Week 9 Prediction

Things are getting crazy here in Philadelphia as the College Gameday hype train has made its first ever stop in the "city of brotherly love" and taken over Market Street along the Independence Mall.  Temple is basically the only good sports team in the city right now, so all eyes are on the undefeated Owls as they take on Notre Dame this Saturday night in prime time at Lincoln Financial Field.  But we're here to talk about Penn State!

Yes, it's Halloween week(end) and I wish you and yours a happy and safe one.  Dress up, eat candy, and of course, enjoy as many college football games as you can!  The Nittany Lions get us started as they return home to Beaver Stadium for a noon kick off against the Fighting Illini of Illinois on ESPN2.  Now, the Illini do have orange as one of their primary school colors, so at the very least they'll look festive, but it's certainly not going to help them against Bob Shoop's "Wild Dog" defense and Christian Hackenberg's newly unleashed "Flight Squad" receiving corps.  This match up has a fairly bitter recent history, so let's dive right into it with this week's breakdown!

The Good
Penn State has the Big Ten's worst redzone defense, giving up points on 21 out of 23 tries so far this season; 16 of those were for TDs.  HOWEVER, Illinois has the conference's worst redzone offense, only managing points on 19 out of 26 attempts, and managing TDs on just 13 of those chances.  In front of a (hopefully well-costumed) home crowd, I expect the defense to win out in the end.

The Illini also don't have a very intimidating defense, especially when it comes to pressuring the QB, which bodes well for Hackenberg.  With the emergence of a reinvigorated WR unit, the PSU offense may be able to force opponents into the same conundrum Maryland found themselves in last week: stack the box against Barkley and get burned over the top, or defend the pass and get run all over.

On the injury front, it looks like Illinois will be without WR Mike Dudek, who tore apart the Nittany Lions' secondary in last year's loss.  Their starting RB Josh Ferguson will also likely be out of Saturday's contest due to injury.

Illinois will also be without their coach, although not due to injury.  In what has become an eerie trend, Penn State will face off against an interim coach (they've already played against interim coaches with Rutgers and Maryland this season).  Former head man Tim Beckman (who we'll get to in The Story) was fired a week before the season started, stemming from an internal investigation by Illinois into Beckman's handling of player injuries.  Now, his former offensive coordinator, Bill Cubit steps in and has done a commendable job so far.  Unlike last week against Maryland, however, Cubit has been on the sidelines all season long, so there's film on his tendencies and game plans.  I don't expect Penn State to look nearly as unprepared as they did against the Terps.

The Bad
Wes Lunt, a transfer QB from Oklahoma State, is the offensive name to watch out for.  Lunt is basically the poor man's Christian Hackenberg.  Unlike Hack, though, he has thrived in Bill Cubit's pro-style system and has much better numbers pretty much across the board.  He also has help on the outside in WR Geronimo Allison, a talented player who can stretch the field.

On the other hand, I'm sure the Penn State defense is happy to finally get a break from mobile QBs.  Pro style systems are what they were designed to shut down.  Interestingly enough, James Franklin thinks his defense has gotten tired chasing all those running QBs around.  He'll be scaling back practice this week in hopes of getting "fresher legs" under his players.  Still, time off can sometimes lead to lazy play, so don't be surprised if you see the defense looking sluggish coming out of the gates on Saturday.

Illinois' defense plays in a 4-2-5 package, dropping an extra man into the secondary to defend against the pass.  DE Dawuane Smoot is their sack leader with just 5 sacks on the year, but against a line that's missing RT Andrew Nelson due to injury, he could become a threat to watch out for.  If they commit LBs to the box to stop Barkley, that extra man in the backfield gives them an edge Maryland didn't have and they could hold off the passing attack too.  That could spell doom for the Penn State offense.

The Story
Former head coach Tim Beckman was a complete asshole.  There's really no other way to put it.  Black Shoe Diaries did a good job, as always, of summing up much of what made Beckman so vile and hated.  Their parent organization, SB Nation, also did a fantastic retrospect on some of ol' Timmy's "finest" moments.  In the interest of time, I'll summarize quickly.  Beckman tried to poach PSU players at the height of the Jerry Sandusky scandal.  He then topped that by abusing his players emotionally, and forcing them to play while injured through intimidation and coercion.  He's a piece of trash, and the Illinois program is much better off without him.  Now we can all play a nice, respectful football game without seething about the man on the other sideline.

