I really don't like noon games
*calms down*
Anyway, as I was saying, it's once again time to take on the Michigan Wolverines in this year's Whiteout game, which also serves as Senior Day. It's a trifecta of fun! First year head man Jim Harbaugh brings the #12 team in the country into Beaver Stadium on what should be a very celebratory day. This year we honor a special Senior class who represent the last players to ever play for Joe Paterno, and the last remnants of a 2011 team that played through the most notorious scandal in college football history. Of all the players on that team, this class would have been the easiest to forgive for jumping ship. Yet nearly all of them stayed true to Penn State. It's not a big group, but they got the job done. Thank you Seniors!!! Special thanks to Kyle Carter, Austin Johnson, Ben Kline, Jordan Lucas, Angelo Mangiro, Trevor Williams, Matt Zanelatto, and of course, Anthony Zettel!
As for the game, it's shaping up to be a low scoring affair in a battle of mediocre offenses vs exceptional defenses. Let's get to the breakdown!
The Good
Well, at least we have home field advantage! I'm not just saying that either. Penn State has won their last 3 home games against the Wolverines, often in front of a Whiteout crowd. I also think Michigan will be looking ahead to their real rivals, Ohio State, next week. This is what we in the business call a "let down look ahead" or a "trap" game, and it happens all the time in college. Whiteout games are magical and strange things have been known to happen. Fingers crossed that magic continues on Saturday.
Last week against Indiana the Wolverines gave up 238 yds on 35 attempts to RB Jordan Howard, proving that you can run on this defense. Saquon Barkley, as we all know by now, is an absolute beast and I look for him to have an equally impressive day. Big time players make big time plays in big time games. I'm already convinced that Barkley is a big time player; so you do the math.
I'll say it again, our defense is designed to stop pro style offenses, and this is about as pro style as it gets (I recall that Harbaugh guy spending some time in the NFL). It's quite realistic to expect a performance out of our guys more along the lines of the Rutgers or Illinois games rather than Temple or Ohio State. The line will get pressure all afternoon and if guys like Grant Haley and Marcus Allen can pick a few lobbed passes out of the air, momentum will do the rest. Now I'll admit that for as good as our defense is, Michigan is better (arguably, much better). But the one area where our defense holds a decided advantage is turnovers. A few of those, plus protecting the football on offense, could serve as the key to this game and equal a Nittany Lion victory!
The Bad
Michigan is currently ranked #12 in the College Football Playoff rankings, and there's a reason for that. Former coach Brady Hoke couldn't coach very well, but he could sure recruit and let's just say the cupboards weren't bare when Harbaugh arrived on campus. Mix that in with ol' Jimmy's coaching acumen and you've got yourselves a winning program. Unfortunately we have to play them every year... including at noon tomorrow.
The Nittany Lions, who are coming off their much deserved bye week, are actually 0-4 coming off bye weeks since the start of the 2013 season. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance yeah yeah yeah, but damn, that doesn't leave me confident.
As for personnel, offensively the biggest name to watch out for is Jake Butt, a talented WR/TE who leads the team in reception yds and is a threat from pretty much anywhere on the field. He's a big body that can bowl over many of your second level defenders. Next to him is the speedy De'Veon Smith at RB, who will hopefully struggle against a dominant PSU defensive front. The more talented backs on Penn State's schedule were able to have success this year. Hopefully Smith isn't one of them.
The strength of Michigan's stellar defense is their secondary. They have the ability to shut down even the most talented WR corps, enabling them to stuff the box against the run (aka Saquon Barkley). Led by Jourdan Lewis and stud recruit Jabrill Peppers, they're possibly the best defensive backfield in the conference. Oh, and Peppers is also a dangerous return man who can take it to the house if the coverage teams aren't paying attention.
Speaking of special teams, Penn State hasn't been great on kick off coverages. Michigan has been great at kick off returns (re: Peppers). We're also bad at coverting 3rd downs, while they're good at stopping them. This leads to lots of punting, something we're been known to suck at. Still, if things bounce the Lions' way in these two areas, expect a possible upset. If they bounce the other way, though, the score could get ugly in a hurry.
The last time these teams played each other in Beaver Stadium it was an instant classic 4OT thriller (that I watched on a TV in the parking lot because I couldn't get a ticket). Like the 2005 Ohio State game, that matchup will go down in Penn State history. So let us now take a second and recall fondly: the catch. Here's to another instant classic tomorrow.
This dude is killing it in Jacksonville btw
Michigan QB Jake Rudock is actually a transfer from Iowa, which is incredibly rare in college football. Usually, coaches have immense sway over where and even IF their players can transfer. A ban from transferring to another school in your conference is basically an unspoken rule. And yet, here we are. Honestly, it's worked out for both teams as Iowa is currently 10-0 without Rudock and Michigan has managed to get 2,220 yds passing out of him, along with an 8-2 record.
But the real story is Jim Harbaugh. In a surprising move, he became one of the only successful NFL coaches in history to make the switch "down" to the college level (usually it's the other way around or bad NFL coaches come to college). After coaching in a Superbowl, he returned to his alma mater and turned a 5-7 (3-5 Big Ten) squad into the country's #12 team in less than one season. Harbaugh is an evil football genius, and his battles with James Franklin, Urban Meyer, and Mark Dantonio in the Big Ten East Division should provide some very entertaining football for years to come. This could be the start of a beautiful hatred.
The Prediction
Penn State comes in a mere 3.5 point underdog. I think that's more a reflection of the low score people are expecting and less about the perceived talent gap between the two teams (most people think Michigan has significantly more talent). I think Hackenberg plays inspired and throws for 150 yds and a TD (which is actually really good against this Michigan secondary). But it's Saquon Barkley that puts up the big numbers. I'm calling it right now, he goes for 200 yds and a TD! On the other side of the ball, Carl Nassib keeps the streak alive and adds another sack to his total while Austin Johnson forces a fumble that's recovered by Anthony Zettel. Regrettably, S Jordan Lucas is injured, but fellow Senior Trevor Williams gets an interception for his fallen teammate. However, despite all of this, it's not enough to beat the superior team. Michigan breaks everyone's heart in a close one. Final score, 17 - 21
Alright, that will do it for tonight. Sorry this got out late, my new work schedule is brutal. Check back on Saturday night for a special piece on Christian Hackenberg, then stop by on Monday night for the weekly wrap up. In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!
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