Gator Bowl Grades

It was not the way any Penn State fan wanted to end the 2015 season, and I can guarantee it's not the way Christian Hackenberg wanted to end his career.  But the sad truth is, the Nittany Lions lost their last 4 games, including the Gator Bowl to the Georgia Bulldogs.  They finish with a record of 7-6 for the second year in a row under James Franklin.  Hackenberg was knocked out of the game in the 2nd quarter with an injury to his throwing shoulder and would eventually declare for the NFL draft during his post game interviews.  Now, we look towards a hopefully bright 2016, with a full compliment of scholarships, a new Offensive Coordinator, and the infamous "quarterback battle/controversy."  But first, we say good bye to 2015, and for the last time this season, let's roll out some grades!

Offense
QB: (Incomplete) Coming into this game, Georgia's pass defense was considered to be the best in the country (at least statistically), and yet Christian Hackenberg torched them early on.  At one point, he had 3 consecutive 1st downs to 3 different WRs!  Then he got hurt and his backup, Trace McSorely (known more for his running abilities than his powerful arm), stepped in and until the 4th quarter he looked like a redshirt freshman playing his first meaningful collegiate snaps against said pass defense.  McSorely found a rhythm in the 4th quarter though, finishing the game 14 of 27 for 142 yds and 2 TDs, managing to put 14 points on the board while putting a scare into the mighty Bulldogs.  It's unfair to judge either QB's performance really, so let's just say I wish Hack luck in the NFL, I'm excited about the future of the position, and I'm glad we didn't get blown out like some other Big Ten teams.  Moving on...

OL: (C) They didn't look great, particularly in the run game (more on that in a second), but they managed to keep two different QBs' jerseys clean and not allow a single sack against an impressive Bulldog defensive front.  That counts for something and is a far cry from the 10 sack performance they let up in the season opener vs Temple.  I absolutely love the talent James Franklin has brought in during the past few recruiting cycles, so I'm hoping this group gets a lot better in years to come.

RB: (C-) Yes, I know Saquon Barkley didn't get much help from the O-line, but he didn't get help all year and managed to put up a lot better numbers than he did against Georgia.  The coaching staff would eventually try other options as the game went on, but it just wasn't working.  Strangely, it was the passing game, against the best secondary in the country, that almost got us a win.  And that's all I think really needs to be said.

WR: (A+) Prior to the game, all the focus was on Georgia's top rated pass defense (which I've already mentioned).  All that did was make this unit's performance all the more impressive.  The top three guys put up the following stats: Chris Godwin 6 catches for 133 yds, DaeSean Hamilton 5 catches for 71 yds and a TD, Geno Lewis 3 catches for 53 yds and a TD.  Oh, and NONE of the top 7 (yes, 7!) WRs are graduating.  Whoever wins the QB race is going to have more options than they know what to do with, and that can only help a young gunslinger's confidence.

TE: (F) James Franklin does not know how to use TEs.  It's just that simple.  Maybe with a healthy Adam Breneman this position will get better next year, but I'm starting to doubt that.  Only Kyle Carter recorded a catch, for 3 yds, and he's graduating.  I miss Bill O'Brien and Jesse James...

Defense
DL: (B+) These guys played well overall, as they have throughout the 2015 campaign.  Austin Johnson had 8 tackles, including 2 for a loss and a sack.  Garrett Sickels had 5 tackles, including 1 for a loss.  Anthony Zettel had 4 tackles, including a sack and a pass breakup.  Carl Nassib... did not record a single stat, and honestly, I don't remember him playing except for when he jumped offsides during a FG attempt.  This group will experience a massive exodus and I'm not totally sure what it will look like next year.  Sickels is the only starter to return, but I have faith in "Coach Chaos" to reload and continue the tradition of great defensive lines at Penn State.

LB: (B+) Brandon Bell led the team with 11 tackles.  Jason Cabinda had 8 of his own and finished the year with exactly 100 tackles.  Troy Reeder did not play, but his backup Jake Cooper picked up another 6 tackles.  This unit has been beat up as much as any other on the team.  Like the WR corps, none of them graduate, and Nyeem Wartman-White returns after getting knocked out for the season in the first game of the year.  I expect big things from LinebackerU moving forward, but then again, when don't we?

DB: (A-) Grant Haley had 7 tackles, Malik Golden and Marcus Allen each had 6, while Trevor Williams and John Reid picked up 2 tackles a piece.  Generally, we don't measure the secondary by tackles, though.  Instead, I'll focus on the fact that they held Georgia to only 115 yds passing and in most cases came up with big plays when they needed to.  So overall, a decent effort.  Like Reeder, senior CB Jordan Lucas did not play after getting knocked out for the season earlier in the year.  However, he will represent Penn State at the Senior Bowl in a few months.  Both he and Trevor Williams are graduating, but the influx of talent in recent recruiting classes means this group will most likely get even better and possibly be the strength of the defense moving forward.

Special Teams
K: (A-) Joey Julius focused on kick offs, where he wasn't bad (although he completely botched his onsides kick attempt), while Tyler Davis made his only FG attempt of the day from 34 yds out.  James Franklin recruited the #1 kicker in the country to come to Penn State next year, and he's got plenty of speedy options in the return game.  Special teams shouldn't be a liability for much longer.

P: (A-) Danny Pasquariello had at least one gorgeous punt that landed inside the 5 yd line.  Otherwise, he was fine.  Just like at kicker, we're getting the best recruit in the nation at this position next year, so the future looks incredibly bright.

Finally, my bonus grade today is simply an A+ for Christian Hackenberg.  I've written about him recently, as have countless other talking heads.  Hackenberg saved Penn State, plain and simple.  He singlehandedly made it OK for highly touted players to make their way to Happy Valley, even in spite of the sanctions.  He showed true loyalty, and persevered through seemingly impossible adversity while being viciously and unfairly criticized from all sides and from all corners of the country.  He did not have to do any of that, and yet he did.  Fuck the stats (although he owns like, every school passing record ever), Christian Hackenberg will go down as the unquestioned greatest QB to ever put on the blue and white.  This bonus grade is meaningless, but it's all I can do to say thank you!

Alright, that will do it for today, tomorrow, and well, the entire 2015 season!  As it stands right now, I believe I will officially be ending the blog.  It was a nice 3 year run, but I need to get some other things in order.  However, especially around Signing Day, the NFL Draft, Blue/White, etc I may suddenly have the urge to write again, and who knows, by the start of next season, I might have my personal life figured out enough that I want to start things back up.  So please please please, continue to head on over to my Facebook page (where I will continuing posting content) and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and for possibly the last time ever... GO STATE!!!

PEACE!

Gator Bowl Wrap Up

It was a disappointing end to the 2016 Gator Bowl as the Nittany Lions fell to the Georgia Bulldogs on an overcast afternoon in Jacksonville.  Penn State rallied in the 4th quarter with a backup QB and showed a ton of guts, but the 21 point deficit was too much in the end.  PSU finishes the season 7-6 for the second consecutive time and is now 1-1 in Franklin era bowls.  However, the future looks bright as the team will be back at full strength with regard to scholarships next year and will look to improve thanks to a new Offensive Coordinator and a ton of emerging talent.

But the big story was when star QB Christian Hackenberg injured his throwing shoulder and left in the 2nd quarter.  He would not return.  It was an extremely rare sight for a guy who, despite racking up well over 100 sacks and countless hits, still managed to start all 38 games of his collegiate career (virtually unheard of these days).  Assuming Christian leaves for the NFL draft in a few months, this was his last game in the blue and white.  I'm sure that is not the way he wanted to go out, with an injury and a loss, but hey, maybe he'll feel like he has unfinished business come back!  Regardless, all Penn State fans should be incredibly grateful that a 5-star recruit who could've gone literally anywhere chose to come to Happy Valley and stayed in spite of scandals, sanctions, coaching changes, and bowl bans.  He will leave nearly every school passing record, and he did so in the face of untold adversity, serving as a role model to all of his fellow student athletes.  He was a class act from day one and perfect embodiment of the grand experiment.  Case in point, unlike most early entrants to the draft, Hack already has his degree and is officially an alum.  I wish him nothing but the best and just want to say, thank you Christian Hackenberg for proving yourself among the truest of Nittany Lions!

