The Good
The Aztecs are no push over, but they sure looked like it last week as they fell to the South Alabama Jaguars, at home. At 1-2, it's safe to say that this has been a disappointing season so far for San Diego State, and it's probably also safe to say they aren't much looking forward to their long flight out to the east coast. In all likelihood they're going to dislike their flight home even worse.
Personnel-wise, RB Donnel Pumphrey is the star to watch out for. He had a really good season last year, rushing for over 1,800 yds, but he hasn't really impressed so far this year. Also, considering their QB Maxwell Smith is only completing 47 percent of his passes, things don't look good for the SDSU offense as a whole, especially against Bob Shoop's defense. Smith originally played for Kentucky but transferred after not getting enough playing time (or not playing very well). There were high hopes for a guy coming from the SEC, but the results just haven't materialized yet.
Looking inward, although PSU's passing game continues to look anemic, the truth is they've just been taking what defenses are giving them. As Black Shoe Diaries points out, Hack has been making good reads at the line of scrimmage and calling audibles into better plays. So on more than a few designed pass plays, Hackenberg was "checking into" a run and weakening his own stats for the sake of the team (Yea team!). Coach Franklin explained the specifics after practice this week. It definitely worked against Rutgers, and once opponents being to respect the run, it will open up the passing game for those shots down field we've all been craving.
Oh, and are you still doubting that the offensive line is improving? They allowed zero sacks in consecutive games for the first time since 2010 and had 300+ yds rushing in a single game for the first time since 2009. So yeah, I'd say they're improving. Now the question is, can they keep it up?
The Bad
Nobody really scares me on the San Diego State offense. As I said, they have a decent RB, but one good player is easy to shut down. The one player Penn State might need to watch out for, though, is LB Calvin Munson on defense. He leads the team in most statistical categories and has already returned 2 interceptions for TDs.
The worst thing about this matchup is that we might have to wait another week for those aforementioned shots down field. San Diego State employs a "chaos defense," according to James Franklin, where defenders often walk around pre-snap instead of getting set in order to confuse the opposing QB and make it hard for the offense to tell where blitzes are coming from. In the opening loss to Temple, Penn State's offensive line proved they have difficulty picking up blitzes, leading to their horrific 10 sack performance. Additionally, the Aztecs use a 3-3-5 base defense (with only 3 defensive linemen, but 5 defensive backs). This puts pressure on the WRs and results in a lot of interceptions. It's not necessarily hard on the QB, however, which may explain SDSU being one of the worst teams in the country at getting sacks. Will this be Hackenberg's coming out party, or an interceptionfest? Will we see big passing plays in addition to big running plays? Will the shirtless, live action Aztec mascot make the Nittany Lion uncomfortable? All of these answers and plenty more, this week on As the Ball Spirals.
I've been told ladies tend to be fans of this guy
The Story
This is actually the first time in history that these teams have squared off. The funny thing is, I actually like the Mountain West Conference, and San Diego State in particular, so I'm not really rooting against them, just for Penn State. They've been a good team in recent years and have owned their hometown bowl game, which has the longest name of any bowl to my knowledge: The San Diego Country Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl... yep.
Rocky Long is the head coach of San Diego State. He's got a really cool name...
He was on the staff back when Brady Hoke was the head coach at SDSU. When Hoke left to coach his alma mater, Michigan, Long got the job. Since then, he's made 4 straight bowl games and won a Mountain West Conference Championship for the first time in school history! Otherwise, there aren't a ton of storylines in this one.
The Prediction
Alright, now the fun part. Everyone is calling for a blowout, and honestly, I think I'll join the crowd. Even if the wacky defensive scheme confuses our offense for a little bit, there's no confusing Saquon Barkley who will once again have an enormous game. I'm calling for him to go over 200 yds and score at least 2 TDs. Hackenberg also throws for 200 yds and 2 TDs, most likely to Chris Godwin and Daesean Hamilton, but he also throws 2 INTs to a loaded secondary. We get to see backup Trace McSorely for the second time this year sometime in the 4th quarter as the Lions start to pull away. Defensively, it could get ugly. These guys are playing at an elite level right now against anything but elite competition. I don't think I'm going to try to guess actual numbers here, but rest assured there will be plenty of sacks, fumbles, interceptions, and general havoc. A late score in garbage time ruins the shutout, though. Penn State continues building positive momentum with a decisive 34-7 victory.
That will do it for today. Hope everyone enjoys the game tomorrow! I should have my Wrap Up post done by Monday. In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or a share. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!
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