Week 12 Prediction

*Disclaimer: I fully admit that the only reason this post is going up so late is because I'm in State College and I just went out and partied at a bar with a bunch of former Blue Banders... sorry, not sorry.*

I know it’s hard to believe, but we've reached the conclusion of another season of Penn State football.  This week, the Michigan State Spartans come to town on Senior Day and battle the Nittany Lions for the Land Grant Trophy!  The weather will be chilly for the game, hovering in the 30s when things kick off at 3:30pm on ABC in the Northeast and Midwest, and ESPN2 in the South and West coast.  It will also serve as the 4th annual “Blue Out” game to help raise awareness for child sexual abuse.  So if, like me, you’re headed up for the game, make sure to wear your home blues over top of your layers in support of this important cause.  Ok, we have a lot to get through, so let’s get to the breakdown!

The Good

Penn State’s offensive line is at full strength, RB Akeel Lynch seems to be hitting his stride, we still have big time weapons like WR Daesean Hamilton and TE Jesse James, and of course, we have an absolutely elite defense.  These are things to keep in mind with a game like this as the Spartans are possibly the best team on Penn State’s entire 2014 schedule.  It’s easy to succumb to despair if you don’t remind yourself of the positives.

Last year, Bill O’Brien took his Nittany Lions, led by a true freshman QB, into Camp Randall Stadium to take on a highly ranked Wisconsin team.  Penn State was a 28 point underdog, and yet somehow, they dominated the game from start to finish and came out with a shocking victory to cap off the year.  However, if you’re hoping for a repeat of that performance, well, you’re a bigger optimist than I.  Still, Mark Dantonio is technically 2-3 against Penn State, so we live in hope.

How might the Lions actually pull this off?  Well, Michigan State’s defense has been dominant in recent years, helping them achieve unprecedented success for the program.  The last few seasons in particular saw the rise of CB Darqueze Dennard and his “No Fly Zone” style of defense.  But with Dennard’s graduation, Darian Hicks has stepped in at CB and has not played nearly up to standard.  If Hackenberg can get over his yips and get some deep balls to Hamilton or Lewis, things could get really interesting.  Defensively, Penn State should focus on getting pressure.  Michigan State’s QB Connor Cook is very good, but he’s been known to make mistakes when frazzled.  If the D-line can get in his face, and the secondary can pay attention, interceptions are a strong possibility.

The Bad

Pat Narduzzi is widely regarded as one of the best defense minds in the country.  Consequently, Michigan State’s defense has been notoriously good since he arrived in East Lansing.  This year’s unit is led by dominant DE Shilique Calhoun, and it not only averages 3 sacks per game (more than Ohio State) but leads the nation in turnover margin.  Let’s just be realistic here; Hack is going to get sacked, he’s going to get banged up, and he’s going to throw an interception.  Accept this now.

As for personnel, WR Tony Lippett is one of the best receivers in the country and has already passed the 1,000 yd mark for the year on just 56 catches.  That’s almost 20 yds per catch!  RB Jeremy Langford is also extremely talented, even though he doesn't get as much press as Melvin Gordon, Ameer Abdullah, or Tevin Coleman.  Penn State’s outstanding rush defense avoided Gordon and Abdullah this year, but did handle themselves quite well against Coleman and Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott.  Langford is in the same class as all of those backs, so it will be interesting to see if he’ll be able to break out or become just another victim of Anthony Zettel and friends.

Then there’s arguably the worst part about this game… the Land Grant Trophy.  This monstrosity is so bad it’s apparently on its way out.  Our friends over at Penn Live have the full story, along with pictures!

The Story

It’s Senior Day in Beaver Stadium!  There’s always a lot to discuss with Senior Day because it’s not just about the senior football players.  It’s an entire celebration of all the students who make gameday possible and will be contributing one last time.  Members of the cheerleading squad, dance team, and of course the Blue Band will all be honored in special ways throughout the weekend.  We’ll start, though, by discussing the football team.  Now, I’ll let Black Shoe Diaries do most of grunt work about these guys via their wonderful Film Room series (Part I and Part II).  But I did want to mention who received senior superlative awards as voted on by the team:

- S Ryan Keiser is beloved by teammates in large part because he has the most school spirit.

- K Sam Ficken, with his business degree and impressive internship resume, is the most likely to end up on Wall Street.

- LB Mike Hull is considered the best leader, despite his usually quite demeanor.

- RB Bill Belton's excellent fashion sense got him labeled best dressed.

- OL Miles Dieffenbach's outgoing personality earned him most talkative and most likely to end up on a reality show.

- DE Brad Bars narrowly beat Mike Hull for best fisherman.

The other big story (mostly because of my personal connection with it) is Senior Day for the Blue Band, and specifically their director, Dr. O. Richard “Dick” Bundy.  Dr. Bundy's last game is best summed up by the myriad articles already written on the subject, so I won't necessarily go into it.  Here, here, and here are three of the best I found to help those not in the know understand Dr. Bundy's incredible impact on the Penn State community.  I've mentioned before here on the blog that I was in the Blue Band for all 4 years of my collegiate experience.  Being in Blue band provided me with life long friendships, once in a lifetime opportunities, and of course, the chance to perfect my craft in front of 100,000 screaming fans 7 Saturdays each year.  It was, quite simply, one of the most incredible things I've ever done, and is almost single-handedly responsible for causing my current love affair with Penn State football.  You see, when your winter vacation plans hinge on how the football team is doing in a particular year, you start to pay attention more closely.  So please join me in congratulating Dr. Bundy on a great career and saying farewell one final time!

The Prediction

Michigan State are 13.5 point favorites, and that’s unfortunately accurate to what will most likely happen.  I really do hope we beat the spread, but I'm by no means anticipating a Penn State victory.  Christian Hackenberg will throw a TD but will offset it with an INT.  Somebody might even fumble as the offense isn't able to score enough points to keep things competitive.  The defense will play like they have all season, and I'm anticipating an INT of their own, but not nearly enough to eek out a victory.  Even with a freezing cold Senior Day crowd on hand, the Blue and White just can't get it done.  Michigan State wins, 24 - 10.

Alright, that will do it for my final prediction of the year.  Make sure to stop on over to my Facebook page if you like what I'm doing.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus to keep up with all things Penn State Football, and as always, go State!