Friday, September 18, 2015

Week 3 Prediction

The Nittany Lions are still reeling a little after a stunning loss to Temple in Week 1 and a string of key injuries in Week 2 that depleted an already thin roster... but that's absolutely nothing compared to the terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week that the "State University of New Jersey" is currently experiencing.  Yes, poor Rutgers is having one of the worst weeks ever for a college football team (and trust me, Penn Staters know about rough weeks).  However, no amount of bad news is going to stop the much anticipated start of the Big Ten conference schedule in front of the first ever, full-stadium Stripe Out.  Don't know what a Stripe Out is?  Here's a photoshopped image to give you an idea of what it should look like on TV:


Pretty cool, huh?  Things kick off between Penn State and the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers at 8pm this Saturday night on the Big Ten Network.  This will be a homecoming of sorts for a surprising number of PSU players who hail from the Garden State, and I'm sure they're all looking forward to taking on "New Jersey's one true team."  Here's a list of the prominent PSU players from New Jersey:

LB: Brandon Bell, Jason Cabinda, Manny Bowen
WR: Saeed Blacknall, Irvin Charles, Juwan Johnson
TE: Mike Gesicki
DL: Austin Johnson, Garrett Sickels, Antoine White
OL: Angelo Mangiro, Brandon Mahon, Wendy Laurent, Steven Gonzalez
CB: John Reid
P: Chris Gulla

I'm sure each of those guys will know at least one player on the opposite sideline and they're probably all looking forward to a win over their home state team.  There's a lot to talk about with this one, so let's jump straight into this week's breakdown!

The Good
Let's start off with the fact that the game is at home this year.  Rutgers put on quite a show for the cameras last year in their first ever Big Ten game (despite losing).  Now they step into the proverbial hornet's nest that is Beaver Stadium under the lights.  The fans should be jacked up and ready to affect each and every snap, especially after hours of tailgating.  So put on your big boy pants Rutgers, because it's time to play some real football!

Last week, while the Lions were slogging through the mud against Buffalo, Rutgers was busy losing to a pretty awful Wazzu team (the nickname for Washington State) who got beat at home by an FCS school the week before.  Head coach Mike Leach's potent aerial attack proved too much and I'm sure James Franklin is salivating at the chance to unleash Hackenberg on a decimated Rutgers secondary.  Long time starting QB Gary Nova is gone, and according to head coach Kyle Flood, Chris Laviano will get the start against the Nittany Lions.  It will be Laviano's 2nd collegiate start ever.  Last week, he threw for 204 yds and a TD, which is fine, but he also had 2 turnovers that cost the Scarlet Knights 10 points and arguably the win.  He'll need to clean things up if the Knights have any chance of winning.

Now, we'll get to this more in the Story section, but 5 Rutgers players have been dismissed from the team following their arrests for a string of criminal offenses.  Among them are 3 defensive backs.  In terms of game planning this week, expect the staff to take advantage of this with a lot more passing plays than we saw against Buffalo.  Additionally, Rutgers WR Leonte Carroo, possibly their best player, has been kicked off the team for an apparent assault involving his ex-girlfriend that led to criminal charges.  Athlete Janorian Grant, who usually lines up at WR, looks to be the most likely option to replace Carroo's productivity.  And if all of that still wasn't bad enough, head coach Kyle Flood has been fined $50,000 and suspended for 3 games for inappropriate contact with a professor to try and influence a player's grade.  Oh, and Rutger's best defensive player, DL Darius Hamilton, who harassed Hackenberg all game last year, is out with an injury.  I know it's weird to see all of this in "the Good" section of my breakdown, but all these distractions can only help Penn State's chances of winning, so this is where I put them.  Deal with it.

The Bad
First of all, I just checked and John Donovan is still our Offensive Coordinator.  As long as that is the case, Penn State will be at a severe disadvantage against most teams on the schedule.  This will unfortunately remain the case until I see something resembling a competent offense on the field.  Sorry coach, get better.

Additionally, many PSU players are still out with injuries, although James Franklin said at his weekly press conference that he's hopeful about the return of starters OL Andrew Nelson, CB Grant Haley, and LB Brandon Bell.  Franklin gave the classic politician's response, saying he'll rely on the trainers advice to determine if any or all of those guys will play.  Grant Haley will be particularly helpful on punt coverage.  He served as a "gunner" last year, getting downfield on returns and leveling big hits.  We'll need that because despite PSU being the second-best kickoff return team in the Big Ten, Rutgers is #1.  They average an impressive 31.2 yds/return and have already taken two to the house.  How well the coverage teams play will go a long way in determining the final result of this contest.

The Story
Normally, here is where I would talk about how Rutgers wants to be our rival.  I would say that they put on a good show last year at their home stadium and almost beat us.  We would discuss how their fans were huge jerks to our fans (man were they jerks!), how this year we get them at home, and how we're constantly fighting with each other for the same recruits.  These are all interesting story lines... but we're not going to talk about any of them here today.  Instead, we're going to delve into the dumpster fire which the Scarlet Knights seem to have found themselves in off the field.  If, like me, you couldn't keep up with all the bad press coming out of Piscataway lately, please allow ESPN to fill you in with this handy timeline they created (although, it's already out of date since its publication).  Onward State has also compiled a brief summary of Rutger's recent criminal history for all your Schadenfreude needs.  As I alluded to earlier, in addition to all the players being suspended and dismissed, head coach Kyle Flood has been suspended for 3 games including this week.

Unlike Penn State's own recent off-field issues, these issues are all internal and self-inflicted.  This doesn't involve former coaches and university administration, these issues directly involve current coaches and current players behaving badly.  That's why it's hard to imagine this Rutgers team "circling the wagons" the way Penn State's 2012 team did, at least not enough to go into a hostile environment and pull off the upset.  On the other hand, this is college football and strange things happen all the time.

The Prediction
Penn State is actually favored to win by 10 points.  ESPN's Big Ten bloggers unanimously predicted a Nittany Lion win, which is good, but most analysts are in agreement that we won't cover the spread.  Despite the win over Buffalo, I think most Penn State fans have pumped the breaks on all those preseason expectations now that we've actually seen our offense play.  If it weren't for all the turmoil going on at Rutgers I would probably pencil this in as a loss.  However, combining the off-field distractions, their loss to a very bad Wazzu team, and the fact that the game is in Beaver Stadium at night, I'm going to say this is a win.  It's going to be close, though, so don't get too giddy.

So far this year I've incorrectly predicted big things for Hackenberg.  This week, I'm taking the opposite approach in the hopes he'll continue proving me wrong.  Therefore, I'm calling for a terrible night as Hack throws for 100 yds or less with more INTs than TDs.  Your move buddy.  As for the other players, I foresee TDs for Chris Godwin, Akeel Lynch, and Saquon Barkley.  Defensively, this is the week the world once again recognizes the dominance of this group.  The crowd helps get into the collective head of Rutger's offense, and the entire Penn State defense goes into Beast Mode.  Austin Johnson leads the team in tackles while every member of the starting defensive line records at least 1 sack.  Grant Haley and Brandon Bell both return from injuries to pick off passes, and Troy Reeder get a fumble recovery.  The sounds of Zombie Nation wash over Happy Valley all night long.  Penn State wins and hits the spread directly on the nose.  They move to 1-0 in conference play with a final score: 27-17.

Alright, that will do it for today's post.  Enjoy the extra tailgating time tomorrow night.  Hopefully no more Rutgers players get arrested between now and kick off.  In the meantime, keep up with all things Penn State football over on my Facebook page.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

No comments:

Post a Comment