDs, but he did throw his first interception in what seems like forever (and only his 3rd of the year).  With the way he's played of late, I want to be optimistic that he's trending upwards... against the Wolverines and Spartans, though?  Baring a miracle, Hack will most likely end the season on a sour note.  But hey, there's always the bowl game!  

OL: (B) They couldn't get a solid push when they needed to in the run game.  However, in pass protection, the big uglies up front have gotten better each week.  Hackenberg is no longer running for his life, and for the most part he had more than enough time to make his reads throughout Saturday's contest.  The only problem is he wouldn't get rid of the ball!  Those kinds of mental errors reflect poorly on the offensive line, but they shouldn't.  This group is slowly gelling, and by next season, I expect them to start dominating.

RB: (A-) There was a time when rushing for 100 yds in a game was considered impressive - last season for example.  But when Saquon Barkley is your RB, that's considered an off day.  Barkley currently ranks 39th nationally in rushing yds per attempt and 34th in total rushing yds with 836 (keep in mind that he missed two games due to injury and basically didn't play against Temple).  Even still, he is the most productive true freshmen in the country by nearly 100 yds!  He is for real ladies and gentlemen.  Everything you’re seeing is actually happening.  Oh, against Northwestern he ran for 133 yds and 2 TDs while catching 6 passes for another 50 yds... you know, just in case you were wondering.

WR: (A) Chris Godwin led the way again with 8 catches for 104 yds and is turning into a reliable target for... who are we kidding?  The only play that mattered for this group was the ridiculous double-reverse gone awry, turned TD pass from Geno Lewis to Daesean Hamilton.  It was insane, unbelievable, *insert adjective here*!!!  Keep this in mind: no matter who is playing QB next year (news flash, it won't be Hackenberg), they will have arguably the top WR corps in the country.  Our days of worrying about offensive production might soon be over.

TE: (F) "The beatings will continue until morale improves."  This famous phrase certainly applies to this group.  They will continue to get Fs until I see them do something that even remotely resembles playing football.  Despite each of them making a catch, Mike Gesicki dropped 3 passes while Kyle Carter dropped at least 1.  I'm not even going to name the third TE on the roster because he hasn't done enough to be recognized.  Seriously, can we get Bill O'Brien back, at least to be our TEs coach?

Defense
DL: (A) What's left to say about this group?  I honestly can't name another team/school, at least since I've been paying attention to college football, that has no fewer than three early round draft picks currently starting on their defensive line.  These guys are amazing and so much fun to watch!  Austin Johnson led the team in tackles against Northwestern with 10, including 2 for a loss and a sack.  Carl Nassib *only* had 4 tackles and a sack (although he leads the nation with 16 sacks and 6 forced fumbles).  And Garrett Sickels tacked on 3 more tackles as well as a sack of his own.  We have three games left with these guys, enjoy it.

LB: (B+) Brandon Bell had his best game of the season.  He was second on the team in tackles with 8, but more impressively he had 3.5 tackles for a loss, 2.5 of which were sacks!  Troy Reeder wasn't too shabby either with 6 tackles.  And although Jason Cabinda only had 3 tackles, he had a sack and an interception.  All in all, a good day.  Here's the thing, though, if you actually watched the game on Saturday, the LBs consistently took bad angles and missed tackles because of it.  There's no other way of putting it; they're terrible against running QBs.  However, no one from this group will graduate in the offseason.  If they can work on that over the summer, they'll be unstoppable by this time next year.

DB: (A-) Marcus Allen, 7 tackles and a forced fumble.  Malik Golden, 6 tackles.  Grant Haley, 4 tackles, a forced fumble, and a pass breakup.  Trevor Williams, 3 tackles including 1 for a loss.  Yep, I'd say the future is pretty bright in the defensive backfield.  My only gripe from the game was Grant Haley missing two easy interceptions.  Not only would that have made my prediction come true, the second one probably would've won the game for Penn State if he had managed to pull it in.  Oh well, they're still awesome.