*Update: Hackenberg will officially enter the 2016 NFL draft, along with DT Austin Johnson*

The game was your classic tale of two halves.  In the first half, Saquon Barkley couldn't get anything going, although the passing game found a rhythm right away.  Hackenberg connected on 3 consecutive 1st down passes to Godwin, Lewis, and Hamilton.  He looked comfortable from the start until a pass hit Barkley right in the hands, only to be deflected into the waiting arms of a Georgia defender.  The Bulldogs capitalized, and got a little bit of luck, hitting a 44 yd FG attempt off the post and in to make it 3-0.

In the 2nd quarter, Hackenberg scrambled, landed awkwardly on his shoulder, and to make matters worse, a large defensive lineman fell on him.  He was slow to get up, but stayed in the game, completing 3 passes to Chris Godwin for 75 yds and getting the Lions down to the 17 yd line, all in spite of his injury.  It was too much though, and eventually Hack would leave the game and head to the locker room.  Trace McSorely took over and a Tyler Davis 34 yarder tied things up.

A 26 yd run by Isaiah McKenzie got UGA into PSU territory, and a 45 yd TD pass gave them a 10-3 lead.  Their next drive was more of the same, ending in another TD and making the score 17-3 going into the half.

By the 3rd quarter, Georgia was on their third kicker due to 2 injuries and their backup punter predictably missed a 48 yd FG attempt.  A few drives later, however, the Bulldogs' Sony Michel made it 21 unanswered points and the score stood at 24-3 as Penn State fans started to lose hope.

Finally, in the 4th quarter, passes to Chris Godwin and Saeed Blacknall got the Nittany Lions into FG range, but just when it looked like we would settle for 3, McSorely fired a strike and hit Geno Lewis in the endzone for Penn State's first TD of the day!  Now it was a much more respectable 24-10.  The next drive was more of the same.  Another 4th down, this time to Lewis continued to breathe life into the PSU bench.  Then, only a few plays later, McSorely found Hamilton in the back of the endzone for the score!

He would eventually get the ball back, down by just 7, with 1:52 left, and no TOs.  Give Christian Hackenberg that scenario and he wins the game.  Give it to Trace McSorely?  Well, at least he made things interesting.  8 seconds was just enough time for a hail mary… but it would fall short, and that would be the end.  Final score, 24-17.  It was the closest I've ever come to feeling like a loss was actually a win.

An interesting observation - it was refreshing to see a competent game plan put in place on offense.  Ricky Rahne didn't call any wacky gimmick plays, he adjusted as the game went on (especially when he had to simplify things for McSorely), and the only time we saw the same play twice was if it worked the first time.  The simple absence of John Donovan made for a noticeable improvement.  I can't wait to see what this team looks like under the direction of new OC Joe Moorhead.

As for McSorely, I honestly didn't think he played well, especially early on.  But nearly every other pundit and observer apparently begs to differ.  They see 14 points on the scoreboard and immediately anoint McSorely as the heir-apparent.  On the other hand, what I saw during the actual game was a young man that looked like a deer in headlights and was clearly in way over his head.  His first instinct on every play was to panic and take off with the ball, a move that inevitably resulted in no gain, or even a loss.  This was even more worrisome when you consider how dramatically smaller he is than your standard QB, and how that smaller frame isn't designed to take all those hits.  Putting yourself in that much danger right after your starter just went down with an injury is plain old stupid.  When he did throw, his wobbly passes either fell short or sailed over his intended target's head.  It took a series of highlight worthy circus catches by the WR corps to bail McSorely out... Then I saw this piece from OnwardState.  Now I'm starting to think that maybe I was a little hard on Trace due to his early struggles, which were understandable from a redshirt freshman coming off the bench in the middle of a high-pressure bowl game and down by 21 points.  He wasn't actually that bad, and I am excited to see him compete with incoming stud Jake Zembiec.  Blue/White weekend will be very interesting this year.

Ok, so how did I do with my prediction?  Well the Trace McSorely-led 4th quarter comeback made that 7 point spread look inspired, didn't it (unlike my score prediction)?  No one saw Hackenberg's injury coming, so everything about him is basically a moot point.  Chris Godwin was the leading WR, though, and boy did he have one heck of a game!  He caught 6 passes for 133 yds!  But he didn't score a TD.  No, for that, we got the law firm of Hamilton and Lewis back together.  The pair combined for 8 catches, 124 yds, and 2 TDs!  Barkley only had 69 yds on 17 carries and was routinely replaced in the second half due to ineffectiveness.  In fact, McSorely was arguably the best rusher of the day with 31 yds on 7 carries, giving him a 4.4 yd average (Barkley averaged 4.1).  So overall, not my best performance.  That will happen with bowl games.

Alright, that will do it for tonight.  Be sure to check back in probably on Wednesday for my bowl grades.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Gator Bowl Prediction

*Quick note to start this post*
For all intents and purposes I consider myself a college football purist.  I love the tradition of the sport and therefore, most of my opinions trend conservative.  That is why I must respectfully refrain from using the name "Taxslayer.com Bowl" for Penn State's game tomorrow.  Instead, I will refer to it by its traditional name, the Gator Bowl.  That is all, now back to your regularly scheduled post.

James Franklin and company have traveled south for the winter and found themselves taking on the Georgia Bulldogs by the sunny beaches of Jacksonville, FL in the 2016 Gator Bowl.  Things kick off at noon tomorrow on ESPN.  This is the second bowl in a row for Penn State, and coach Franklin's fifth in a row going back to his days at Vanderbilt.  He's currently 3-1 and will look to go 4-1 for a very impressive postseason resume.  It's been a while so I'm shaking off the cobwebs.  Let's see how I do with this week's breakdown!

The Good
Georgia's non-conference matchups featured FCS team Southern, Sunbelt teams Louisiana-Monroe and Georgia Southern, and a 3-win Georgia Tech.  Needless to say, not the most impressive slate, even when matched up against Penn State's somewhat weak showing (which now looks much more impressive with the success of Temple).  Their three losses, on the other hand, came to Alabama, Florida, and Tennessee, all of which are very good teams (the Tide will be playing for the National Championship on January 11th).  Still, it's safe to say they were rarely tested this year, so they could be easy to catch off guard.  Aiding in that quest is the fact that the Dawgs will be playing with an interm coach after firing Mark Richt, who immediately found a new home in Miami.  This will actually be the fourth time that Penn State is playing a team who is missing their head coach this season (the others being Illinois, Maryland, and Rutgers).  Georgia's new coach, Kirby Smart, won't join the staff until after he's finished coaching Alabama in the Playoffs.  Instead, WRs coach Bryan McClendon will lead the team.  That's right, not a coordinator because in addition to missing their head man, UGA also lost their Offensive and Defensive coordinators.  Heck, even McClendon is on his way to South Carolina after the season, so who knows where his head is at.  They're also missing a number of players due to injury (like star RB Nick Chubb) and behavior issues.  Frankly, it's a disorganized mess down there right now, and that can only help the Nittany Lions' chances of coming away with a win.

The Bad
I started The Good section talking about Georgia's schedule, so it's only fair to start this section talking about our own.  Penn State's only "good" win this year was over San Diego State, who won 9 games and the Mountain West Conference title.  Otherwise, they beat who they were supposed to beat and lost to who they were supposed to lose to.  Since Georgia is currently favored by the so-called experts, there's plenty of reason to be worried that PSU will play down to the expectations and come out flat, especially considering they're in the middle of a three game losing streak to end the regular season.  How they finish in this bowl game could play a key role in determining how the offseason will go, and consequently next year.

The Bulldogs signal caller is a talented, but unherolded player in Greyson Lambert.  He's completed 64.4% of his passes for 1,844 yds and 11 TDs.  When given time, he can pick people apart and set up the rest of Georgia's traditionally run-heavy offensive attack.  And he usually has time behind his talented offensive line that has only given up 9 total sacks this season.  Still, Lambert is a traditional pocket passer, which bodes well for the pressure style of defense Bob Shoop likes to employ.

On defense, UGA defends against the pass better than just about anyone, allowing just 146.1 yds per game through the air.  I'll be interesting to see how Hackenberg and the "flight squad" handle a stout back seven featuring safety Dominick Sanders, and LBs like Jake Ganus, Tim Kimbrough, and Leonard Floyd.  I'm tempted to say this will be one of the best defenses Penn State will play this season, but they also played Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, and Ohio State... so yeah, they've been here before.  All of those games ended in losses, so you can do the math.

