Behold the Land Grant Trophy in all its hideousness
The all-time series is tied up at 14 games a piece. Michigan State won three of the last five meetings, including the last two in a row. Under the old Legends/Leaders Divisions, the teams did not play from 2011-2013. Hence, Penn State hasn't won since 2009 with Darrell Clark at QB... yeah. Unfortunately, things aren't looking too good for bringing this monstrosity back to State College. Let's find out why in this week's breakdown!
The Good
Michigan State's star QB (and NFL scouting rival of Christian Hackenberg) Connor Cook is currently suffering from a shoulder injury. If he remains out for tomorrow's game, either Tyler O'Connor or Damien Terry will share QB duties. O'Connor is the pure passer, while Terry is more of a duel threat. Either one of them will have WR Aaron Burbridge to throw to, who leads the team in receptions and TDs. But without Cook under center, it's safe to say the offense will be a shell of its former self no matter what strategy they employ. That's good news for our defense.
The one area you could call a weakness for Michigan State's defense is their secondary. Our passing stats actually line up pretty favorably against them. If Hack & Co can have a game like they did against Maryland and bomb it all over the field, that might be their best chance to pull the upset, and oh what an upset it would be.
Despite nailing the game winning FG against Ohio State, kicker Michael Geiger is only 9-14 on the year. If we keep it close, can he be trusted to hit another game winner two weeks in a row? Hopefully not.
The Bad
Carl Nassib might be hurt and possibly won't play. He only played one series last week, and without him the defensive production, especially along the line, dropped off in a big way. If he remains out, I expect more of the same decline. It's bad enough that Jordan Lucas is out, we can't afford to lose much more senior leadership or breakdowns are inevitable.
Verses the Buckeyes, and absent a potent passing attack with Cook's injur, MSU's RBs Gerald Holmes and L.J. Scott combined for over 200 yds rushing. If called upon again, they can easily grind out an ugly win.
Defensively, Shilique Calhoun leads the team with 11.5 tackles for a loss and 8.5 sacks. That's not good news for our offensive line. In fact, both offenses give up a fair amount of sacks so this could turn into a good ol' fashioned sackfest for both teams! Hackenberg is used to that, can we honestly say the same thing about the Spartan QBs? Overall, MSU's defense is good, but not quite great. I still expect them to be able to shut down this terrible PSU offense, though, and make it hard for both Hackenberg and Saquon Barkley to threaten them in any way.
As a coaching battle, this is the second week in a row that it's not even close. So far this season Michigan State's Mark Dantonio has managed to out coach Jim Harbaugh AND Urban Meyer, beating both living legends in their home stadiums with arguably inferior talent. I hate to say it, but James Franklin is no Harbaugh or Meyer. If it comes down to a chess match of game management, the Nittany Lions are toast.
The Story
Franklin's crew doesn't really have much to play for this week and could come out flat. About the only thing Penn State can do by winning is cause chaos in the Big Ten/Playoff pictures. Michigan State, on the other hand, is playing for EVERYTHING! A few years ago they went 6-6 after losing a number of close games. Conversely, this season they've found a way to win five out of six games decided by a score or less. This past week they were the big story in college football when they beat previously undefeated and reigning National Champion Oho State in their own house. That win provided a major shake up in the national rankings. Now the Spartans control their own destiny. Win, and they play Iowa for the Big Ten Championship and an almost guaranteed spot in the playoff. Lose, and the winner of Michigan vs OSU takes their place in both (which means we'll have an unlikely ally rooting for PSU at the conclusion of that game). There's no need for Sparty to "wake up" for this one. Penn State is going to get Michigan State's best shot, and that means it could get ugly fast. How do we avoid that? Well, to quote Black Shoe Diaries:
"What does this mean for Penn State? It means throw out all the stops. Don't kick FGs on 4th and short inside the 30. Break out the WR/RB pass plays. Let Hackenberg air it out downfield as often as he would like. Let the defense blitz the hell out of (the QB)... Don't call the safe plays... Make a big play early. Coach to win, instead of coaching to not lose."
Pretty much nailed it right there.
The Prediction
Penn State opened as a mere 1.5 point underdog, which seemed incredibly low against a team that just knocked off the reigning National Champs. That line has since moved to 10.5 points, which is a much more reasonable spread. Hackenberg has an OK day, throwing for around 150 yds and even manages a TD to Chris Godwin. Saquon Barkley, however, struggles to hit 100 yds and doesn't score at all. A trick play provides the other TD, while Tyler Davis hits a FG. The defense comes out strong for their Seniors like Zettel and Nassib. Marcus Allen leads the team in tackles, Jason Cabinda gets a fumble recovery, and Grant Haley even grabs an interception. We'll pull off a couple of nice plays, most likely passes. That will lead to the few aforementioned points, but nowhere near enough to keep up with Dantonio's squad. As has been the case all season long, offensive ineptitude will put the defense in bad spots and they will give up more TDs than their talent would suggest. I'm going to call this one a Spartan victory, 31-17. Penn State ends the regular season with a 7-5 record and prepares for a mid-level bowl game.
Alright, that will do it for tonight. Be sure to check back on Monday for my last weekly wrap up of the regular season. In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!
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