Special Teams
K: (D) But didn't Tyler Davis hit all 3 extra points? Yes.  And he didn't miss any FGs because he didn't attempt any, right? Correct.  Well then, what's with the grade Optimus?  A 96 yd kickoff returned for a TD on one of many squib kicks, where the key missed tackle was by none other than Tyler himself.  That's why.

P: (C) Pasquariello wasn't awful, getting the ball inside the 20 once and getting a touch back once.  Chris Gulla only punted twice but looked pretty bad both times.  Meanwhile I'm just sitting here waiting for Blake Gilikin to show up.

Today's bonus grade is a B, which of course stands for BYE WEEK!

Alright, that will do it for Northwestern.  I'm going to try to come up with something this week to celebrate the bye, but obviously I haven't decided on what that is just yet.  If I can't come up with something, be sure to check back next Friday as Penn State plays it's last home game of the season vs Michigan in a full stadium White Out!  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Monday, November 9, 2015

Week 10 Wrap Up

Well, the prognosticators nailed it again.  They had called for a Wildcat victory by 2, and that's exactly what we got.  Northwestern pulled out the win on a last second FG for a final score of 23-21.  But no one could have guessed HOW it would all go down in one of the crazier defensive battles of the season.  No, this was not your stereotypical last second heartbreaker; the sad truth is Penn State didn't deserve to win.  And yet, with the way they overcame first half mistakes and admirably fought until the very end, they kind of did deserve it.  What's worse is that had it not been for clock management issues, they were in a position to win and might be sitting at 8-2 right now.  Instead, let's take a look back at yet another disappointing loss under James Franklin.

Before we do that, though, I wanted to quickly share a lighter story.  When I was a kid, I loved LEGOs.  So I was super excited when I found out about one fan who makes mini LEGO replicas of iconic stadiums.  And when he decided to design five Big Ten versions, you can bet Beaver Stadium was one of those chosen.  He even sells them on Etsy!

Anyway, let's get into what happened by starting with an injury report.  TE Adam Breneman, backup CB Christian Campbell, and backup LT Chasz Wright all didn't make the trip to Evanston.  Kicker Joey Julius didn't make the trip either, although for performance reasons.  Instead, Tyler Davis and walk-on Robbie Leibel handled kicking duties.  During the game, S Jordan Lucas and DE Carl Nassib would both leave and not return.  Good thing we're on a long overdue bye week!

So, what happened?

Well, Penn State started with the ball, and Hackenberg immediately nailed a referee in the head on what looked like a surefire 1st down pass.  Oops.  After an offsides penalty, Danny Pasquariello made his first of many appearances.  Meanwhile, on their first possession, Northwestern’s QB Clayton Thorson turned out to be a decent passer.  He got the Wildcats deep into PSU territory but it would ultimately end with a missed FG, leaving the score at 0-0.

An otherwise forgettable pass to Chris Godwin, on an otherwise forgettable drive, helped Christian Hackenberg set another Penn State single-season record, this time for completions.  Punt.  Back on defense, Brandon Bell got his first of two sacks, while Austin Johnson’s 56th tackle of the season made him the national leader for tackles by a DT.  Punt.  Neither Barkley nor Hackenberg could really get anything going on their own.  In fact, Penn State's first 1st down of the day came by way of a questionable roughing the passer penalty.  It wouldn't mean much.  Punt.  Clayton Thorson also tried his best to wake up his team, but spent most of the time getting punished by our defense.  Punt.

By this point it was clear that both defensive lines were exceptional; they just did it in different ways.  While Penn State gets in the backfield and puts pressure on the QB, Northwestern gets their hands up and swats down anything that comes their way, particularly Hackenberg's passes.  It seemed like they tipped every other throw!