The Story
Well, the big story is that these two "blue blood" programs have only ever met once before, in the 1983 Sugar Bowl, where Joe Paterno and his QB Todd Blackledge led Penn State to their first ever National Championship.  Although it may have taken that long to get a title, bowl games are a different story.  The Nittany Lions are actually tied for 3rd all-time in bowl wins, with an overall record of 28-15-2.  24 of those wins came under Joe Paterno, who not only coached his Lions to more postseason victories than anyone in college football history, but also more bowl wins than all but 8 entire schools!

Joe Paterno after winning his first National Championship

This is the first SEC opponent James Franklin will face since coaching in the SEC with Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are in the same division as Georgia so Franklin had to face them all three years he was in Nashville.  We'll have to wait and see if that familiarity pays off.  Speaking of familiarity, Georgia actually plays Florida every year in "the world's largest outdoor cocktail party," a game played at this very stadium in Jacksonville.  They played here just a few weeks ago, so they definitely know the layout.  However, keep in mind that the Jacksonville Jaguars currently have more former Nittany Lions on their roster than any other NFL team.  And it just so happens that this game will be played in their home stadium.  At least three of them took time out of their schedules to hang out with the current squad at a lunchin as part of the bowl game festivities.  Maybe their mojo will rub off and give the team a kind of karmic home field advantage.

The Prediction
Penn State opens as 7.5 point underdogs.  I don't get it.  We have no idea what Georgia's coaching staff will even look like and they're still favored?  Whatever Vegas.  The Nittany Lions are rested and healed up after a few weeks off.  In all the pictures and videos I've seen of them at the bowl site, they've looked ready and confident.  I honestly think we have a strong chance to win this one.  This will likely be Christian Hackenberg's last game in the blue and white, and he's made it a point over his career to save his best for last (against Wisconsin and Boston College).  I think he'll throw for just under 200 yds, with Chris Godwin as the leading WR.  Saquon Barkley looks to be at 100% and he should have a monster day, going for over 150 yds and at least 1 TD.  A healthy defensive line dominates the Bulldog front and harasses their QB all afternoon.  They're a talented team, so they'll get their shots in, but in the end, I think Penn State takes this one 20-13.  All hail your new Gator Bowl Champions!

*Another quick side note*
Carl Nassib will officially join Jordan Lucas in the Senior Bowl, college football's premier post season all-star game.  Congrats to both men on this prestigious invite!

Ok, I think that will do it for tonight.  Check back on Monday for my Bowl wrap up.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

December News and Notes

Welcome back everyone!  With the regular season now officially over, it's time to get updated with everything that's going on in the world of Penn State football heading into the postseason.  We'll start with what I consider to be the biggest news.  Right after the Michigan State game, it was announced that much maligned Offensive Coordinator John Donovan had been relieved of his duties.  Since then, a search was conducted and concluded with the hiring of Joe Moorhead, the former head coach of FCS Fordham.  I actually really like this hire.  Moorhead is a Pennsylvania guy who took an 1-11 team and has averaged double-digit wins in the past 3 years along with winning multiple conference titles.  And he's done it all with a solid offensive system that *gasp* adjusts to the players he has instead of trying to fit square pegs into round holes.  Here's a little bit more from his introductory press conference.

I think you know what the other big story is... it's the most wonderful time of the year!  No, not Christmas, Bowl Season!  This year the Nittany Lions will face off against the Georgia Bulldogs in the Taxslayer.com Bowl (formerly the Gator Bowl) in Jacksonville, FL on January 2nd.  Generally, I think this worked out quite well considering Georgia is a better matchup than LSU, and I personally think Jacksonville is a better venue than Nashville (I mean, their stadium has a freakin pool!).  This will be the first time since the 1983 Sugar Bowl that these teams have faced off, and the second time ever.  You might remember that particular game gave Joe Paterno his first National Championship.  Onward State did a brief history of the now infamous game if you're interested.  We'll get more into this year's rendition closer to New Year's.

In the meantime, a slew of other bowl games will kick off this Saturday, December 19th.  I know it's a short notice, but if you have the time and an ESPN account (they're free), head on over and join this year's Prime Pick Em Challenge!  Now, if you've paid attention to this blog the last two years, you'll know that one of my favorite things about bowl season is seeing the list of swag bags handed out to the participating teams.  Sure enough, Sports Business Daily compiled this year's list and I'm already super jealous.  It looks like Penn State's players will get a Panasonic gift suite and a fossil watch, not bad.

The postseason isn't just bowl season, though, it's also awards season!  This year's big winner was, surprise surprise, Carl Nassib.  The former walk-on was this season's feel good story as he skyrocketed into the headlines with big hits and a record breaking sack total.  As it stands right now, Nassib has officially won 3 major national awards: the Hendricks Award (given to the nation's top DE), the Rotary Lombardi Award (given to the nation's top lineman or LB), and the Lott IMPACT Trophy (given to the defensive IMPACT player of the year).  Additionally Nassib has been named a First Team All-American by the Associated Press, SI.com, ESPN.com, Walter Camp, CBS Sports, FWAA, and AFCA.  He was also a Second Team selection by USA Today.  Speaking of USA Today, they named RB Saquon Barkley to their All-Freshman Team.  Similarly, ESPN.com and the Sporting News named Barkley a Freshman All-American.  So a big CONGRATULATIONS to both players for all their success!

As long as we're on the subject of congratulating players, I'll send another big one out to Jordan Lucas for his selection to the Senior Bowl.  This is arguably the top postseason All-Star game where NFL prospects showcase themselves for scouts.  I'm sure a few more Nittany Lions will be invited to these types of games, so we'll discuss that more when it happens.

Today's final bit of news surrounds the ever "polarizing" Christian Hackenberg.  It appears that ESPN's resident draft expert, Todd McShay, thinks that the Junior signal-caller would benefit from another year in school, but that he'll probably choose to turn pro... turns out ESPN analyst (and former Washington QB) Brock Huard agrees with that assessment.

Alright, that will do it for today.  Since I, like most people, have off on New Year's Day, and I'll be spending the bulk of it watching football, I think that's when I'll write and post my Bowl prediction.  So check back then.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Week 12 Wrap Up

It was another nasty loss, this time to the #5 team in the nation.  Penn State now finishes with a 7-5 record (4-4 in Big Ten), a spot in a lower tier bowl, and the Lions have only beaten one team this season with a winning record (San Diego State).  They've also lost control of the state to Temple.  So overall, not great, but we did win one more game than last year, so I guess we're trending upwards?  The talent is there and more is on the way.  I got a little too excited at the beginning of the season and truly believed this was the year we'd break out.  It's now looking more and more like the prognosticators were right, though, and next year might be the year we break out, especially considering...

John Donovan has officially been fired as Offensive Coordinator.  Yes, the man who can almost single-handedly be given credit for Christian Hackenberg's plummeting draft stock is no longer calling plays in Happy Valley.  I doubt you'll find many people outside the Donovan family who are upset with this decision.  I honestly didn't realize until now that he was also the TEs coach (that was one of the worst position groups on the team under Donovan after being one of the strengths under Bill O'Brien).  Black Shoe Diaries put it best, "Franklin has been fairly clear that he prizes loyalty, but he obviously does not place loyalty above doing your job."  I for one, applaud James Franklin for this!  In fact, I'm of the opinion that James Franklin is doing a fine job as head coach, a job that entails making those kinds of tough decisions, delegating responsibilities effectively, and handling recruits/players/administration/alumni.  Franklin has done well in these endeavors and deserves to stay.  The Offensive Coordinator's job, however, is to develop a game plan and handle play calling.  John Donovan was terrible at that, so he had to go.  I think the general consensus of the fans is, good riddance.  And if you don't run in coaching circles (I know I don't), BSD has put together a list of 40 potential candidates.

Now if you want to know what happened in the game you should've watched it.  But if you couldn't (I know, Thanksgiving is a thing) then check out recaps here and here.  Here are my takeaways:

They dominated us on both lines.  Our defensive line couldn't get a push and registered zero sacks without Sickels and Nassib.  Credit their o-line for giving Connor Cook and his WRs all day to pick us apart.  This meant we couldn't blitz as often since so many guys were in coverage trying to stop the bleeding.  Our offensive line was OK in pass protection (Hackenberg's quick passes helped) but couldn't open holes for Barkley.  Next season is year 3 for both James Franklin and supposed o-line guru Herb Hand and it's going to be a big one.  3 years is about all you get in the modern world of college football coaching to prove yourself.  The staff's first impressive batch of highly touted o-line recruits will be redshirt sophomores next year and should be able to begin competing for starting jobs.  The second haul will be redshirt freshman who can serve as reliable backups.  remember that only Angelo Mangiro (and possibly Gaia and Dowry) will be leaving, so there are veterans like Andrew Nelson and Brendon Mahon to anchor the unit.  If they don't improve dramatically, the whole staff will be on the hot seat.