The other story behind this game is a little more positive (at least for Penn State fans).  4 years ago, almost to the day, Illinois came to Beaver Stadium and walked out on the losing end of a very close game (won on a last second missed FG).  More importantly, that victory gave Joe Paterno his record-setting 409th career win!  It would unfortunately also be his last game ever as head coach.  Now, 4 years later, we again play Illinois, and I'm hoping the results are basically the same.  JoePa's achievement will stand for a VERY long time, trust me, and it may never be broken.  To coach for that long, at one school, and at such a high level is almost unfathomable.

The Prediction
So in honor of Joe Paterno, I'm predicting that Penn State wins with a score of 40-9, collecting exactly 409 yds of total offense.  If that doesn't happen, though...

I actually predict that Hackenberg will have a good, but not great day.  He'll give Chris Godwin and Daesean Hamilton their touches, and both will score.  Saquon Barkley has a bounce back game, going for 150 yds and a TD.  On defense, Marcus Allen and Jordan Lucas have big days against a pass heavy attack, but it's John Reid who gets his third INT of the year.  Carl Nassib picks up 2 more sacks for his stat sheet, and Austin Johnson forces a fumble.  Penn State proves to be too much for the boys from Campaign, and they continue their home undefeated streak.  Final score, 24-10.

That will do it for tonight.  Be a sport and root for little brother in their game this week too.  Check back in on Monday for my weekly wrap up. In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Week 8 Grades

As a way of keeping you informed about the larger world of college football, I feel I should briefly mention all the coaching moves across the country of late.  In the Big Ten alone, Rutgers has suspended their head coach for another 2 games, and there's no telling what kind of leash he'll be on when he comes back.  Illinois and Maryland both fired their head men, and Minnesota's Jerry Kill retired earlier today for health reasons.  Former Penn State player, Al Golden, is out at Miami for poor performance on the field, while USC's Steve Sarkisian was fired mostly for his performances off it.  Then there's a man so legendary he's simply known as "the old ball coach."  South Carolina's Steve Spurrier shocked everyone when he suddenly retired two weeks ago at the mid-season mark.  Yes the coaching carousel spins ever onward, and we still got 5 weeks left!

With all that out of the way, there was a Penn State game this past Saturday!  The Nittany Lions were the victors, and they are now officially bowl eligible!  So let's get right to it and roll out some grades!

Offense

QB: (A) I already know this one’s going to be controversial, but hear my out.  Hackenberg broke TWO all-time Penn State records in the same game, and that’s awesome!  He also threw for 315 yds and 3 TDs in just 13 completions while once again going interception-free!  So what if he’s only good at slinging it down the field?  That kind of offense is exciting and it won Brett Favre (among others) a Super Bowl.  Besides, he's protecting the football and finally starting to put it in the endzone.  Hackenberg had TD passes of 37, 20 and 27 yds, to go with his completions of 40, 38, and 31 yds.  Those are the big plays we've been missing.  If Barkley can get back in a groove, there's no telling how far this offense can go!

OL: (B-) As it feels like we always do, let's start with the 4 sacks, which is unfortunately good for this squad.  I have to say, as the season goes on, more and more of those sacks are on Hack for holding the ball too long and/or not throwing it away.  So they get a slight pass there.  I can’t complain too much about the pass blocking with the numbers we put up, although Hack had a lot of pressure throughout the game.  Instead, they earn their minus due to their run blocking.  When Saquon Barkley can't go anywhere, you're doing something wrong!  Speaking of which...

RB: (D) To put it bluntly, the running game was not good this week.  Barkley only had 65 yds (and a gimme TD) on a sizable 20 carries, while Akeel Lynch didn’t do anything except drop an outstanding pass from Geno Lewis.  Nick Scott was effective in the return game, but as a RB, his single yard left much to be desired.  Granted, Maryland's game plan was to focus solely on stopping the run, but let's hope this doesn't become a trend.

WR: (A+) This was one of the best receiving games that I can remember in the past 10 years.  Absolutely everyone got involved, and almost everything they did was highlight reel worthy!  Chris Godwin, however, was the king of the night, collecting an astounding 135 yds and a TD on just 4 catches!  Deasean Hamilton added 96 yds and a TD of his own on 5 catches.  Saeed Blacknall and Geno Lewis each had a grab of 38 and 27 yds respectively, with Geno also scoring a TD on arguably the best catch all game.  We knew the talent was there, and we finally got to see it on display.