Thorson would try to carry his team, but also paid the price for doing so.  He took his second massive hit of the day and went down hard, this time winding up in the locker room being evaluated by trainers.  He would not return.  So his back up, senior Zack Oliver took over.  Punt.  Godwin proved once again that he can make clutch receptions... Mike Gesicki proved once again that he cannot.  By Onward State's count, he dropped 3 catches on Saturday.  Punt.

At the start the 2nd quarter, Northwestern's Warren Long had a nice 35 yd run that got his team into the redzone where Zack Oliver delivered a dart to the back of endzone for a 7-0 lead.  Penn State would punt, then Northwestern's Justin Jackson took over the game.  He got his team inside the 5 where Oliver faked a handoff and punched it in himself.  A missed extra point, gave the Wildcats a 13-0 lead and things were starting to look dire.

It was time for Saquon Barkley to wake the offense up.  He made his presence felt with a 31 yd completion, and after a 20 yd pass to Chris Godwin, lined up in the wildcat.  I hated this formation last year, but with Saquon in charge?  I've slowly come around.  Sure enough, he kept it, cut around the outside, and took it in for the touchdown and the Lions' first points of the day.

The celebration was cut short as Solomon Vault took the ensuing kickoff 96 yds to the house, even after initially fumbling the return.  Everything was bouncing Northwestern's way.  Koa Farmer tried to answer with his own impressive return out to the 38 yd line.  Unfortunately, a sack on Hackenberg would stall the drive.  Punt.  The defense would hold into halftime.

With the ball to start the 2nd half, Zack Oliver couldn't really do much.  Punt.  Surprisingly, neither could Barkley.  Punt.  Despite good starting field position, NW stalled again.  Punt.  Another PSU three-and-out.  Punt.  Are you sensing a theme yet?  Finally, with Justin Jackson firing on all cylinders, the Wildcats put together a drive long enough to attempt a FG... but once again, they missed.

Now contrary to the announcer's comments, the offensive line had actually played fairly well to this point.  In most cases it was Hackenberg holding the ball or WRs dropping passes that had caused the offensive futility.  All the punting must have tired out Pasquariello, because Chris Gulla took over at punter.  Also around this time, Northwestern started to make uncharacteristic mistakes.  Gulla drew a roughing the kicker penalty that gave the Lions a 1st down at the 45 yd line.  Hackenberg took off on a rare QB sneak and drew a hit late penalty.  It would all set up the single most amazing play of the day, and possibly the season.  It was so ridiculous I'm still trying to process what exactly we all witnessed.  Here's the gist: Hackenberg handed the ball off to Brandon Polk, who in turn tried to hand it off to Geno Lewis on a double reverse... except Polk fumbled it.  Luckily, the ball bounced off the ground and right into Lewis' waiting arms.  Geno planted his feet, wound up, and launched a bomb down the sideline to fellow WR Daesean Hamilton who dove for the pylon for the touchdown!  The score was now 20-14 and momentum had completely swung in Penn State's favor.

On the next drive, LB Jason Cabinda got his first interception of the year, and although the Nittany Lion offense couldn't capitalize for points, it completely flipped the field position.  More penalties on Northwestern would end the 3rd quarter.

Carl Nassib started off theg final quarter in a big way, setting a record in the process.  His 15.5 sack of the season came in the form of a bone-crushing clothesline to Zack Oliver and set the all-time Penn State mark which had stood since the late 70s!  Congrats Carl!!!

That's when the Saquon Barkley show began.  He took a run up the middle for 23 yds, followed by another gain of 13 yds right afterwards.  Chris Godwin got his hands under a low pass for 26 more and all of a sudden Penn State was at the Northwestern 12 yd line.  Just like before, Barkley lined up in the wildcat and ended it the same way, only more impressively!  The kick by Tyler Davis gave Penn State its first lead of the day, 21-20!