This game was actually closer than the score made it seem, especially at halftime.  Take a look at the 1st half stats:

Hackenberg: 17-27, 166 yds, 1 TD vs Cook: 11-16, 121 yds, 1 TD

Barkley: 10 rushes, 86 yds

Godwin: 8 catches, 85 yds, 1 TD

Total yds: PSU 268 vs MSU 200

Time of Possession: 45 plays (17:41) vs 31 plays (12:19)

However, costly mistakes at all the wrong times doomed the Nittany Lions.  In the 2nd quarter, the offense was driving and Hackenberg delivered a perfect ball to Kyle Carter who proceeded to fumble it.  Michigan State's Demetrius Cox recovered the live ball and wound up on plenty of highlight reels for his spinning TD return.  In the 4th quarter, Penn State managed to get within 18 with a Chris Godwin TD (and failed 2 point conversion) and attempted an onsides kick.  Of course, it was recovered by MSU who only had to drive 44 yds for the score.  Just three plays later, Hackenberg nailed a lineman in the back and the ball bounced right into the hands of Malik McDowell, who took it 13 yds for a score of his own.  But it wasn't over.  Koa Farmer fumbled the ensuing kickoff at the 9, gifting a short field to the Spartans, who decided to let their fucking CENTER, Jack Allen, score the last points of the game.  It was that kind of game.

In college, there are bad teams that you hope to play on Senior Day.  You hope this because you want to be able to put your less talented Seniors in the game towards the end and let them have a little glory.  Penn State, however, should NEVER be considered the type of team you can do this on.  And yet as I mentioned, in the 2nd half, with the game far out of reach, the Spartans put their Senior center in at RB and let him score... scratch that, our guys let him score.  It was embarrassing and I hope we never have to watch something like that again (although congrats to that guy for getting his moment in the spot light).

Coaching!  It's year 2 for James Franklin, it's year 9 for Mark Dantonio, and that made all the difference.  Although there were no end of game mistakes this week, that's only because the game was already so out of hand.  There were more ill-advised timeouts because of miscommunication.  And then there was the situation early in the game, down 6-0, having just watched Penn State drive the length of the field to the 1 yd line, when the staff decided to settle for a FG.  Listen, if you can't make it in fromt he 1, in a game when you're supposed to be pulling out all the stops, just go home.

Chris Godwin and Saquon Barkley will be a lethal yet entertaining duo for years to come, regardless of the QB situation.  With the help of a surprisingly aggressive offensive game plan, Godwin (11 catches, 109 yds, 2 TDs) had his best day ever.  And thanks in large part to a handful of chunk plays, Barkley finished the day with a respectable 17 carries for 110 yds.  He had the tougher hill to climb against a very stout Michigan State front four.  Both are still young, so enjoy this ride while it lasts.

Speaking of Barkley, some of the post season awards have started to trickle out and the star RB was named BTN.com's Freshman of the Year, although he was snubbed for the same award by the Big Ten Conference (it went instead to Michigan's Jabrill Peppers).  The Conference did, however, award Carl Nassib Defensive Player of the Year, as well as name Nassib, Austin Johnson, and Anthony Zettel to the various All-Defensive Teams.  Congrats to all the winners and I'm sure more are on the way!

I did a piece on Christian Hackenberg a few days ago, but I think this one does better justice explaining why every fan should be thankful this young man came to Penn State.  On a somewhat related note, the guy thought to be Hackenberg's successor, (but who transferred last year back to Canada) Michael O'Connor, is doing just fine for himself back in his home country.  It's very interesting to see the paths these two young men have taken and where each has led them respectively.

Alright, that will do it for today.  Check back tomorrow for my last regular season grades post.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Week 12 Prediction

That's right, it's time to play the most contrived and least respected rivalry in college football, with probably the stupidest looking trophy imaginable up for grabs, the Land Grant Trophy.  This game was started because new Big Ten member Penn State needed a rival and Michigan State's primary rival (Michigan) was already taken by Ohio State.  The schools were founded in the same year (1855) and apparently that was good enough to justify an attempt at hating each other.  Penn State will be the away team, sporting their all white uniforms, and the game will kick off at 3:30 on ESPN.

Behold the Land Grant Trophy in all its hideousness

The all-time series is tied up at 14 games a piece.  Michigan State won three of the last five meetings, including the last two in a row.  Under the old Legends/Leaders Divisions, the teams did not play from 2011-2013.  Hence, Penn State hasn't won since 2009 with Darrell Clark at QB... yeah.  Unfortunately, things aren't looking too good for bringing this monstrosity back to State College.  Let's find out why in this week's breakdown!

The Good
Michigan State's star QB (and NFL scouting rival of Christian Hackenberg) Connor Cook is currently suffering from a shoulder injury.  If he remains out for tomorrow's game, either Tyler O'Connor or Damien Terry will share QB duties.  O'Connor is the pure passer, while Terry is more of a duel threat.  Either one of them will have WR Aaron Burbridge to throw to, who leads the team in receptions and TDs.  But without Cook under center, it's safe to say the offense will be a shell of its former self no matter what strategy they employ.  That's good news for our defense.

The one area you could call a weakness for Michigan State's defense is their secondary.  Our passing stats actually line up pretty favorably against them.  If Hack & Co can have a game like they did against Maryland and bomb it all over the field, that might be their best chance to pull the upset, and oh what an upset it would be.

Despite nailing the game winning FG against Ohio State, kicker Michael Geiger is only 9-14 on the year.  If we keep it close, can he be trusted to hit another game winner two weeks in a row?  Hopefully not.

The Bad
Carl Nassib might be hurt and possibly won't play.  He only played one series last week, and without him the defensive production, especially along the line, dropped off in a big way.  If he remains out, I expect more of the same decline.  It's bad enough that Jordan Lucas is out, we can't afford to lose much more senior leadership or breakdowns are inevitable.

Verses the Buckeyes, and absent a potent passing attack with Cook's injur, MSU's RBs Gerald Holmes and L.J. Scott combined for over 200 yds rushing.  If called upon again, they can easily grind out an ugly win.

Defensively, Shilique Calhoun leads the team with 11.5 tackles for a loss and 8.5 sacks.  That's not good news for our offensive line.  In fact, both offenses give up a fair amount of sacks so this could turn into a good ol' fashioned sackfest for both teams!  Hackenberg is used to that, can we honestly say the same thing about the Spartan QBs?  Overall, MSU's defense is good, but not quite great.  I still expect them to be able to shut down this terrible PSU offense, though, and make it hard for both Hackenberg and Saquon Barkley to threaten them in any way.

As a coaching battle, this is the second week in a row that it's not even close.  So far this season Michigan State's Mark Dantonio has managed to out coach Jim Harbaugh AND Urban Meyer, beating both living legends in their home stadiums with arguably inferior talent.  I hate to say it, but James Franklin is no Harbaugh or Meyer.  If it comes down to a chess match of game management, the Nittany Lions are toast.

The Story
Franklin's crew doesn't really have much to play for this week and could come out flat.  About the only thing Penn State can do by winning is cause chaos in the Big Ten/Playoff pictures.  Michigan State, on the other hand, is playing for EVERYTHING!  A few years ago they went 6-6 after losing a number of close games.  Conversely, this season they've found a way to win five out of six games decided by a score or less.  This past week they were the big story in college football when they beat previously undefeated and reigning National Champion Oho State in their own house.  That win provided a major shake up in the national rankings.  Now the Spartans control their own destiny.  Win, and they play Iowa for the Big Ten Championship and an almost guaranteed spot in the playoff.  Lose, and the winner of Michigan vs OSU takes their place in both (which means we'll have an unlikely ally rooting for PSU at the conclusion of that game).  There's no need for Sparty to "wake up" for this one.  Penn State is going to get Michigan State's best shot, and that means it could get ugly fast.  How do we avoid that?  Well, to quote Black Shoe Diaries:

"What does this mean for Penn State?  It means throw out all the stops.  Don't kick FGs on 4th and short inside the 30.  Break out the WR/RB pass plays.  Let Hackenberg air it out downfield as often as he would like.  Let the defense blitz the hell out of (the QB)... Don't call the safe plays... Make a big play early.  Coach to win, instead of coaching to not lose."

