This week the Nittany Lions travel to Memorial Stadium in Champaign, IL to take on the Fighting Illini of Illinois. The game kicks off at noon (11am for the poor folks in Champaign) and will air on ESPN2. I'll be blunt, Illinois is not a good football team. In fact they're arguably worse than Temple and only slightly better than UMass, both teams Penn State has already beaten in convincing fashion. Their record stands at 4-6 with only 1 Big Ten win, albeit an impressive upset victory over currently ranked Minnesota. That's only the 2nd Big Ten win in Illinois coach Tim Beckman's entire tenure, and that pretty much sums up why he's on one of the hottest seats in college football. A loss against Penn State would eliminate Illinois from qualifying for a bowl game and basically ensure his imminent unemployment status. Enough about Illinois' crappy coach, let's get to the breakdown!
The Good
Due to injuries, Illinois has been forced to use 2 QBs this season and neither has been particularly effective. Although Wes Lunt has the physical tools, he just doesn't have the players around him to live up to his potential. Dual-threat Riley O'Toole, on the other hand, isn't a good enough passer to make the big plays. The Illini have also used 2 kickers who have gone a combined 2 for 6 on the year. Good job fellas. Meanwhile, we have Mr Automatic Sam Ficken, so if the game comes down to FGs, it won't even be close.
Our offense will line up across from one of the worst defenses in college football. Illinois currently has the 115th ranked rush defense in the country (dead last in the Big Ten), meaning Bill Belton and Akeel Lynch should have one of their easier outings. This should hold especially true behind an offensive line that's finally at full strength with Miles Dieffenbach and Donovan Smith. On defense, thanks to James Franklin's injury policy, we'll have to wait until kickoff to see if Trevor Williams will suit up at CB. If not, we'll get to see the electric freshmen duo of Grant Haley and Christian Campbell again and find out whether or not their amazing performance against Temple was just a fluke. Overall, Penn State's defense should be just as amazing as they've been all year. Seriously, if you're still doubting these guys by this point, why don't you check (the stats) yourself before you wreck yourself.
The Bad
Let's see, it's a road game, so that's always a challenge. But Memorial Stadium isn't exactly one of the more intimidating venues around, especially when their team sucks, at 11am local time, in late November. Additionally, Penn State has already clinched it's spot in the post season, while Illinois needs to win out if they hope to even sniff a bowl game. Maybe that will be motivation enough for them to rally the troops and pull the upset. I wouldn't count on it, though.
One name to watch out for is freshman WR Mike Dudek. He currently has 787 yds this season. Although he's not terribly effective when Riley O'Toole is in the game, when former 4-star pocket passer Wes Lunt is playing (which he will be on Saturday), Dudek can be a serious weapon. Lunt comes to Illinois by way of Oklahoma State where he played as a true freshman. James Franklin actually admitted in his press conference earlier this week that he heavily recruited Lunt while he was the head coach at Vanderbilt and knows just how dangerous the QB can be when not hampered by injuries. Nevertheless, expect Bob Shoop to have our secondary more than prepared.
The Story
When Beckman first took the job at Illinois, Penn State was right in the middle of the Sandusky scandal. The NCAA had just handed down their sanctions against PSU and players were now free to leave without penalty. Although a number of schools were more than willing to bolster their own rosters by jumping at the chance to steal Penn State's talent, they were at least quasi-professional about it. Illinois, meanwhile, demonstrated a particularly brazen and unsportsmanlike approach to their "recruitment" efforts. In total they brought 8 coaches to University Park and were anything but subtle as they openly harassed players outside their classrooms and dorms. A few days later at Big Ten media days, Michael Mauti let his feelings be known, and when it was time to actually play the Illini, he raised hell! 2 interceptions and a whole lot of pain later, Mauti and the Nittany Lions walked out of memorial Stadium with a decisive victory and the sweet taste of revenge still on their lips. Oh, but the best part of the whole ordeal was that after all that effort and damage to Beckman's reputation, he only managed to flip 1 backup player who frankly wasn't very good to begin with. Moral of this story? Kharma's a bitch... hear that NCAA?
The Prediction
For some strange reason Penn State is only favored by 7 points. That just seems low given how bad Illinois has been. However, given our offensive struggles even against poor defenses, this particular Penn State squad most likely isn't routing any Big Ten team, even the awful ones, so maybe that's what Vegas is thinking. So what will happen? Christian Hackenberg continues to struggle, but does technically improve from last week. He gets his TEs involved a little more and Jesse James scores a TD. The running game picks up where they left off last week as Bill Belton scores a TD too. And James Franklin unleashes the Ficken at least twice just to rub it in Beckman's stupid face how terrible his own kickers are. On defense, senior Mike Hull still remembers what Beckman's staff tried to do 2 years ago and does his best Mike Mauti impression, obliterating the Illini offense for 15 tackles and a fumble recovery after a monster hit. Someone on defense even scores a TD. In fact, I'm actually going to go out on a limb here and say our defense pitches a shutout. Lions win, 27-0, because yeah, let's go with that.
Alright that should do it for my prediction. I'm really trying to keep my new Facebook page up to date with all the latest news and notes on Penn State football, so be sure to head on over there and give me a like or even share it with all your friends. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus where I attempt in vein to live tweet most games, and as always, go State!
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