TE: (D) We get it, Bill O’Brien is gone.  That's no excuse for how these guys are playing.  They're still pretty awful at blocking and Mike Gesicki has some of the worst hands I've ever seen.  I cringe whenever Hackenberg looks towards #88.  And 5th year senior Kyle Carter, despite having a catch, seems to have lost his QB's confidence a long time ago.  This position went from a strength to a potential liability in one coaching change, and that's sad.

Defense

DL: (B+) Not their best game statistically, but stats don’t measure the pressure they put on QB Perry Hills.  In fact, both Evan Schwan and Austin Johnson had pass break ups from the line.  Speaking of Johnson, he continues his monster season with 9 tackles, and 1.5 for a loss.  Not far behind was fellow DT Anthony Zettel with 7 tackles and a sack.  Carl Nassib only had 4 tackles and they came late in the game, but the nation's sack leader picked up another one up against the Terrapins.  The kind of pressure they bring usually causes QBs to make a lot of mistakes, but it just never happened with Hills.  Sure, he turned the ball over 4 times, but he also gained 381 all-purpose yds and scored 2 TDs, while leading Maryland in both rushing and passing in the process.

LB: (C+) As a whole, the defense really struggles with running QBs, especially on the road (and luckily, we don’t really play any more of them this season).  The sad truth is, when you can't defend against mobile QBs, it usually means there's an issue with your LB corps.  Sure they got a lot of tackles, but as I just mentioned, Perry Hills got a ton a yds.  They tended to take bad angles and just couldn't bring him down on first contact in most cases.  Either way, Troy Reeder actually led the team with 10 tackles, and Jason Cabinda wasn't far behind with 8.  Brandon Bell got 6 tackles, and 3.5 of those were for a loss, including a sack.  Jake Cooper and Manny Bowen each had 2 in backup duty.  These guys are young; wait until they're talented AND experienced!

DB: (A) This is quickly becoming the strength of the defense.  Marcus Allen led the group with 9 tackles, including a sack, and a fumble recovery.  Fellow safety Jordan Lucas had 7 tackles to go with a pass breakup.  CBs Grant Haley, John Reid, and Trevor Williams had a combined 7 tackles, but more impressively Reid forced a fumble while both Haley and Williams grabbed interceptions.  They fly around the field and shut entire receiving corps down in most games.  Like the LBs they're incredibly young but already performing at a high level.  It's just going to get better in the future.

Special Teams

K: (C+) It's becoming predictable that Joey Julius will boot at least one kick off out of bounds per game.  Sure enough, he kicked one right into Testudo the Terrapin's hands this time.  He also missed 1 of his 2 FGs.  But he did hit all 4 of his extra points!  Sadly, the most entertaining kicker in all of college football is sinking into mediocrity.  Next year we have the nation's #1 kicking recruit coming in.  It will be interesting to see if Julius can hold him off.

P: (B-) Danny Pasquariello did a decent job at keeping the ball away from Will Likely.  On the other hand, despite a 55 yarder to start, he only averaged 39 yds per punt.  This position is still a dumpster fire.  Like at place kicker, we have the nation's #1 punter coming in next year.  Let's just say, he can't get here soon enough!

This week's bonus grade is a little R E S P E C T from and for interim head coach Mike Locksley and his entire Maryland team.  They showed a lot more class this year than last year and if they keep it up, and keep playing us close like this, they might just get that rivalry they crave so much.

Alright boys and girls, that will do it for Maryland week.  On Friday I'm going to hopefully put my Prediction post up a little early so I can head into the city (Philadelphia) to prepare for College Gameday!  That's right, Temple (1 of only 2 teams to beat PSU this year) is 7-0 for the first time in school history, ranked #22, and taking on the #9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  So of course, the Gameday crew is crashing Independence Mall and I'm going to be right in the thick of it.  This city hasn't been this excited since... well, like a week ago because the Pope visited... but still, there's a buzz in the air around here and it's palpable!  I know I don't need to tell you by now, but in the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Week 8 Wrap Up

In football, when something negative happens to a team (say, firing your head coach mid-season), things can really only go one of two ways.  Either chaos reigns and things completely unravel, or the players rally around each other and play inspired football.  Maryland chose the latter on Saturday.  There is honor in that, as there was in every post-sanction Penn State team.  Couple it with actually shaking our hands to start the game, and I think the Terps are on the road to winning me back.  In the end, the Nittany Lions traveled to a very Penn State friendly M&T Bank Stadium and pulled out a 31-30 squeaker.  They improve to 6-2 and are officially bowl eligible!!!