Pretty much nailed it right there.

The Prediction
Penn State opened as a mere 1.5 point underdog, which seemed incredibly low against a team that just knocked off the reigning National Champs.  That line has since moved to 10.5 points, which is a much more reasonable spread.  Hackenberg has an OK day, throwing for around 150 yds and even manages a TD to Chris Godwin.  Saquon Barkley, however, struggles to hit 100 yds and doesn't score at all.  A trick play provides the other TD, while Tyler Davis hits a FG.  The defense comes out strong for their Seniors like Zettel and Nassib.  Marcus Allen leads the team in tackles, Jason Cabinda gets a fumble recovery, and Grant Haley even grabs an interception.  We'll pull off a couple of nice plays, most likely passes.  That will lead to the few aforementioned points, but nowhere near enough to keep up with Dantonio's squad.  As has been the case all season long, offensive ineptitude will put the defense in bad spots and they will give up more TDs than their talent would suggest.  I'm going to call this one a Spartan victory, 31-17.  Penn State ends the regular season with a 7-5 record and prepares for a mid-level bowl game.

Alright, that will do it for tonight.  Be sure to check back on Monday for my last weekly wrap up of the regular season.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Week 11 Grades

I will not be doing my usual grades post tonight for a number of reasons.  Chief among them is that personal issues have prevented me from putting in my usual amount of work and research in order to write this post, and I refuse to slop something together just for the hell of it (I have standards dammit!).  So instead, I found a nice grades post for the Michigan game done by Black Shoe Diaries, who always put out quality writing and analysis.  Since much of my grades are determined by the game statistics, I'm also going to leave a link to those here for your viewing pleasure.  And now, a really cool picture of Penn State's football uniforms through the years!

Clean.  Simple.  Classic

Alright, Saturday is the last game of the regular season.  I know, I'm sad too.  But if you head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like, I promise to post all the best news and notes leading up to the game!  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Week 11 Wrap Up

On a perfectly brisk fall afternoon, in front of an emotionally charged Senior Day/Whiteout crowd hoping for an upset, the dreams of Nittany Nation (no matter how unrealistic) were dashed as Penn State fell to the Michigan Wolverines by a score of 28-16.  Another lackluster performance by the offense mixed with the continued slide on defense gave us a perfect storm of ineptitude.  Despite a litany of self-inflicted penalties by Michigan, James Franklin's crew couldn't get out of their own way long enough to take advantage of the mistakes and eke out a win.  Their undefeated home record for the year was ruined as PSU slides to 7-4 with the mighty Spartans of Michigan State looming on the road next week to finish out the season.  The loss was expected, the lingering disappointment, not so much.

Before we get started, I haven't had a chance to do a recruiting update in a while.  Saturday was actually a huge recruiting day with upwards of 100 prospects on hand.  Obviously most are just there to be on the sidelines for a free football game; many wouldn't stand a chance as anything other than a walk-on; and still others have no intention of ever attending PSU.  Regardless, 2017 LB prospect Dylan Rivers decided to pull the proverbial trigger more than a year early and commit to the Nittany Lions!  We'll be focused more on the 2016 class in the spring, but welcome to Linebacker U anyway Dylan!

Watching on TV, my first thought was that this was the best crowd I might have ever seen at Penn State for a noon kick off.  Coincidentally, it was also the highest rated noon game in all of college football this year.  Being the Whiteout game obviously helped, and I'll admit it actually looked surprisingly decent in the day time (not the complete "wow factor" of a nighttime Whiteout, but impressive nonetheless).  As I mentioned, it was also a very special Senior Day because the last class to be recruited by and play for Joe Paterno took the home field one last time.  A total of 6 fifth year Seniors were honored as JoePa's last class: TE Kyle Carter, LB Ben Kline, OL Angelo Mangiro, DE Carl Nassib, WR Matt Zanellato, and DT Anthony Zettel.  Thank you gentlemen!  Your loyalty will never be forgotten.

Getting back to game action, Penn State has finally faced some real competition in the last few weeks and the results are in: this team is mediocre at best.  They beat who they're supposed to beat and lose to who they're supposed to lose to (in other words, ranked teams).  In the loss to Michigan the same three problems that have plagued the Lions all year continued to ruin any chance of success. 1) Special Teams is a complete mess. 2) The offensive line has not improved and might have regressed, and 3) The coaching staff is not earning their Big Ten salaries, specifically because of horrible play calling and poor clock/game management.

Let's start with Special Teams.  It appears the coaches have relegated Joey Julius to just kick offs because of his stronger, yet less accurate leg.  To his credit Tyler Davis hit all of his FGs and his extra point on Saturday.  Conversely the punting game featured short kicks and bad coverage.  And then there's DeAndre Thompkins.  His fumbled return inside the 10 giftwrapped a TD to Michigan and drastically altered the end-of-game strategy.  It's not the first time either.  The redshirt freshman has had ball security issues all season.  We get it, he's fast, but there's more to football than speed.

Ugh, the offensive line...  I was scared for Christian Hackenberg after the Temple Game, then the line went on a streak of games with no sacks.  That only served to lull me into a false sense of security.  This week they added 4 sacks to the stat sheet, but honestly, Hack was running for his life all day.  Michigan's line, on the other hand, stopped our pass rush and gave Jake Ruddock all the time in the world to distribute the ball.  They seemed to effortlessly stand up our All-Big Ten defensive linemen and hold their blocks for as long as they wanted. Consequently, Jake Rudock (25-38 for 256 yds and 2 TDs) out-shined Christian Hackenberg (13-31 for 137 yds and 1 TD) in his own house, in possibly his last game in Beaver Stadium.  Rudock was in a consistent rhythm all day.  By the 4th quarter, Hackenberg was visibly shaken and disoriented from the crushing shots he kept taking.  It was night and day and hard to watch.

Now we get to the playcalling.  Boring, predictable, situationally unaware, we saw it all in this game.  The one positive is that the skill guys in particular have proven they can make chunk plays.  Production has gone down since the Maryland game, but the Lions still had 4 plays of 20+ yds.  That will only get you so far though.  Contrary to my prediction, Saquon Barkley struggled.  He started out like his usual self, sprinting up the middle on his first carry for 56 yds to get the offense inside the 10.  Three stuffed runs later and we were already settling for our first FG.  Worse still, if you set that run aside, Barkley only had 29 yds on 14 carries with no TDs for the rest of the game.  Overall the offense just isn't good at staying on the field.  On critical 3rd downs we converted just 3 out of 14 attempts.  That's not how you win football games.

Arguably the biggest difference between these coaching staffs, though, was game management.  After apologizing for his poor clock management against Northwestern, James Franklin again couldn't get out of his own way.  He wasted time outs in the 2nd half, and played conservatively from behind, especially in the red zone, settling for a FG three times with a TD in reach.  But it was his decision at the end of the 1st half that had myself and seemingly everyone in the stands scratching their heads.  With enough time for a drive and given the fact that Michigan would be getting the ball to start the 2nd half, Franklin chose to take a knee and head to the locker room.  Even ESPN's Mark May agreed that Franklin should have at least tried to put some points on the board.

Meanwhile, the defense, which had been the strength of this team all year, finally showed that maybe they're human after all.  Carl Nassib was injured, and Anthony Zettel was probably playing half speed after almost getting ejected for targeting (which was a bullshit call btw), so the defensive line gets a slight pass.  To the rest of the defense, however, all I can say is tackling, tackling, tackling!  Our admittedly young back seven got bullied by a more physical team.  Brandon Bell went berserk with 5 tackles, a sack, a forced fumble that he recovered himself, and even an interception which he returned for 25 yds.  The other LBs not so much.  Don't get me wrong, Cabinda and Reeder were 2nd and 3rd in tackling, but they missed opportunities and took bad angles all afternoon.  In the secondary, it was yds after the catch.  Back there, injuries again took their toll as both CB Christian Campbell and S Jordan Lucas were out (fellow Senior Malik Golden wore Lucas's #9 in his honor).

If you'd like some in depth game summaries, might I suggest Black Shoe Diaries, or Onward State.