PSU's fifth sack of the day and a near interception by Troy Apke kept hope alive.  Punt.  Barkley kept things rolling with two 1st downs, but came up limping and went to the sideline.  With his RB out, Hackenberg dropped back and was sacked, then intercepted by Nick VanHoose on the next play.  It was Hack's first turnover in 203 attempts, which is disappointing, but simultaneously impressive.  Penn State's sixth sack of the game came at the hands of Garrett Sickels.  Combined with an epic all-out blitz on 3rd and 17, it was just too much pressure.  Punt.  Penn State took over with 3 minutes left, nursing a 1 point lead, and starting at their own 5 yd line.  This time the wildcat formation didn't work and Pasquariello came back out.  A favorable roll pinned NW at their own 45.

Grant Haley almost intercepted his second pass of the day, which would have not only fulfilled my prediction, it would have effectively ended the game.  Instead, on 3rd and 15, WR Austin Carr went for 25 yds but more importantly got Northwestern into FG range.  After another 1st down, it was obvious that Pat Fitzgerald would drain the clock and try a last minute FG.  However, despite having all 3 of his time outs, James Franklin stood firm on the sidelines and waited -- 2nd down and only 22 seconds left (time out); 3rd down with 18 seconds left (time out); 4th down with 13 seconds left (time out).  Afterwards, all the coach had to say was "that was my missed opportunity."  Sure enough, Jack Mitchell put it right down the middle to give his team a 23-21 lead and the win.

Obviously, this was not Penn State's finest hour.  It also wasn't their low point either.  As Cari Green from Black Shoe Diaries puts it, the sky isn't falling.  This program has been here before, and they'll be here again.  You can still be a fan, you can still be proud, and you can still have one heck of a time doing both.

Ok, how did I do?  Well I basically nailed the score, but for the wrong teams.  Hackenberg did have over 200 yds (205 to be exact), but he threw his first pick since week 3 instead of another TD pass.  Barkley "only" had 133 yds rushing, but if you add in his 50 yds receiving, he more than eclipsed the 150 yds I predicted, plus he scored 2 TDs like I called!  Thankfully special teams wasn't a problem as Tyler Davis nailed all his extra points, including the one that gave Penn State a late lead and hope for a win.  On defense, Carl Nassib only had 1 sack, but he also had a forced fumble.  Austin Johnson actually led the team with 10 tackles, and it was Jason Cabinda, not Grant Haley, who recorded the interception.  Overall, probably one of my better weeks.

Alright, that will do it for today.  Check back in on Wednesday for my weekly grades before we head into the much anticipated bye week.  I'll see if I can come up with something special for then.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Friday, November 6, 2015

Week 10 Prediction

People are finally starting to notice Penn State (especially at 4-1 in conference play), and the boys in blue are creeping their way closer and closer to the rankings.  They'll have a great opportunity this week to get a quality win on the road as they travel to Evanston, IL to take on the #21 Northwestern Wildcats at Ryan Field.  Things are scheduled to kickoff at noon on ESPNU (or the WatchESPN app).  A win over a ranked team would be the first of the Franklin era and almost certainly result in PSU being ranked themselves for the first time since 2011.  So let's get to the breakdown!

The Good
Pat Fitzgerald's crew is coming off a bye and his teams have traditionally struggled coming out of a week off.  That bodes well for Penn State.  Couple that with the fact that Christian Hackenberg is playing some of his best football right now, the WRs are stepping up, and Saquon Barkley is becoming a household name, and you just might have a winning combination.  Not to mention our defense is still amazing.

Just going by the stats, the big takeaway is that both teams have defenses which are significantly better than either offense.  Then again, Penn State's offense has steadily improved all season long, with bad early numbers skewing the present reality.  Hack & friends are clicking on all cylinders at the moment and look as confident as they may have ever looked.  Meanwhile, Northwestern enters this week's game last in the Big Ten in scoring offense (20.9 points per game) and total offense (331.8 yds per game).  To give you an idea of what they're working with, their best receiving target is a fullback.  In 8 games so far, they have only managed a total of 14 TDs.  For comparison, Christian Hackenberg has 16 TDs by himself (that includes passing, rushing, and receiving).  If trends continue, the key matchup could prove to be the key to a Nittany Lion victory.

