Week 10 Prediction

In the annals of Pennsylvania collegiate football history, there are only two major teams and only one big game: Penn State vs Pitt.  However, that series, which is enshrined in the College Football Hall of Fame as one of the best rivalries in football, has been on hiatus since 2000.  Have no fear, it will return in 2016.  But in the meantime, the Nittany Lions have had to settle for beating up poor little brother Temple, playing the team from Philly every year from 2006-2012.  How will Hackenberg and company handle the Fightin Bill Cosbys this week?  Let’s find out in a shortened version of this week’s breakdown! (Then I have a surprise!)

The Penn State/Pitt rivalry at the College Football Hall of Fame in 2006.

The Good

Unfortunately, I’m only familiar with one player on Temple’s roster, star WR Jalen Fitzpatrick.  Luckily for the Penn State secondary, Fitzpatrick is currently injured and will be a game time decision.  On our own injury front, both Miles Deiffenbach and Donovan Smith should be back in action!  Hopefully their return will once again spark our beleaguered offensive line.  The only other good thing you need to know is that Penn State is the better team, with better players, better coaches, and oh yeah, we’re playing at home in Beaver Stadium in front of the best fans in college football.  Also, I’ll be there cheering them on, and that’s got to count for something, right?

The Bad

Our offense downright sucks at the moment and continues to struggle putting points up on anyone, regardless of their talent level on defense.  That trend will probably continue this week in spite of any talent gap that may exist on the field.  Like every game so far, this will probably be an ugly, low scoring, punt heavy game that no one outside of the Keystone State will be paying much attention to.

The Story

Despite playing a total of 42 games to date, Temple has only won 3 of them.  The last time Temple beat Penn State was in 1941 - 10 years before Joe Paterno joined the PSU staff, and nearly 25 years before he was head coach.  Speaking of coaches, Temple’s head coach, Matt Rhule, is not only a State College native, having gone to State College High School, but also played LB at Penn State for the late Joe Paterno from 1994-1997.  Coincidentally, current Penn State LB Nyeem Wartman was recruited by Temple… after he already had an offer from Penn State.  Nevertheless, the Owls wanted Wartman to attend a camp to get a look at him before they extended him an offer as well.  His response was classic, “You get a Penn State offer, you don’t need to go to a Temple camp to prove yourself.”  Plenty of guys on Temple's roster have had the exact opposite experience, so in spite of the one sided nature of this "rivalry", expect there to be a little tension going into this one.

The Interview

And now, my surprise!  I'll be honest, since I'm heading up for the game this week I didn't have a lot of time to go too deep into the Temple Owls.  So instead, I decided to let a good friend of mine do the work for me!  Besides being a friend of the blog, Josh Godshall is also a Temple University alumnus who follows the team closely.  Although he eventually obtained an IT degree, he began his studies at Temple in the Journalism department.  We grew up together in Quakertown, PA where Josh covered sports for the local paper, The Free Press, as early as high school.  Unlike me, he played football, so he should be able to provide a unique perspective on this match up.

Optimus: Hey Josh, let's start with the obligatory pleasantries; how have you been? 

Josh: Pretty good, just living the American dream.  Paying off school loans and fixing people's computers mostly.  And the Eagles are looking pretty good, so that helps. 

O: Good to hear!  Now, given recent events I have to start with this; can we expect a hand shake from your guys before the game this week?

J: Of course!  Al Golden is still a God around here... we couldn't insult his alma mater like that.

O: We'll get to him later, but it's great to hear he left a classy legacy behind (must have gotten that from his college coach).  So overall, can you give us a sense of this year's Temple team?  What are some of their strengths, and what are some of their weaknesses? 

J: Of all the Temple teams I've followed, this is easily one of the hardest to sum up.  This group of Owls is one of those squads that somehow finds ways to win games they probably shouldn't, so if anything that makes me feel optimistic going into Saturday.  On paper, Temple is near the bottom of the American Athletic Conference in just about everything.  In the 11 team league, Temple ranks 10th in total offense, and 8th in total defense.  We’re dead last in rushing as an offense, and second to last in passing.  Dismal numbers aside, though, the Owls have an AAC leading 14 sacks, and can generate enough pressure on the line to mask some of their issues in the secondary.