The big news came mid-way through the game that Christian Hackenberg had surpassed Zach Mills in Penn State's record books as the all-time yardage, and later completions leader.  Mix in what he’ll add on in the final four games (and bowl game!) and those records should stand the test of time.

As for the game, remember how I said having a new coach means your opponent can’t anticipate the game plan?  Well that is exactly what happened in this one.  Maryland came out with a nothing-to-lose mentality and forced Penn State to adjust on the fly.  Post-game, Hackenberg encapsulated the experience saying, “Our receiving corps, our line, they battled through a lot of stuff today.  A lot of different looks that we hadn’t really seen or expected them to do as much of, they came out and threw the kitchen sink at us and we were able to react and make plays and do what we needed to do to get the job done.”

Maryland started with the ball and began a vicious cycle that would play out all game long.  They drove down the field with surprising ease against an outstanding defense, only to turn the ball over at the last minute.  On the opening drive QB Perry Hills was picked off by CB Grant Halley.  Penn State would prevent the score but start their opening drive on their own 4 yd line.  A typical 3-and-out brought out today's punter, Danny Pasquariello.  For the most part he wouldn’t shank any punts this game.  More importantly, an extremely dangerous Will Likely was held to an average of only 8 yds per return and kept largely in check.

Back on defense, I was reminded how much fun these guys are to watch.  LB Brandon Bell burst through an interesting WR diamond formation and destroyed the ball carrier for a loss.  On the next play, S Marcus Allen came flying in from the backfield to nail the QB before he knew what was coming.  Their electric play made for an easy punt.  The offense was not having as much luck.

It became clear that Maryland’s defensive strategy was to focus solely on shutting down the rushing attack, pass coverage be damned.  Speaking after the game, James Franklin said, “Usually, when you play someone like that and you burn them a couple times deep, they stop.  And they didn’t.  Good for them.”  As he alluded to, the Terps would pay for their gamble… over and over and over again.  It didn't start out well, though.  Despite the soft coverage Hackenberg began 0-4 and fumbled a handoff to Barkley that was thankfully recovered by Brian Gaia.  Result: punt.  In the red zone, Perry Hills fumbled as well and Marcus Allen recovered.  Hack finally decided to take a shot, 38 yds to Daesean Hamilton!  Then he tried again, this time 40 yds to Chris Godwin who got the ball inside the 5 yd line.  An inevitable walk-in TD by Barkley gave Penn State their first of many leads.

Behind a 48 yd completion, Hills bowled over Marcus Allen to tie things up.  Penn State punted and this time with the help of Will Likely, now playing offense, the Terps were immediately back in PSU territory.  It would luckily end in a missed 51 yarder by the usually automatic Brad Craddock.  Barkley fumbled it back to Maryland who gave Craddock another shot.  He wouldn't miss this time and his team had their first lead of the day.  This continued with another awful offensive series by the Lions, followed by a FG to make it 13-7.

Now down by 6, Hackenberg decided to see if those earlier deep balls were just a fluke… spoiler alert: they weren’t.  This time, Saeed Blacknall was the recipient of a 38 yarder.  To that point in the game, Hack had only completed three passes, but none was shorter than 38 yds, and all three were to different WRs.  So what did they decide to do next?  Bomb it 37 yds to Chris Godwin for the score of course!  The Penn State offense was starting to look like Babe Ruth - either they hit the long ball, or they struck out.  And just like the Great Bambino, it sure was fun to watch!

A scary moment happened on the next PSU drive.  Hackenberg came up limping after taking a shot to the leg he injured last week.  Trace McSorely entered the game for one play, and was fittingly sacked.  Hack came back in on 3rd and 15 to promptly find Daesean Hamilton for 25 yds.  A 40 yd FG by Joey Julius would give Penn State a 17-13 lead into halftime.  Following the break, another scary moment as RT Andrew Nelson went down.  He was emotional, but walking under his own power as he went to the locker room.  He would not return.  I’ll keep you updated on his status.