Oh, and who knows, we might get Andrew Nelson back at LT!

The Bad
Unlike Penn State (with only 5 seniors starting), Northwestern has 12 seniors playing in a starting capacity.  This veteran presence has played a big part in the overall success of Pat Fitzgerald's squad and it's a stark contrast with the freshmen-heavy roster of PSU.  Look for them to make fewer mistakes, fewer mental errors, and possibly fewer penalties.  That's been their model all year and I wouldn't expect it to change on Saturday.

Northwestern's QB Clayton Thorson is a redshirt freshman, so he's still making freshman mistakes from time to time (that might explain his 52% completions).  He's kind of a mobile QB, carrying the ball 64 times so far this season.  But he rarely takes off on designed runs and he's nowhere near the level of JT Barrett (Ohio State), Zander Diamont (Indiana), or Perry Hills (Maryland).  Regardless, James Franklin has had back ups Trace McSorely and Tommy Stevens (both of whom are much more mobile than Hack) line up against the first string defense at practice this week in order to best simulate this style of offense.  Mobile QBs have been the Achilles heel of this Penn State defense all year; let's hope they've finally figured it out.

But the biggest thing the Lions will likely need to prepare for is that nasty Wildcat defense.  They are led by standout LB Anthony Walker, who sealed Northwestern's win over Penn State last year with a pick-six.  Really though, the whole defense has proven to be dominant.  Not only do they usually shut down the run, but their secondary is borderline elite, and they're getting their interception-leader Matthew Harris back from injury.  Northwestern is one of just six Big Ten teams that is allowing fewer than 20 points per game (17.4), and if you were impressed by Penn State's shut out, well the Wildcats have two already this year.  It will be interesting to see how NW divides their attention.  Maryland and Illinois focused exclusively on the run and got beat over the top.  Could more focus on the aerial attack open up Barkley for a big day?

The Story
The Wildcats are in the same boat as Iowa (albeit with a worse record): they play fundamentally sound team-oriented football, with strong defense, and just enough offense to win.  Their style of play is so incredibly nondescript that before doing my research, I honestly couldn't name one player on their team.  Yes, they're forgettable, but they're still an incredibly tough matchup.  PSU better come prepared or they'll go home very disappointed.

As the only private school in the Big Ten, Northwestern has the highest tuition, the smallest enrollment, the smallest stadium, and (almost every year) the lowest attendance figures.  In his press conference earlier this week, James Franklin eluded to something about Northwestern's "environment" that was making him a little uneasy.  He would not specify as to what exactly it was about Ryan Field that had him nervous, so I'll leave that up to your imagination.  Maybe it's the fact that the game is at noon.  Of course, that means it will actually be 11am at the game site, which is located in the central time zone.  As a result, Penn State's head coach has bumped up nearly all pregame preparations (meetings, walk-throughs, etc) by an hour to compensate for any biological clock issues.

The Prediction
The numbers are kind of all over the place for this one, but suffice it to say this is expected to be a close game.  I think strictly based on home field advantage (which is usually good for 3 automatic points), Northwestern is favored by around 2.5 points.  However, I've seen most commentators saying they think Penn State will cover the spread.  In other words, they expect NW to win, but only by about 1-2 points.  I could see that happening.

In the end, I think this ends up as a low scoring affair.  Hackenberg throws for 200 yds, but only scores once on a deep ball to Chris Godwin.  Freed up by the reduced attention, Barkley has a great day rushing with 150+ and 2 TDs.  Whoever the kicker winds up being makes one and misses one as the special teams woes continue.  On defense, things go the same as they have all year.  Carl Nassib gets 2 sacks, Jason Cabinda leads the team in tackles, and Grant Haley gets an interception.  Ho hum, it's almost boring how ridiculously good these guys are at this point.  It's not a shut out, though, and Clayton Thorson gets more than a few plays off to keep it extremely close.  But Penn State pulls out a squeaker.  What I thought was a surefire loss most of the season, I'm now calling a 24-21 victory.

