Week 10 Prediction

People are finally starting to notice Penn State (especially at 4-1 in conference play), and the boys in blue are creeping their way closer and closer to the rankings.  They'll have a great opportunity this week to get a quality win on the road as they travel to Evanston, IL to take on the #21 Northwestern Wildcats at Ryan Field.  Things are scheduled to kickoff at noon on ESPNU (or the WatchESPN app).  A win over a ranked team would be the first of the Franklin era and almost certainly result in PSU being ranked themselves for the first time since 2011.  So let's get to the breakdown!

The Good
Pat Fitzgerald's crew is coming off a bye and his teams have traditionally struggled coming out of a week off.  That bodes well for Penn State.  Couple that with the fact that Christian Hackenberg is playing some of his best football right now, the WRs are stepping up, and Saquon Barkley is becoming a household name, and you just might have a winning combination.  Not to mention our defense is still amazing.

Just going by the stats, the big takeaway is that both teams have defenses which are significantly better than either offense.  Then again, Penn State's offense has steadily improved all season long, with bad early numbers skewing the present reality.  Hack & friends are clicking on all cylinders at the moment and look as confident as they may have ever looked.  Meanwhile, Northwestern enters this week's game last in the Big Ten in scoring offense (20.9 points per game) and total offense (331.8 yds per game).  To give you an idea of what they're working with, their best receiving target is a fullback.  In 8 games so far, they have only managed a total of 14 TDs.  For comparison, Christian Hackenberg has 16 TDs by himself (that includes passing, rushing, and receiving).  If trends continue, the key matchup could prove to be the key to a Nittany Lion victory.

Oh, and who knows, we might get Andrew Nelson back at LT!

The Bad
Unlike Penn State (with only 5 seniors starting), Northwestern has 12 seniors playing in a starting capacity.  This veteran presence has played a big part in the overall success of Pat Fitzgerald's squad and it's a stark contrast with the freshmen-heavy roster of PSU.  Look for them to make fewer mistakes, fewer mental errors, and possibly fewer penalties.  That's been their model all year and I wouldn't expect it to change on Saturday.

Northwestern's QB Clayton Thorson is a redshirt freshman, so he's still making freshman mistakes from time to time (that might explain his 52% completions).  He's kind of a mobile QB, carrying the ball 64 times so far this season.  But he rarely takes off on designed runs and he's nowhere near the level of JT Barrett (Ohio State), Zander Diamont (Indiana), or Perry Hills (Maryland).  Regardless, James Franklin has had back ups Trace McSorely and Tommy Stevens (both of whom are much more mobile than Hack) line up against the first string defense at practice this week in order to best simulate this style of offense.  Mobile QBs have been the Achilles heel of this Penn State defense all year; let's hope they've finally figured it out.

But the biggest thing the Lions will likely need to prepare for is that nasty Wildcat defense.  They are led by standout LB Anthony Walker, who sealed Northwestern's win over Penn State last year with a pick-six.  Really though, the whole defense has proven to be dominant.  Not only do they usually shut down the run, but their secondary is borderline elite, and they're getting their interception-leader Matthew Harris back from injury.  Northwestern is one of just six Big Ten teams that is allowing fewer than 20 points per game (17.4), and if you were impressed by Penn State's shut out, well the Wildcats have two already this year.  It will be interesting to see how NW divides their attention.  Maryland and Illinois focused exclusively on the run and got beat over the top.  Could more focus on the aerial attack open up Barkley for a big day?

The Story
The Wildcats are in the same boat as Iowa (albeit with a worse record): they play fundamentally sound team-oriented football, with strong defense, and just enough offense to win.  Their style of play is so incredibly nondescript that before doing my research, I honestly couldn't name one player on their team.  Yes, they're forgettable, but they're still an incredibly tough matchup.  PSU better come prepared or they'll go home very disappointed.

As the only private school in the Big Ten, Northwestern has the highest tuition, the smallest enrollment, the smallest stadium, and (almost every year) the lowest attendance figures.  In his press conference earlier this week, James Franklin eluded to something about Northwestern's "environment" that was making him a little uneasy.  He would not specify as to what exactly it was about Ryan Field that had him nervous, so I'll leave that up to your imagination.  Maybe it's the fact that the game is at noon.  Of course, that means it will actually be 11am at the game site, which is located in the central time zone.  As a result, Penn State's head coach has bumped up nearly all pregame preparations (meetings, walk-throughs, etc) by an hour to compensate for any biological clock issues.

The Prediction
The numbers are kind of all over the place for this one, but suffice it to say this is expected to be a close game.  I think strictly based on home field advantage (which is usually good for 3 automatic points), Northwestern is favored by around 2.5 points.  However, I've seen most commentators saying they think Penn State will cover the spread.  In other words, they expect NW to win, but only by about 1-2 points.  I could see that happening.

In the end, I think this ends up as a low scoring affair.  Hackenberg throws for 200 yds, but only scores once on a deep ball to Chris Godwin.  Freed up by the reduced attention, Barkley has a great day rushing with 150+ and 2 TDs.  Whoever the kicker winds up being makes one and misses one as the special teams woes continue.  On defense, things go the same as they have all year.  Carl Nassib gets 2 sacks, Jason Cabinda leads the team in tackles, and Grant Haley gets an interception.  Ho hum, it's almost boring how ridiculously good these guys are at this point.  It's not a shut out, though, and Clayton Thorson gets more than a few plays off to keep it extremely close.  But Penn State pulls out a squeaker.  What I thought was a surefire loss most of the season, I'm now calling a 24-21 victory.

That will do it for tonight.  Be sure to check back in on Monday for the weekly wrap up.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!