Ok, so how did I do on my prediction?  Well, I was off on the score but I knew we would lose, although that's not much consolation.  I was close with Hackenberg but waaaay off about Saquon Barkley having a big day.  There was no way for me to know about Nassib's injury, and Brandon Bell hogged all the turnovers to himself.  Who are we kidding, when the Lions lose, no one cares about predictions.

Alright, come on back this Wednesday night for the weekly grades.  On Friday I'll try to fit some writing in between my shopping and fill you in on the last game of the regular season.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State! 

Christian Hackenberg

I couldn't really come up with something to talk about over the bye week.  However, upon reflecting on today's final home game against Michigan, I would be remiss if I didn't take some time and talk about a story that's getting a lot of attention, but for what I believe are the wrong reasons: Christian Hackenberg.

After the Sandusky scandal broke in 2011 and Joe Paterno was fired, a bright, young football mind came to Happy Valley in the form of Bill O'Brien.  Hailed as a QB guru who had coached Tom Brady in a Superbowl victory, O'Brien's first act as coach was to hold a camp for recruits at the "most important position on the field."  If memory serves me correctly, no fewer than 8 QB prospects came out that weekend and none walked away more impressed than Christian Hackenberg.  To this day I don't know what it was, but upon reading an article about the camp, I turned to a coworker and said "Hackenberg... that sounds like a mighty fine name for the next great Penn State QB."  It wasn't until later that I realized he was also a 5-star recruit and the nation's #1 QB prospect.  I was excited when he committed, I was downright giddy when he held firm to that commitment in the face of unprecedented NCAA sanctions.  Throughout his career, I admit I have been one of Hack's biggest apologists.  After Paul Posluzney graduated, and Silas Redd left for USC, I was desperate for a new favorite player, and Hackenberg filled the role nicely long before his first collegiate snap.  Even on his off days I defended his abilities against any critic who offered the challenge.  These days I feel like I have a connection with Hackenberg.  As the hipsters like to say, I was a fan before it was cool.

Well, as much as I've been trying to avoid admitting it, the Michigan game likely marked Christian Hackenberg's last Whiteout, last Senior day, and last game in Beaver Stadium.  As far as I know, he was not honored during the pregame ceremony (because he's not a Senior obviously) which is a shame.  It just feels like he was robbed of the recognition he deserves.  Despite having no emotional connection to the school prior to enrolling, he demonstrated incredible loyalty to Penn State in its darkest hour.  He competed every week on the field and poured his heart into showing us all what it really means to be a Nittany Lion.  As expected from his 5-star rating, Hackenberg will leave school having broke essentially every school passing record there is... by a lot in most cases.  No, he wasn't always perfect, and in some games he was downright awful.  But under his leadership, Penn State would not suffer a single losing season during the sanction era.  They recorded wins against a ranked Northwestern, an undefeated (at the time) Michigan, and a heavily favored Wisconsin on the road, on top of winning a game in Ireland and a bowl game they never thought they'd get to play in.  That's a nice resume by any standard and Hackenberg should be proud of all that he's accomplished while in Happy Valley.  And there's still two more opportunities to showcase his talents while wearing the Blue and White.

So if it comes to pass that Christian Hackenberg does move on after this season, take a second during these last few weeks and honestly reflect on this kid.  Whether the doubters like it or not, he'll go down as a Penn State legend, on par with Franco Harris, Jack Ham, Kerry Collins, and LaVar Arrington.  Let's cheer him on as hard as possible and maybe, just maybe, he can pull off one final miracle against Michigan State or against a quality opponent in the bowl game.  Then, who knows, he might just end up following Bill O'Brien to the NFL after all.

Week 11 Prediction

For some reason that is completely beyond me, ESPN exercised their scheduling rights for this week's slate of Big Ten games (meaning they can basically wait until the last minute to announce the kickoff times).  After making us wait all that time, the big reveal was that we'll be playing Michigan at noon on ABC.  That's right, two marquee programs, in Penn State's last home game of the season, on Senior Day, for the Whiteout game... and they give us fucking NOON?!  I will destroy them all for their insolence!

I really don't like noon games

*calms down*

Anyway, as I was saying, it's once again time to take on the Michigan Wolverines in this year's Whiteout game, which also serves as Senior Day.  It's a trifecta of fun!  First year head man Jim Harbaugh brings the #12 team in the country into Beaver Stadium on what should be a very celebratory day.  This year we honor a special Senior class who represent the last players to ever play for Joe Paterno, and the last remnants of a 2011 team that played through the most notorious scandal in college football history.  Of all the players on that team, this class would have been the easiest to forgive for jumping ship.  Yet nearly all of them stayed true to Penn State.  It's not a big group, but they got the job done.  Thank you Seniors!!!  Special thanks to Kyle Carter, Austin Johnson, Ben Kline, Jordan Lucas, Angelo Mangiro, Trevor Williams, Matt Zanelatto, and of course, Anthony Zettel!

As for the game, it's shaping up to be a low scoring affair in a battle of mediocre offenses vs exceptional defenses.  Let's get to the breakdown!

The Good
Well, at least we have home field advantage!  I'm not just saying that either.  Penn State has won their last 3 home games against the Wolverines, often in front of a Whiteout crowd.  I also think Michigan will be looking ahead to their real rivals, Ohio State, next week.  This is what we in the business call a "let down look ahead" or a "trap" game, and it happens all the time in college.  Whiteout games are magical and strange things have been known to happen.  Fingers crossed that magic continues on Saturday.

Last week against Indiana the Wolverines gave up 238 yds on 35 attempts to RB Jordan Howard, proving that you can run on this defense.  Saquon Barkley, as we all know by now, is an absolute beast and I look for him to have an equally impressive day.  Big time players make big time plays in big time games.  I'm already convinced that Barkley is a big time player; so you do the math.

I'll say it again, our defense is designed to stop pro style offenses, and this is about as pro style as it gets (I recall that Harbaugh guy spending some time in the NFL).  It's quite realistic to expect a performance out of our guys more along the lines of the Rutgers or Illinois games rather than Temple or Ohio State.  The line will get pressure all afternoon and if guys like Grant Haley and Marcus Allen can pick a few lobbed passes out of the air, momentum will do the rest.  Now I'll admit that for as good as our defense is, Michigan is better (arguably, much better).  But the one area where our defense holds a decided advantage is turnovers.  A few of those, plus protecting the football on offense, could serve as the key to this game and equal a Nittany Lion victory!

The Bad
Michigan is currently ranked #12 in the College Football Playoff rankings, and there's a reason for that.  Former coach Brady Hoke couldn't coach very well, but he could sure recruit and let's just say the cupboards weren't bare when Harbaugh arrived on campus.  Mix that in with ol' Jimmy's coaching acumen and you've got yourselves a winning program.  Unfortunately we have to play them every year... including at noon tomorrow.

The Nittany Lions, who are coming off their much deserved bye week, are actually 0-4 coming off bye weeks since the start of the 2013 season.  Past performance is not an indicator of future performance yeah yeah yeah, but damn, that doesn't leave me confident.

As for personnel, offensively the biggest name to watch out for is Jake Butt, a talented WR/TE who leads the team in reception yds and is a threat from pretty much anywhere on the field.  He's a big body that can bowl over many of your second level defenders.  Next to him is the speedy De'Veon Smith at RB, who will hopefully struggle against a dominant PSU defensive front.  The more talented backs on Penn State's schedule were able to have success this year.  Hopefully Smith isn't one of them.

The strength of Michigan's stellar defense is their secondary.  They have the ability to shut down even the most talented WR corps, enabling them to stuff the box against the run (aka Saquon Barkley).  Led by Jourdan Lewis and stud recruit Jabrill Peppers, they're possibly the best defensive backfield in the conference.  Oh, and Peppers is also a dangerous return man who can take it to the house if the coverage teams aren't paying attention.

Speaking of special teams, Penn State hasn't been great on kick off coverages.  Michigan has been great at kick off returns (re: Peppers).  We're also bad at coverting 3rd downs, while they're good at stopping them.  This leads to lots of punting, something we're been known to suck at.  Still, if things bounce the Lions' way in these two areas, expect a possible upset.  If they bounce the other way, though, the score could get ugly in a hurry.

The Story
The last time these teams played each other in Beaver Stadium it was an instant classic 4OT thriller (that I watched on a TV in the parking lot because I couldn't get a ticket).  Like the 2005 Ohio State game, that matchup will go down in Penn State history.  So let us now take a second and recall fondly: the catch.  Here's to another instant classic tomorrow.