It has become clear this season that Penn State’s stellar defense does not play well against mobile QBs.  Almost entirely on the back of Perry Hills running and throwing, the Terps got into the red zone where their RB changed things up and took it in to regain the lead, 20-17.  With the running game still finding their feet Hackenberg again went to the air, hitting Chris Godwin on a cut back for 31 yds.  Hamilton followed that up with a 20 yd TD dive to give the lead right back to Penn State!  Maryland answered with another Perry Hills-fueled drive down the field, finishing it off with a dart to the side of the endzone.  Heading into the 4th quarter, they were in command 27-24.

Brandon Polk's jet sweep got a 1st down and set up a 27 yd bomb to Geno Lewis, over a defender’s head, for a TD and arguably the best catch of the day.  Another fragile lead would continue to be tested.  The defense held Maryland to a FG, but a roughing penalty gave them a fresh set of downs.  No matter, they simply did it again.  The score now stood at 31-30, but the craziness was just beginning.

Clinging to the slimmest of leads, Nick Scott fumbled the return and things looked desperate.  As luck would have it, Perry Hills was hit as he threw and fumbled too.  Even better, DE Garrett Sickels picked up the loose ball and took it down to the Maryland 28.  However, Joey Julius missed his FG attempt wide left.  On 4th and 2, Hills heaved it up only to have it fall into the waiting arms of CB Trevor Williams.  That was followed up by a Hackenberg fumble giving Maryland the ball inside PSU territory.  A sack by Carl Nassib inspired a defensive stand, but there was still too much time left on the clock.  Inexplicably, Hack threw it on 3rd down, stopping the clock with a minute and a half left.  Maryland still had hope, but it was gashed when a tipped pass was snatched up by S Malik Golden, sealing the victory for Penn State!

Big Ten Network called this game “a fun back-and-forth affair.”  For fans of either team, it was a heart attack-inducing stressfest that featured 7 lead changes and 8 turnovers.  Still, in some ways the karma was almost worth it.  After losing at home by one point last year to a classless Randy Edsall squad, Penn State turned the tables and won by a single point this year to a team that was fittingly rendered Randy Edsall-less just a week ago.  Interim head coach Mike Locksley and James Franklin worked together at Maryland back in the day, and the respect shone through on Saturday.  In the end, I’m ALMOST willing to start calling this a *gulp* rivalry… but not quite yet.

How'd I do?  I thought we would win easily, so I was way wrong there.  Barkley surprisingly struggled.  But what matters is we got the win and we're going to a bowl game!

Alright, that will do it.  Check back on Wednesday for the grades.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Week 8 Prediction

This week, the Nittany Lions Roadshow continues with a trip to visit the Maryland Terrapins (that means turtle, in case you didn't know).  The game will technically be a neutral site contest, as it will be played at M&T Bank Stadium, home of the Baltimore Ravens.  Kick off is set for 3:30 pm on ESPN.  The "Terps" will be wearing alternate throw back uniforms for the game, commemorating the time they beat Penn State in 1961 (that's the only other time they've beaten us outside of last year in 38 tries).  That's kind of a weird thing to brag about if you ask me, but hey, to each his own.  One other important thing I should probably mention going into this one is that Maryland fired their head coach, Randy Edsall, last week.  Bon voyage! (more on him later).

Generally speaking, this should be an easy one.  I do not, as Maryland fans like to say, "fear the turtle."  I'm actually quite fond of turtles.  In fact, I have 2 red-eared sliders named Hackenberg and Franklin.  Here they are chilling in Paterno Pond... yes, I'm serious about all of this.  They live in my DIY indoor turtle pond and they root for Penn State every game day!

Traitors to their own species...

Anyway, let's get to the break down!

The Good

Christian Hackenberg needs less than 100 yds to become Penn State's all-time leading passer.  So he'll have motivation to have a good game.  We also have a healthy Saquon Barkley, which is pretty awesome.  And we still have our amazing defense!

So far this season, Maryland has played three different QBs, and all three have thrown at least one interception.  Case in point, current backup Caleb Rowe has gone 18-54 with 0 TDs and 7 INTs since a win over South Florida.  Not exactly intimidating.

The truth is, this Terrapin defense is so bad we're basically guaranteed 4 TDs, and their offense is nowhere near talented enough, especially at positions like WR, to score 4 of their own against our stout defense.

I know this "good" section looks a little thin, but that's because the good news is this simple: Penn State is the much better team.

The Bad

Perry Hills is Maryland's starting QB.  He's not very good at throwing the ball, to be honest, but he's a decent runner (something our defense struggled with against Temple, Indiana, and Ohio State).  Hills is averaging 8 yds/carry and scored 2 rushing TDs vs Ohio State two weeks ago.