Despite a lack of game changing playmakers, this team has a knack for busting long offensive touchdowns that keep them in the game.  When Quarterback P.J. Walker is having an on-game, he elevates everyone around him, and usually mediocre players like running back Kenneth Harper start looking like Bernard Pierce reincarnated.  Still, Walker is only a sophomore, and is yet to play in an environment like a packed Beaver Stadium.  He’s shown some poise so far this year, and definitely doesn't lack in confidence, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get caught up in the moment a bit in front of such a big crowd.  Penn State’s biggest goal should be to get him rattled early and often. 

O: Oh, I think our defense will be just fine getting pressure, especially in front of a home crowd.  Moving on, who are some of the impact players Penn State should watch out for on this Temple squad?

J: Defensively, keep your eyes on #8.  Tyler Matakevich (Jr. LB) is an absolute stud in run support, and sets the tone for the entire defense.  Last year Matakevich led the NCAA with 8.8 solo tackles per game, and was second in the NCAA in total stops per game.  This is nothing new…the guy had 15 tackles (12 solo) and 2 for a loss in his first game as a true freshman.  On Saturday, he should continue to add to his 83 total tackles so far in 2014.  I just really wish he didn't look like a constipated Andy Dalton.

Offensively, the Owls live and die by which P.J. Walker shows up.  A true dual threat QB, he’s still the best offensive weapon Temple has but has been extremely inconsistent in 2014 (1679 passing yards, 11 TD/10 INT, 54.4 CMP%).  He's still very raw, but has shown himself to be clutch when needed, as evidenced by all 3 of his rushing TDs this year coming on critical drives in the game.  I’m anxious to see how he handles an environment like the one that the PSU crowd brings.  If he can cut down on the sacks he takes (15 on the year so far), he’s a talented enough athlete to catch the Lions by surprise.

O: Don't worry, we know all about QB struggles.  Our guy has more INTs (12) and has taken more than double that number of sacks (35)... but I digress.  On to coaching!  Temple already had one former Nittany Lion as their head coach in the aforementioned Al Golden.  After a brief time with Steve Addazio, you now have another former Lion in Matt Rhule.  Is there a particular reason you guys keep tapping Penn Staters to lead your program?

J: Temple’s ties to the Penn State program come down to a few factors.  For starters, simple geography.  Both schools share more or less the same recruiting footprint, and often are after some of the same players.  When it comes time for Temple to make a hire, it makes sense to try to grab some coaches from programs already familiar with the areas you recruit in.  Also, historically, both schools have been built around tough defense and a commitment to the ground game.  Again, this familiarity is a big factor in why PSU coaches get phone calls when a coaching spot at TU opens up. 

O: Temple beat Vanderbilt (James Franklin’s old team) earlier in the year.  Is there any advantage to be gained now that you’re playing Franklin’s new team? 

J: Personally I've never bought too much into this line of thinking.  When it comes down to it, Franklin wasn't on the sideline when Temple beat Vandy this year.  Good coaches adapt to the team they have at their disposal, so to think Franklin is doing all the same things in Happy Valley that he did at Vandy would be a mistake on Temple’s part.  I think if anything, the fact that Temple has played Penn State at Beaver Stadium a few times in recent seasons is a bigger game day advantage than anything that the Vanderbilt win offers.

O: Ok, fair enough.  You guys also beat ECU, which was definitely impressive.  How did the Owls manage that one?  Also, what did it feel like to finally beat a ranked team?  I know you guys don't do that very often. 

J: The ECU win came down to one simple thing: turnovers.  When you force 5 fumbles and block a kick, you’re going to win more often than not.  Doing it against the AAC’s best offense was just icing on the cake, but the Owls have struggled to recapture the defensive dominance they had on November 1st.  Interestingly, it was one of the Owls' worst days on offense in a while.  If it wasn't for 2 Kenneth Harper TDs (one of which included an absolutely dirty spin move), P.J. Walker and his 70 yards of passing on the day would have probably spoiled what ended up being a great win.   