That will do it for tonight.  Be sure to check back in on Monday for the weekly wrap up.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Week 9 Grades

Time for us to move on from Monday's technical issues, and focus back on the lopsided victory at Beaver Stadium on Saturday.  The Nittany Lions had their most complete game of the season and walked away with a 39-0 win over Illinois to put them at 7-2 on the season (4-1 in Big Ten play).  The final stretch of games looks brutal, so let's revel in this win as much as possible and roll out some grades!

Offense
QB: (A+) Christian Hackenberg already held Penn State records for most career pass attempts, 200-yd games, and 300-yd games.  Last week he became the school's all-time yardage and completions leader as well.  Now, with his 45 career TD passes, he only needs one more to tie Matt "Moxy" McGloin's school record of 46.  So far this season, he's eclipsed last year's TD total, while staying 13 under his 2014 interception total, and that's with 4 games left.  In the last 6 games, he's completed 57% of his passes for 1,415 yds and 12 TDs to 0 INTs.  He also has 2 rushing TDs, and shockingly a 14 yd TD reception.  Against Illinois he had his best game of the year, going 21-29 for 266 yds and 2 TDs.  Those are the stats my friends.  Some don't like it, oh well.

Players like Hack just gonna play

OL: (C+) With the continued absence of RT Andrew Nelson due to injury, the line was forced into their 7th starting combination in 9 games.  The line looked like this: Paris Palmer, Angelo Mangiro, Wendy Laurent, Brian Gaia, Brendan Mahon.  They held up fairly well given the circumstances, but overall there's still a lot of work to do.  Small running lanes and 3 sacks point to flaws that Illinois simply couldn't exploit like other teams have and will.  Still, the numbers don't lie.  Much of Hackenberg's recent success throwing the ball is due to increased time from the offensive line.  They're getting better.

RB: (A-) Barkley, on the other hand, is incredible!  While some players dream of having 2-3 signature plays in a season, he has that many each game.  And none was more impressive than the TD he scored against Illinois.  Especially early on, the Illini defense seemed to take a page out of Maryland's playbook, stacking the box to defend against the run.  That's why Barkley's 84 yds and 1 TD on 20 attempts doesn't necessarily jump out.  But it was more than enough to get the job done.  I will say that in garbage time at the end, both backup QB Trace McSorely (who ran 3 times for 15 yds) and 4th string RB Mark Allen looked really sharp, with Allen scoring his first rushing TD.  The future looks very bright at this position.

WR: (A+) No position looks brighter right now, however, than WR!  By game's end, 5 different receivers caught passes along with a RB, a TE, and even the QB!  Each man seems to have a defined role now, and it's paying dividends.  Chris Godwin is the top target and deep threat (with 7 catches and a TD).  Daesean Hamilton is the possession man in the slot (adding another 4 grabs for 54 yds).  Geno Lewis can high-point the ball like no one else and excels in the redzone (where he's caught 2 TDs in 2 games).  And DeAndre Thompkins and Brandon Polk are speedy WR/RB hybrids, tailor-built for the jet sweep.  That's not even mentioning the potential of Saeed Blacknall and Juwan Johnson!  If Hackenberg does magically stick around for another year, it will be strictly because he wants to play with these guys again.

TE: (B-) Although Kyle Carter didn't have a catch, Mike Gesicki finally stopped dropping balls long enough to have 2 catches for 26 yds in this one.  Still no sign of Adam Breneman contributing anytime soon, and Brent Wilkerson seems to have fallen off a cliff.  I get that the TE position isn't very important in John Donovan's offense... but I just see that as yet more reason to hate John Donovan.  They also need to work on their blocking more.