Our punting is atrocious right now and it's really hurting our ability to win games.  Neither Chris Gulla nor Danny Pasquariello has been able to make any kind of meaningful difference in the field position battle.  Moreover, they both have a tendency to shank punts and offer up very favorable starting field position to their opponents!  But it gets worse.  Will Likely is the star to watch for the Terps.  He's a CB that will look to pick off an often flustered Hackenberg.  He's also a monster as a punt returner and if he gets his hands on the ball on special teams, it could be lights out.  Also watch out for Yannick Ngakoue, a DE with 6.5 sacks so far this year.  He'll be playing opposite Paris Palmer and provides a key match-up to watch.

The Terps are coming off a bye week and are under the impression that this is a rivalry game, so they'll come out fired up.  It's also Mike Lockley's first game as head coach.  Although this might cause a lack of execution for Maryland, it might also serve as a rallying point, and PSU doesn't know his tendencies.  So there's the possibility he catches us off guard with strange new wrinkles.

Last year's hero, Maryland kicker Brad Craddock is back and better than ever.  If this becomes a low scoring game with lots of FGs, the Terrapins will have the advantage.

The Story

When it comes to rivalries, I think they generally need to have two key components: 1) competitive results between the two programs, and 2) a sense of mutual respect.  In other words, it's possible to hate someone with class.  This is the case with a school like Ohio State.  We've been competitive with them in the past, and although we don't exactly care for them, we're capable of competing against each other with dignity.

...And then there's the Maryland Terrapins.  Last season Maryland tried to show how much cooler and more badass than Penn State they think they are by refusing to shake hands with our captains at the pregame coin toss.  Whatever.  In a perfect world we would have beaten them and rubbed their faces in it.  This is not a fair world, however, and they won on a controversial last second FG, leaving them feeling justified in their classless behavior for an entire year.  Well listen up you sorry excuse for a football program!  Ever since you inexplicably fired your ACC Coach of the Year winner Ralph Friedgen and passed up on promoting then assistant coach James Franklin to be his successor, your football program has been a complete trainwreck.  Randy Edsall was hated by fans and players alike from day one, and after years of arrogantly defending his hire, you throw him out mid-season.  All this at a time when you have nothing meaningful to offer even the most underqualified coaching candidates.  Meanwhile, in spite of all that Under Armour money, you have mismanaged every facet of your athletic department (not just football) to the point of eliminating nearly a dozen varsity sports just to stay above water.  In more than a decade you have failed to achieve anything of merit as you sink deeper and deeper into an existence of futile irrelevance.  Enjoy that assholes.  If one school deserves it, it's you guys!

The Prediction

Penn State opens as an 8.5 point favorite.  That sounds a little low to me.  Then again, I have no respect at all for this Maryland team.  Hackenberg throws for 160 yds with 2 TDs, most likely to Godwin and Hamilton.  Saquon Barkley will have 200 yds and 2 TDs, while Joey Julius finishes up the scoring with a FG.  Carl Nassib has at least 2 sacks, while Marcus Allen leads the team in tackles.  John Reid picks off whoever is at QB to complete the embarrassment.  Final score 31-17 Penn State.  Bowl eligibility here we come!

Alright, that will do it for tonight.  I'll be at a cheesesteak festival in Philadelphia during the game, but I'll try to get updates on my phone.  Check back on Monday for my weekly wrap up.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Week 7 Grades

Losses are never fun, but they are understandable against the #1 team in the country.  Penn State suffered such a defeat on Saturday night in front of a prime time audience.  It was a game that began with such promise: a 5-game winning streak, a dominant defense, an improving offense, and a roster finally rebounding from the injury bug.  It would end in a humbling of the entire fanbase and flashbacks to the Temple game: 5 sacks, a flawed defense, complete stagnation on offense, and first stringers left in the game long after it ceased being competitive.  Time to find out where things went wrong, and where there's still some hope.  Let's roll out some grades!

Offense
QB: (C-) Christian Hackenberg (7-13 for 120 yds and 1 TD) actually had very comparable stats with OSU starter Cardale Jones (9-15 for 84 yds and 0 TD).  However, considering Ohio State has officially replaced Jones with JT Barrett moving forward, that's not exactly saying a lot.  The big news, though, was the gash on Hack's leg that caused him to limp for the entire 2nd half, and an apparent back injury suffered late in the game.  Per usual, James Franklin will not comment on injuries.  We'll find out on Saturday I guess.