To you high and mighty PSU’ers, beating a ranked team probably seems like nothing more than a solid victory, but to struggling programs like Temple, these wins can be important recruiting foundations.  You can only beat the team lined up across from you, so to have Temple rise to the occasion and knock off their toughest opponent yet could prove important for not just this group of Owls, but also for what group of Owls Matt Rhule is able to attract to North Broad Street going forward.

O: Good point.  Sorry for the jab, hope you don't mind another.  Penn Staters have never really felt like anyone's “little brother” but I would assume Temple fans feel that way toward PSU.  Do you guys have an inferiority complex with regard to Penn State?  If so, how do you handle it?

J: It pains me to say this, but yes.  Honestly, I think it has more to do with being a “Philly thing” than anything related specifically to Penn State.  Philly loves feeling like an underdog.  We love feeling cheated and forgotten.  We love being able to complain about it, and truly don’t know how to handle it when we win.  Just like how Philly as a city is constantly in the shadow of the bigger, taller skyscrapers of NYC, Temple as a football program is neatly nestled in the shadow of the PSU program.  You guys are simply too close geographically and too successful historically for that shadow to not reach us.

This inferiority complex isn't necessarily the worst thing, though.  It is no secret that many of the guys on the Temple squad probably had Penn State at the top of their list of dream schools to play at.  Some may have been snubbed by PSU completely, while others may have willingly chose a chance to start at Temple over being a benchwarmer for the Lions, but the result is the same; Temple players bring their all against the Lions.  Winning against Penn State would be the next best thing to actually playing for them in a lot of these guys' minds, so expect pride to be a big factor on the field come Saturday.

O: What’s with the whole diamond obsession?  I'm guessing there's a back story. 

J: I actually remember this from freshman orientation, here’s the scoop… 

Temple was founded for the simple purpose of providing Philadelphians with an affordable way to receive higher education.  The University has its roots as a night school started by Russel Conwell, a minister at the original Baptist Temple building on Broad Street.  Interestingly, the fact that all classes took place at night is what led to early Temple students being referred to as “night owls”, a mascot that has stuck to this day.

Anyways, before beginning his work at the Baptist Temple, Conwell made a name for himself as an inspirational speaker.  His most famous speech was called “Acres of Diamonds.”  Conwell’s core message in “Acres of Diamonds” is simple: one does not have to look far for the opportunity or resources needed to achieve greatness…the community around you is a literal acre of potential diamonds just waiting to be mined for their greatness.

Conwell would go on to deliver this speech more than 6,150 times around the world.  It was with the income that he earned from “Acres of Diamonds” that he would later go on to use in founding and establishing Temple University in 1884. 

O: I don't care what those Ivy League idiots at Penn think, Temple is the TRUE team of Philadelphia!  Alright, how about a score prediction?

J: Penn State wins 24 - 14

O: As Lee Corso would say, "great pick!"  Finally, we’ll get you out of here on a really controversial question.  Where’s the best place to get a cheesesteak in Philadelphia?

J: Mark Sanchez got it wrong on Sunday night…he should have gone to Tony Luke’s.

The Prediction

Well there you have it!  Hopefully that provided a nice inside look at this week's opponent from a completely different perspective than normal.  So what do I think is going to happen?  Well, Penn State is currently favored by 11 points.  With this offense, I'm finding it hard to envision we'll even score 11 points, let alone win by that many.  Josh mentioned a suspect secondary, though, so I'm going optimistic on this one.  I think the offensive line is inspired by the return of their two leaders and has its best game yet.  With decent protection, Hackenberg throws for over 200 yds and a TD to big Jesse James.  Hamilton also gets his second TD of the season.  The running game, however, still can't get going.  Penn State's defense is their usual self, but allows Temple's mobile QB to sneak a TD in somewhere and a FG happens.  Penn State wins, but can't cover the spread: 20 - 10

It's supposed to be nasty weather for this game, and it snowed last night, so I'm not looking forward to sitting in an open air stadium for 3 1/2 hours.  However, the combination of a win, bowl eligibility, and the chili cookoff I'll be attending after the game should warm me right up.  While I'm gone, be sure to go like and share my page on Facebook.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!