Defense
DL: (A+) The defensive line has had sacks in their last 31 consecutive games, including 4 more today.  Guess what, that's an NCAA record!  Between those sacks and tackles for loss, Penn State's opponents are averaging 44.7 negative rush yds per game.  They held Illinois to 37 net rush yds and as a whole, the defense pitched a shut out.  The 167 total yds they did give up were not only the fewest yds allowed all season, they were the fewest allowed in a Big Ten game since 2009 (against Minnesota)!  Austin Johnson led the group with 5 tackles and a sack.  Carl Nassib and Anthony Zettel added sacks of their own while bringing pressure all day long.  What more is there to say about these guys!?

LB: (A-) Jason Cabinda led the team in tackles with 7, but it was Troy Reeder who got all the attention with a 44 yd interception that almost went for a score.  It was the redshirt freshman's first INT as a Nittany Lion.  With 12 total tackles by the three starters, it wasn't this group's most productive day.  They also left much to be desired in covering the slot.  Illinois' Wes Lunt had most of his success across the middle, right in LB territory.  Michigan and MSU have strong passing attacks and will look to take advantage of this in the coming weeks.  But the good news is, no more running QBs!

DB: (B-) They got beat way more than I expected; then again, they saw more shots in this game than they might have seen all year combined.  I will say that I've been a fan of Marcus Allen since his very first game after Ryan Keiser's injury last year.  He continues to impress me with his incredibly intense, hard-hitting style.  The phrase "flying around" gets overused, especially by ESPN, but it absolutely applies to Allen.  He's a star in the making, along with CB John Reid.

Special Teams
K: (F) This was not pretty.  Joey Julius started things off with 2 blocked extra points (that thankfully didn't matter), then followed it up with a kick out of bounds.  Tyler Davis also had a kick out of bounds, although he made 2 FGs and all 3 of his extra points.  Apparently, the poor showing has prompted James Franklin to look into other kicking options than the Big Toe.  The shining moment was Koa Farmer's kick return into Illini territory.

P: (C-) Nothing special, but nothing bad.  No shanked punts that I can remember, but no booming ones with great hang time either.  DeAndre Thompkins' fumbled return late in the game almost cost the defense their shut out, otherwise, nothing bad stood out.  Hence, they get a perfectly average C-

This week's bonus grade goes to the student section who gets an A-.  They looked great in their Halloween costumes and really brought a nice energy to THON Day with the yellow ribbon next to the S-zone.  However, they remain terrible at filling up their section for noon kickoffs.

Alright, that will do it for Illinois week.  This week's game against Northwestern is the last game before the Lions finally get a bye.  Then, we head into the final 2-game home stretch!  Check back in on Friday for my prediction.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Monday, November 2, 2015

Week 9 Wrap Up

I'm not gonna lie, this hurts.  I had today's entire post written and it just need a little editing, but Blogspot/Blogger's auto save function apparently decided not to work properly.  When I navigated away from the page, I lost it all.  I'm really upset about this, but there's no way to get it back now.  So instead, today's post will be a little shorter than normal, and in a slight departure from my normal commentary, I'm going to include a lot more links than usual to get you caught up on Saturday's action.  I'm really sorry folks, and I hope this makes up for the loss of what was shaping up to be a pretty darn good wrap up.  Anyway, here we go.

As I mentioned in my Prediction post, ESPN's College Gameday was in town for the Temple v Notre Dame game.  The show visits the site of the top college football game each week and has become famous for Lee Corso's "head gear" pick, as well as all the creative signs that fans hold up in the background during the broadcast.  Philly proved to be just as snarky with their signs as any college campus.  Personally, I had a really great time just being around all the football fans and, thanks to the power of DVR, I still managed to catch the entire game from the beginning (albeit on about a 20 minute delay until halftime).  Speaking of the game, let's get to it!