This dude is killing it in Jacksonville btw

Michigan QB Jake Rudock is actually a transfer from Iowa, which is incredibly rare in college football.  Usually, coaches have immense sway over where and even IF their players can transfer.  A ban from transferring to another school in your conference is basically an unspoken rule.  And yet, here we are.  Honestly, it's worked out for both teams as Iowa is currently 10-0 without Rudock and Michigan has managed to get 2,220 yds passing out of him, along with an 8-2 record.

But the real story is Jim Harbaugh.  In a surprising move, he became one of the only successful NFL coaches in history to make the switch "down" to the college level (usually it's the other way around or bad NFL coaches come to college).  After coaching in a Superbowl, he returned to his alma mater and turned a 5-7 (3-5 Big Ten) squad into the country's #12 team in less than one season.  Harbaugh is an evil football genius, and his battles with James Franklin, Urban Meyer, and Mark Dantonio in the Big Ten East Division should provide some very entertaining football for years to come.  This could be the start of a beautiful hatred.

The Prediction
Penn State comes in a mere 3.5 point underdog.  I think that's more a reflection of the low score people are expecting and less about the perceived talent gap between the two teams (most people think Michigan has significantly more talent).  I think Hackenberg plays inspired and throws for 150 yds and a TD (which is actually really good against this Michigan secondary).  But it's Saquon Barkley that puts up the big numbers.  I'm calling it right now, he goes for 200 yds and a TD!  On the other side of the ball, Carl Nassib keeps the streak alive and adds another sack to his total while Austin Johnson forces a fumble that's recovered by Anthony Zettel.  Regrettably, S Jordan Lucas is injured, but fellow Senior Trevor Williams gets an interception for his fallen teammate.  However, despite all of this, it's not enough to beat the superior team.  Michigan breaks everyone's heart in a close one.  Final score, 17 - 21

Alright, that will do it for tonight.  Sorry this got out late, my new work schedule is brutal.  Check back on Saturday night for a special piece on Christian Hackenberg, then stop by on Monday night for the weekly wrap up.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Week 10 Grades

We finally did it!  Penn State has made it to their bye week!  After 10 grueling weeks in a row, the grind of the season clearly took its toll on the Nittany Lions.  They couldn't get it done and finish off Northwestern, despite clinging to a 1 point lead in the final minutes.  In the end, they fell to the Wildcats, 23-21.  Every player on the team will now get some much needed rest before a brutal final two games against the Michigan schools.  We'll get to that more next Friday, but for now, let's roll out some grades!  

Offense

QB: (D/B+) I think this is the first time I've ever given out two grades to the same position.  The simple fact is Christian Hackenberg was a completely different QB in the 1st half (1 of 10) than he was in the 2nd half (20 of 30).  All told he threw for 205 yds with no TDs, but he did throw his first interception in what seems like forever (and only his 3rd of the year).  With the way he's played of late, I want to be optimistic that he's trending upwards... against the Wolverines and Spartans, though?  Baring a miracle, Hack will most likely end the season on a sour note.  But hey, there's always the bowl game!  

OL: (B) They couldn't get a solid push when they needed to in the run game.  However, in pass protection, the big uglies up front have gotten better each week.  Hackenberg is no longer running for his life, and for the most part he had more than enough time to make his reads throughout Saturday's contest.  The only problem is he wouldn't get rid of the ball!  Those kinds of mental errors reflect poorly on the offensive line, but they shouldn't.  This group is slowly gelling, and by next season, I expect them to start dominating.

RB: (A-) There was a time when rushing for 100 yds in a game was considered impressive - last season for example.  But when Saquon Barkley is your RB, that's considered an off day.  Barkley currently ranks 39th nationally in rushing yds per attempt and 34th in total rushing yds with 836 (keep in mind that he missed two games due to injury and basically didn't play against Temple).  Even still, he is the most productive true freshmen in the country by nearly 100 yds!  He is for real ladies and gentlemen.  Everything you’re seeing is actually happening.  Oh, against Northwestern he ran for 133 yds and 2 TDs while catching 6 passes for another 50 yds... you know, just in case you were wondering.

WR: (A) Chris Godwin led the way again with 8 catches for 104 yds and is turning into a reliable target for... who are we kidding?  The only play that mattered for this group was the ridiculous double-reverse gone awry, turned TD pass from Geno Lewis to Daesean Hamilton.  It was insane, unbelievable, *insert adjective here*!!!  Keep this in mind: no matter who is playing QB next year (news flash, it won't be Hackenberg), they will have arguably the top WR corps in the country.  Our days of worrying about offensive production might soon be over.

TE: (F) "The beatings will continue until morale improves."  This famous phrase certainly applies to this group.  They will continue to get Fs until I see them do something that even remotely resembles playing football.  Despite each of them making a catch, Mike Gesicki dropped 3 passes while Kyle Carter dropped at least 1.  I'm not even going to name the third TE on the roster because he hasn't done enough to be recognized.  Seriously, can we get Bill O'Brien back, at least to be our TEs coach?

Defense

DL: (A) What's left to say about this group?  I honestly can't name another team/school, at least since I've been paying attention to college football, that has no fewer than three early round draft picks currently starting on their defensive line.  These guys are amazing and so much fun to watch!  Austin Johnson led the team in tackles against Northwestern with 10, including 2 for a loss and a sack.  Carl Nassib *only* had 4 tackles and a sack (although he leads the nation with 16 sacks and 6 forced fumbles).  And Garrett Sickels tacked on 3 more tackles as well as a sack of his own.  We have three games left with these guys, enjoy it.

LB: (B+) Brandon Bell had his best game of the season.  He was second on the team in tackles with 8, but more impressively he had 3.5 tackles for a loss, 2.5 of which were sacks!  Troy Reeder wasn't too shabby either with 6 tackles.  And although Jason Cabinda only had 3 tackles, he had a sack and an interception.  All in all, a good day.  Here's the thing, though, if you actually watched the game on Saturday, the LBs consistently took bad angles and missed tackles because of it.  There's no other way of putting it; they're terrible against running QBs.  However, no one from this group will graduate in the offseason.  If they can work on that over the summer, they'll be unstoppable by this time next year.

DB: (A-) Marcus Allen, 7 tackles and a forced fumble.  Malik Golden, 6 tackles.  Grant Haley, 4 tackles, a forced fumble, and a pass breakup.  Trevor Williams, 3 tackles including 1 for a loss.  Yep, I'd say the future is pretty bright in the defensive backfield.  My only gripe from the game was Grant Haley missing two easy interceptions.  Not only would that have made my prediction come true, the second one probably would've won the game for Penn State if he had managed to pull it in.  Oh well, they're still awesome.

Special Teams

K: (D) But didn't Tyler Davis hit all 3 extra points? Yes.  And he didn't miss any FGs because he didn't attempt any, right? Correct.  Well then, what's with the grade Optimus?  A 96 yd kickoff returned for a TD on one of many squib kicks, where the key missed tackle was by none other than Tyler himself.  That's why.

P: (C) Pasquariello wasn't awful, getting the ball inside the 20 once and getting a touch back once.  Chris Gulla only punted twice but looked pretty bad both times.  Meanwhile I'm just sitting here waiting for Blake Gilikin to show up.

Today's bonus grade is a B, which of course stands for BYE WEEK!

Alright, that will do it for Northwestern.  I'm going to try to come up with something this week to celebrate the bye, but obviously I haven't decided on what that is just yet.  If I can't come up with something, be sure to check back next Friday as Penn State plays it's last home game of the season vs Michigan in a full stadium White Out!  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Week 10 Wrap Up

Well, the prognosticators nailed it again.  They had called for a Wildcat victory by 2, and that's exactly what we got.  Northwestern pulled out the win on a last second FG for a final score of 23-21.  But no one could have guessed HOW it would all go down in one of the crazier defensive battles of the season.  No, this was not your stereotypical last second heartbreaker; the sad truth is Penn State didn't deserve to win.  And yet, with the way they overcame first half mistakes and admirably fought until the very end, they kind of did deserve it.  What's worse is that had it not been for clock management issues, they were in a position to win and might be sitting at 8-2 right now.  Instead, let's take a look back at yet another disappointing loss under James Franklin.

