The Penn State Nittany Lions are currently in the middle of a 4-game losing streak and hope to stop the bleeding this week as they travel to Bloomington, IN to take on the Indiana Hoosiers (a nickname that's literally defined as "a person from Indiana"). The game kicks off at noon on the Big Ten Network.
Before we begin today, I wanted to give a non-football update because it was a really big week in off-the-field Penn State news. Now I'm not going to go into this very much here because this is exclusively a football blog. However, for anyone out there who is still upset about the entire Jerry Sandusky mess and its impact on Penn State's previously pristine reputation, or who thinks that Joe Paterno was denied due process and unfairly thrown under the bus by the media for ratings, or most importantly is angry that the NCAA completely overstepped their authority in handing down sanctions on the football program for a decidedly criminal matter involving a former Penn State employee... well, let's just say a few quick Google searches about what's transpired over the past few days will most likely leave you smiling ear to ear. OnwardState.com broke much of the news this week, so I'm more than happy to plug them as an excellent source for what went down. Here, here, here, and here are good examples. Also, check out this piece from Lions247.
With that out of the way, let's get to football with this week's breakdown!
The Good
It's true, Indiana's offense is definitely better than Penn State's; but what team's offense isn't at this point? However, Indiana has been hit hard by the injury bug of late, especially at QB. Consequently, 3rd stringer Zander Diamont has been thrust into action, and he's managed a total of 35 yds passing in his last two games. But it gets better! He's also averaging... wait for it... 1 yd per pass attempt. Seriously. To put that into perspective, Penn State's atrocious running game (which has improved from dead last to fourth from last in the country) is currently averaging 2 yds per rush attempt, and that statistic has most of Nittany Nation panicking. Just imagine how Hoosier fans feel about their passing game! So yeah, good luck throwing the ball against shut-down CB Jordan Lucas, and surprise freshman sensation Marcus Allen. This could get ugly.
Things don't get much better for the Hoosiers on defense where a historically bad group is displaying a particularly spectacular brand of awful this season. Statistically speaking, this will be the single worst pass defense Christian Hackenberg will face all year, and might provide the first legitimate chance for him to throw more TDs than INTs in a conference game (something he hasn't managed to do yet). If there's one defense out there that can make Penn State's offense look competent and give them some confidence moving forward, it's these guys.
So far this season, outside of a shocking upset on the road at then #18 Missouri, Indiana has only managed to beat FCS team Indiana State, and Sun Belt Conference punching bag North Texas. And yes, that means they have yet to win a Big Ten game this season; although we're not much better having only beaten Rutgers. Couple that with the fact that the Hoosiers have only ever beaten Penn State once, and you have a recipe for the easiest PSU win since mid-September.
The Bad
Just like for the Akron and UMass games, there's thankfully not a whole lot of bad to report, at least from a player perspective. However, the one weapon Indiana does have could prove to be the best all around player Penn State has face this year - Tevin Coleman. Indiana's star RB is absolutely ridiculous and basically the only saving grace on an otherwise terrible team. He's currently 3rd in the nation in total rushing with 1,300 yds (an insane 8 yd per carry average) and first nationally in yds per game with 162. So far he's managed to somehow stand out in a conference that also features potential All-American RBs Ameer Abdullah at Nebraska, and Melvin Gordon at Wisconsin. Our buddies over at OnwardState have you covered per usual with this nice piece on Coleman.
Outside of personnel, there are a few other things to be worried about with this matchup. First of all, it's a road game, which should always give teams pause. This is actually the second year in a row that Penn State will be traveling to Indiana (thanks Big Ten expansion and reshuffling of schedules!) and last year, the Lions arrogantly waltzed into Memorial Stadium before getting smashed 44-24, mostly on the back of costly turnovers. If you're a masochist, you can relive that terrible day with my Wrap Up post from last season. But it's not just the tricky road environment. The once unflappable Christian Hackenberg has been forced into bed habits and even worse decisions all season long, and although an inexperienced and undermanned offensive line shoulders much of the blame, Hack's emotional outbursts and obvious skepticism of the new coaching staff are looking like serious problems. Remember, though, that this is a sophomore who probably shouldn't be charged with leading a team in the first place. Unfortunately, sanctions and natural attrition have forced James Franklin's hand. Christian needs to step up and realize that it's much nobler to rise to the challenge in these kinds of situations, rather than sulk and blame others. Franklin said in his Tuesday press conference that he had a long, productive conversation this week with Hackenberg and they're both ready to move forward. I hope he's right.
The Story
This one is easy. The big story, as I've already alluded to, is Indiana's RB Tevin Coleman verses Penn State's #1 ranked rush defense. Coleman hasn't faced a defense even remotely close to what he'll see on Saturday. Similarly, Penn State has been great against mediocre to good competition, but Coleman is on a completely different level right now. Personally I give the advantage to the defense because Indiana's passing attack is so poor that PSU will be able to stack the box with 7 or even 8 defenders and stonewall the rushing attack dead in its tracks. As for the other matchup, everyone knows that Indiana's defense sucks, as does Penn State's offense, so you're only hurting yourself if you pay too much attention to that aspect of the game.
The only other story I can find in this game is simply a revenge factor from last year's humiliating defeat. Any Nittany Lion players who lived through that game will hopefully come out looking for redemption and a chance to start a new streak against the hapless Hoosiers.
The Prediction
So, what's going to happen? Well, the Nittany Lions are favored by 7 points, on the road, which means it's really more like 10 on a neutral field. As confident as I feel about this game, that same confidence has gotten me into trouble over the past 6 weeks. I think we get more of the same this week: an incredible defensive effort that keeps a pitiful offense in the game. Either way, it's going to be low scoring. Hackenberg should have some success against this defense, including a TD pass to Hamilton. The running game improves slightly as Akeel Lynch continues to take on more of the load. Sam Ficken hits 3 more FGs and is once again a strong candidate for Special Teams Player of the Week. On defense, Mike Hull goes back to leading the team in tackles, but Marcus Allen is a close second. Zettel and Barnes each have sacks and Jordan Lucas gets an interception that puts the game away for good. Penn State finally snaps their losing streak 16-10.
Plug time! I don't always mention this, but feel free to email your questions and/or comments to PSUOptimus@gmail.com. Check me out on Facebook and like my page. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!
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