Friday, September 4, 2015

Week 1 Prediction

I thought this day would never come, and yet, it's FINALLY here!!!  The 2015 college football season is upon us and it's once again time to talk about all things Penn State football!  It's hard to be a fan of the sport with the longest offseason.  Thankfully, the wait is over.  And what better way to open things up than with a "rivalry" game?  Like many Big Ten teams, the Nittany Lions will begin the season on the road... although they aren't traveling far.  Instead, they'll make the relatively brief trip down my way to take on the Temple Owls at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.  The game will be broadcast on ESPN and is scheduled to kick off at 3:30, which should give all the tailgaters plenty of time to get nice and... lubricated.  The game will be considered a road game for Penn State, but only in the most technical sense.  I expect the fans in attendance to split roughly 60/40 in favor of the "away" team, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see those numbers skew in either direction thanks to some shady ticketing practices by Temple.  Alright, enough of the stalling, let's get to the very first breakdown of the season!

Hopefully we don't hear this noise very often

The Good
Well, it's Temple.  I'll go into this more down in the The Story section, but let's just say that history is definitely on our side in this one.  The simple facts are that Temple doesn't have the name recognition, the resources, the facilities, the fan support, the coaching, or the player talent to compete with Penn State in any given year.  What they do have is a solid program that provides a nice challenge to start the season with relatively low risk of a loss.  Yes, we're going to win and I'm quite confident about that.  Still, many places have us on upset alert, so I'll try not to get too cocky.  It's more a matter of being optimistic about Penn State than pessimistic about Temple, and here's why.  Being the first game of the year, it's hard to really predict where things have improved and by how much.  I would be shocked, however, if the offensive line didn't improve with four starters back and an influx of young talent.  This should have a ripple effect through essentially every other unit on that side of the ball.  This season has an eerily similar feel to 2005 where the defense was already set and a jump in offensive productivity allowed Penn State to shoot up the polls and back into the national spotlight.  Will we go undefeated?  No.  But we're going to make some noise, and Temple is just the first stepping stone.

As for their personnel, P. J. Walker is Temple's do-it-all running QB.  He's a veteran now so he should throw the ball better than last year's 13 TDs to 15 INTs would indicate he's capable of.  But if he thinks he'll be able to run the ball effectively against this Nittany Lion rush defense, he has another thing coming.  To be frank, there's nothing about this offense that scares me, especially with our guys standing in front of them.

The Bad
One thing the Owls do have going for them is that they're very experienced, bringing back 19 starters and probably one of the top defenses Penn State will see all year.  They're particularly strong up front.  In other words, Herb Hand's "Lions of Scrimmage" better come out of the gates hard or Christian Hackenberg could be having flashbacks of last season.  Still, as Black Shoe Diaries points out, Penn State's power run game should be able to utilize their decided size advantage, especially on the outside, to punch it right up Temple's collective gut and keep Hack's jersey clean.  However, if Juco transfer Paris Palmer (who was listed as the starting LT on the latest depth chart) is as tentative in his play as earlier reports would suggest, that size advantage could be rendered meaningless.  Senior Temple LB Tyler Matakevich was a 1st team all-conference selection after an impressive 2014 season that saw him record more than 100 tackles.  He's part of a stout front seven that should test the Penn State rushing attack early and often.

Hackenberg's recruiting classmate, TE Adam Breneman is not listed on the depth chart due to a lingering injury.  That still leaves the TE group with a trio of talented options in Mike Gesicki, Kyle Carter, and Brent Wilkerson; but Breneman's playmaking ability will be sorely missed.  Luckily, that seems to be the only real news on the injury front.

The Story
Although the Penn State vs Pitt rivalry (which is enshrined in the college football Hall of Fame) has received most of the press over the years due to the national profile of both teams, there is actually a third D-I team in Pennsylvania.  Temple (a program with so little identity that they've bounced around between three difference conferences in less than 10 years) has played Penn State a whopping 43 times in the past 83 years, while compiling a dismal 3-39-1 record and losing the last 31 straight (the two teams tied in 1950).  There is, after all, a good reason I've often referred to the Owls as Penn State's "little brother."  On the other hand, and largely under the direction of former Penn Staters (like current head coach Matt Rhule), the plucky program from North Philly has slowly gained some respect in recent years and established themselves as a formidable mid-tier program.  Keeping things in perspective, though, they haven't managed to get over the PSU hump and notch a victory against Big Brother since WWII.

The Prediction
Let's start with the easy part.  Penn State's defense is incredible.  They will do their thing and limit Temple's offense to a bare minimum of points.  I won't go as far as to call for a shut out, but it could be close to that.  Marcus Allen leads all tacklers from the safety spot, while his counterpart and team captain, Jordan Lucas snags an interception.  Anthony Zettel and Austin Johnson each record a sack, and one of the LBs manages to scoop up a fumble.  Now the tricky part... it might take until half time for the offense to find a rhythm, so if they look a little lost in the first half try not to worry.  After some locker room adjustments, Hackenberg & Co come out firing.  Daesean Hamilton leads all receivers, but Chris Godwin has the most yds and scores a TD.  We also finally get to see DeAndre Thompkins in action and he does not disappoint, scoring in his very first game.  Akeel Lynch breaks the 100 yd mark as the new featured back and scores his first TD of the season, plus we get to see freshman sensation Saquon Barkley in back up duty.  New kicker Joey Julius waddles his hefty frame out and makes 2 entertaining FGs, helping everyone forget about Sam Ficken (although we all still love you Ficken!).  Overall, things stay closer than most PSU fans would like until the end, but the Lions manage to pull out a hard fought win to start the season.  Final score: 27-13.

As a side season-long prediction, I'd just like to say that everyone needs to become familiar with safety Marcus Allen.  Every video or picture I see coming from the program has him front and center.  Whether it's during a game, at practice, or just hanging around the Lasch Building, he always seems super hyped-up, animated, and camera-ready.  Oh, and did I mention the kid can straight up BALL!  As a true freshman last year, he came in to replace the injured Ryan Keiser and outpaced everyone on the team except Mike Hull in tackles.  The same way fans have gravitated towards charismatic players in recent years like Michael Robinson, Matt McGloin, Mike Mauti, John Urschel, and Anthony Zettel, I predict that they'll flock to Marcus Allen by season's end.  Mark my words!

So let the games begin!  Seriously, you have no idea how excited I am that football is back!!!  Check back here on Monday for the wrap up.  Head on over to my Facebook page for all the latest Penn State news.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

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