Before we do that, though, I wanted to quickly share a lighter story.  When I was a kid, I loved LEGOs.  So I was super excited when I found out about one fan who makes mini LEGO replicas of iconic stadiums.  And when he decided to design five Big Ten versions, you can bet Beaver Stadium was one of those chosen.  He even sells them on Etsy!

Anyway, let's get into what happened by starting with an injury report.  TE Adam Breneman, backup CB Christian Campbell, and backup LT Chasz Wright all didn't make the trip to Evanston.  Kicker Joey Julius didn't make the trip either, although for performance reasons.  Instead, Tyler Davis and walk-on Robbie Leibel handled kicking duties.  During the game, S Jordan Lucas and DE Carl Nassib would both leave and not return.  Good thing we're on a long overdue bye week!

So, what happened?

Well, Penn State started with the ball, and Hackenberg immediately nailed a referee in the head on what looked like a surefire 1st down pass.  Oops.  After an offsides penalty, Danny Pasquariello made his first of many appearances.  Meanwhile, on their first possession, Northwestern’s QB Clayton Thorson turned out to be a decent passer.  He got the Wildcats deep into PSU territory but it would ultimately end with a missed FG, leaving the score at 0-0.

An otherwise forgettable pass to Chris Godwin, on an otherwise forgettable drive, helped Christian Hackenberg set another Penn State single-season record, this time for completions.  Punt.  Back on defense, Brandon Bell got his first of two sacks, while Austin Johnson’s 56th tackle of the season made him the national leader for tackles by a DT.  Punt.  Neither Barkley nor Hackenberg could really get anything going on their own.  In fact, Penn State's first 1st down of the day came by way of a questionable roughing the passer penalty.  It wouldn't mean much.  Punt.  Clayton Thorson also tried his best to wake up his team, but spent most of the time getting punished by our defense.  Punt.

By this point it was clear that both defensive lines were exceptional; they just did it in different ways.  While Penn State gets in the backfield and puts pressure on the QB, Northwestern gets their hands up and swats down anything that comes their way, particularly Hackenberg's passes.  It seemed like they tipped every other throw!

Thorson would try to carry his team, but also paid the price for doing so.  He took his second massive hit of the day and went down hard, this time winding up in the locker room being evaluated by trainers.  He would not return.  So his back up, senior Zack Oliver took over.  Punt.  Godwin proved once again that he can make clutch receptions... Mike Gesicki proved once again that he cannot.  By Onward State's count, he dropped 3 catches on Saturday.  Punt.

At the start the 2nd quarter, Northwestern's Warren Long had a nice 35 yd run that got his team into the redzone where Zack Oliver delivered a dart to the back of endzone for a 7-0 lead.  Penn State would punt, then Northwestern's Justin Jackson took over the game.  He got his team inside the 5 where Oliver faked a handoff and punched it in himself.  A missed extra point, gave the Wildcats a 13-0 lead and things were starting to look dire.

It was time for Saquon Barkley to wake the offense up.  He made his presence felt with a 31 yd completion, and after a 20 yd pass to Chris Godwin, lined up in the wildcat.  I hated this formation last year, but with Saquon in charge?  I've slowly come around.  Sure enough, he kept it, cut around the outside, and took it in for the touchdown and the Lions' first points of the day.

The celebration was cut short as Solomon Vault took the ensuing kickoff 96 yds to the house, even after initially fumbling the return.  Everything was bouncing Northwestern's way.  Koa Farmer tried to answer with his own impressive return out to the 38 yd line.  Unfortunately, a sack on Hackenberg would stall the drive.  Punt.  The defense would hold into halftime.

With the ball to start the 2nd half, Zack Oliver couldn't really do much.  Punt.  Surprisingly, neither could Barkley.  Punt.  Despite good starting field position, NW stalled again.  Punt.  Another PSU three-and-out.  Punt.  Are you sensing a theme yet?  Finally, with Justin Jackson firing on all cylinders, the Wildcats put together a drive long enough to attempt a FG... but once again, they missed.

Now contrary to the announcer's comments, the offensive line had actually played fairly well to this point.  In most cases it was Hackenberg holding the ball or WRs dropping passes that had caused the offensive futility.  All the punting must have tired out Pasquariello, because Chris Gulla took over at punter.  Also around this time, Northwestern started to make uncharacteristic mistakes.  Gulla drew a roughing the kicker penalty that gave the Lions a 1st down at the 45 yd line.  Hackenberg took off on a rare QB sneak and drew a hit late penalty.  It would all set up the single most amazing play of the day, and possibly the season.  It was so ridiculous I'm still trying to process what exactly we all witnessed.  Here's the gist: Hackenberg handed the ball off to Brandon Polk, who in turn tried to hand it off to Geno Lewis on a double reverse... except Polk fumbled it.  Luckily, the ball bounced off the ground and right into Lewis' waiting arms.  Geno planted his feet, wound up, and launched a bomb down the sideline to fellow WR Daesean Hamilton who dove for the pylon for the touchdown!  The score was now 20-14 and momentum had completely swung in Penn State's favor.

On the next drive, LB Jason Cabinda got his first interception of the year, and although the Nittany Lion offense couldn't capitalize for points, it completely flipped the field position.  More penalties on Northwestern would end the 3rd quarter.

Carl Nassib started off theg final quarter in a big way, setting a record in the process.  His 15.5 sack of the season came in the form of a bone-crushing clothesline to Zack Oliver and set the all-time Penn State mark which had stood since the late 70s!  Congrats Carl!!!

That's when the Saquon Barkley show began.  He took a run up the middle for 23 yds, followed by another gain of 13 yds right afterwards.  Chris Godwin got his hands under a low pass for 26 more and all of a sudden Penn State was at the Northwestern 12 yd line.  Just like before, Barkley lined up in the wildcat and ended it the same way, only more impressively!  The kick by Tyler Davis gave Penn State its first lead of the day, 21-20!

PSU's fifth sack of the day and a near interception by Troy Apke kept hope alive.  Punt.  Barkley kept things rolling with two 1st downs, but came up limping and went to the sideline.  With his RB out, Hackenberg dropped back and was sacked, then intercepted by Nick VanHoose on the next play.  It was Hack's first turnover in 203 attempts, which is disappointing, but simultaneously impressive.  Penn State's sixth sack of the game came at the hands of Garrett Sickels.  Combined with an epic all-out blitz on 3rd and 17, it was just too much pressure.  Punt.  Penn State took over with 3 minutes left, nursing a 1 point lead, and starting at their own 5 yd line.  This time the wildcat formation didn't work and Pasquariello came back out.  A favorable roll pinned NW at their own 45.

Grant Haley almost intercepted his second pass of the day, which would have not only fulfilled my prediction, it would have effectively ended the game.  Instead, on 3rd and 15, WR Austin Carr went for 25 yds but more importantly got Northwestern into FG range.  After another 1st down, it was obvious that Pat Fitzgerald would drain the clock and try a last minute FG.  However, despite having all 3 of his time outs, James Franklin stood firm on the sidelines and waited -- 2nd down and only 22 seconds left (time out); 3rd down with 18 seconds left (time out); 4th down with 13 seconds left (time out).  Afterwards, all the coach had to say was "that was my missed opportunity."  Sure enough, Jack Mitchell put it right down the middle to give his team a 23-21 lead and the win.

Obviously, this was not Penn State's finest hour.  It also wasn't their low point either.  As Cari Green from Black Shoe Diaries puts it, the sky isn't falling.  This program has been here before, and they'll be here again.  You can still be a fan, you can still be proud, and you can still have one heck of a time doing both.

Ok, how did I do?  Well I basically nailed the score, but for the wrong teams.  Hackenberg did have over 200 yds (205 to be exact), but he threw his first pick since week 3 instead of another TD pass.  Barkley "only" had 133 yds rushing, but if you add in his 50 yds receiving, he more than eclipsed the 150 yds I predicted, plus he scored 2 TDs like I called!  Thankfully special teams wasn't a problem as Tyler Davis nailed all his extra points, including the one that gave Penn State a late lead and hope for a win.  On defense, Carl Nassib only had 1 sack, but he also had a forced fumble.  Austin Johnson actually led the team with 10 tackles, and it was Jason Cabinda, not Grant Haley, who recorded the interception.  Overall, probably one of my better weeks.

Alright, that will do it for today.  Check back in on Wednesday for my weekly grades before we head into the much anticipated bye week.  I'll see if I can come up with something special for then.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!