It was a beautiful day in Happy Valley (at least from what I could tell on TV) as the Nittany Lions returned home on Halloween to take on the Fighting Illini of Illinois.  An impressive defensive effort led to the team's first shut out in years, while the offense finally came alive in a BIG way!  When all was said and done, the contest went in the books as a 39-0 butt-kicking, and Penn State moved to 7-2 with a perfect record at home.  A season once thought to be lost is turning more and more positive by the week.  Not only is PSU definitely headed to a bowl, but each win moves them up the pecking order towards a more prestigious bowl in a more exotic location.  The Lions will look to ride this momentum for one more game, on the road at Northwestern, before they take a much deserved bye week to rest up for the final stretch.

We'll get to Christian Hackenberg's accomplishments a little more on Wednesday, but suffice it to say he had his best game of the season and one of his best games as a Penn Stater.  Here's what both Lions247 and the student-run website Onward State had to say about the gunslinger's incredible afternoon.

Now, to really get the link parade going, we'll start with a "link dump" from Black Shoe Diaries, which is a list of interesting links to articles about the game from various sources... so, basically what today's post is turning into.  It's a link dump inside a link dump... that's like, link dump inception.

Am I blowing your mind?

Next, we have a nice gallery of photos from the game courtesy of Onward State, to go along with some interesting quotes from the players' post-game Q&A sessions.  Anthony Zettel was definitely the most entertaining of the bunch, wearing a hockey mask while fielding questions and acting like nothing out of the ordinary was happening.

Of course, what would a wrap up post be without some game summaries?  Nothing, that's what!  So not only do we have two from BSD, but Onward State chips in yet again and gives their take as well. Here's the basic gist, Penn State played exceptionally well on both sides of the ball (the special teams, however, was quite awful) and they ended up destroying an Illinois team that had surprised and been competitive for most of the season.  The best part, though, was the big plays, and boy were there a lot of big plays!  We'll focus on 3 for the sake of time.  To start the 2nd half, redshirt freshman Koa Farmer, who has spent his career thus far bouncing back and forth between LB and S, showed that his real talent is at kick returner.  A little later in the 3rd quarter (and only a few weeks after showing his wheels on 2 TD runs) Christian Hackenberg decided to add a receiving TD to his resume... yes, you read that correctly.  But it was the human highlight reel, Saquon Barkley, that really stole the spotlight.  Towards the beginning of the 4th quarter, the newly christened "Air Barkley" continued to demonstrate his affinity for hurdling tacklers and making them look silly.  Just like Michael "Air" Jordan used to take off from the free-throw line on dunks, Barkley channeled the basketball star, taking off from the 5 yd line and crashing through three defenders on his way to the endzone!  It was glorious and absolutely love watching this kid play.  He's something special.

Looking back, there was a lot to take away from this game, and almost all of it was positive.  Jeff Rice took away 5 things from the game, while Adam Collyer had 44 thoughts.  A couple of students who were at the game weighed in with their first-hand observations.  Personally, I saw the return of our dominating defense.  I saw the fall of our once proud special teams.  And I saw an offense that has come to life thanks in no small part to the sensational Barkley, whose incredible play has in turn taken pressure off a passing attack that is finally starting to look how we had envisioned it for so long.

So how did I do with my prediction?  Well, I was nowhere near the correct final score and I never would have anticipated the shut out.  Chris Godwin did get another TD pass, but Geno Lewis grabbed the other (his second in as many games) not Daesean Hamilton.  I also never could have guessed that Christian Hackenberg would collect a receiving TD of his own.  Although Barkley performed very well, he had about half the yardage I predicted.  Carl Nassib only got 1 sack, not 2, and it was LB Troy Reeder who picked off Wes Lunt, not CB John Reid.  All in all, I didn't do so well this week, but when you whoop a team 39-0, who really cares?

That will do it for tonight.  I'm still really disappointed that a really great post will never see the light of day.  Hopefully all these links were enough to satisfy your appetites and reminisce about an otherwise delightful game.  Check back here on Wednesday for the weekly grades.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!