OL: (C+) Did they give up 5 sacks? Yes.  Did the tackles, in particular, get pushed around by Joey Bosa and Co? Yes.  Are we a complete mess at guard? Absolutely!  Here's the thing, none of that matters.  As the year goes on, more and more of those sacks are on Hack for holding the ball too long.  Joey Bosa is a top 10 draft pick on a defensive line almost as good as ours.  Even the best offensive lines are bound to get pushed around a little.  And... actually there's no excuse for the situation at guard.  Either way, the big guys are markedly improved since Temple.  Running lanes are more open (or at least look that way thanks to Barkley), there's some semblance of a pocket on most plays, and the WRs have more time to get downfield.  The best team in the country presented a huge challenge for these guys, and they survived no worse for the wear.

RB: (A) Saquon Barkley, an 18 yr old true freshman, just showed up Ezekiel Elliott!  Seriously, he had 40 more yds on 1 fewer carries (and that's with his 30+ yd TD run wiped off the board)!  After the game, the cameras caught the two star RBs meeting at mid-field.  I don't know what Elliott said, but from his facial expression it seemed to be some form of, "damn kid, you got skills!"  We may lose Hackenberg at the end of this season, but we got Barkley for at least two more years!

WR: (B+) Chris Godwin (3 catches for 103 yds) has firmly staked his claim to the #1 WR spot, while Daesean Hamilton (2 catches for 13 yds and 1 TD) has quietly faded into second place.  That's not necessarily a bad thing, and the pair (both sophomores) should grow into a deadly combination by the time they leave Happy Valley.  Behind them is a log jam of different skill sets, from the lanky Juwaun Johnson and Geno Lewis, to the powerful Saeed Blacknall, and the speedy Brandon Polk and DeAndre Thompkins.  There's talent for days, and once the OL can give a QB enough time to distribute the ball, it's going to get real fun on game days!

TE: (F+) The plus is due to the return of Adam Breneman, who played about 6 snaps against the Buckeyes.  Unfortunately, his return was coupled with the loss of Kyle Carter to injury.  None of the TEs caught a pass, and Mike Gesicki continues to showcase the slipperiest hands in college football.  I love the kid's freakish athleticism, but wow, he sucks at catching the football.  It's times like these that I REALLY miss Bill O'Brien...

Defense
DL: (A+) Opposite a defensive line with an equal amount of NFL talent, Penn State's line shined brightest of all!  Carl Nassib continues to lead the nation in sacks, tackles for a loss, and forced fumbles!  Four PSU players, including both DEs Nassib and Garrett Sickels, got more tackles than OSU's leading tackler DE Joey Bosa.  The dynamic duo of Zettel and Johnson each collected 4 tackles as well as a combined 2 tackles for a loss and 2 pass break ups!  The announcers rightfully lavished them with praise all night and gave some publicity to their "Wild Dogs" nickname.  Even when the Lions aren't playing their best, this front four plays like gladiators!

LB: (B+) This unit is being held together with string.  Brandon Bell, Troy Reeder, and Jason Cabinda combined for 16 tackles and are playing well, but there is absolutely no one behind them.  As long as they stay healthy, they're strong enough to hang with the rest of the schedule.  The second string?  Not so much.

DB: (A) Jordan Lucas and Marcus Allen are machines, combining for 17 tackles (more than the entire LB corps).  Grant Haley and John Reid each had 4 tackles, but more importantly, (outside of Braxton Miller) they kept the Buckeye WRs in check.  The defensive back field is quickly becoming a strength for the team, and even more recruits are filing in behind them.

Special Teams
K: (A) Big Toe was back and hit a 33 yd FG and an extra point.  That FG served as the first points of the game and could have served as a serious momentum booster... if it weren't for Barkley's TD getting called back.  Oh well.

P: (F) I shared these stats in the wrap up but they bear repeating.  Ohio State only had to start inside their 25 twice, while Penn State did it 11 out of 12 times.  OSU got to start in PSU territory four times, the Lions didn't get that opportunity once.  James Franklin hinted at holding campus-wide tryouts for a new punter (an idea that has since been rescinded).  It's really gotten that bad.  This position is an unmitigated disaster, and it will cost us a few more games before it gets better.

Alright, that will do it for Ohio State.  Check back in on Friday for my prediction as the Nittany Lions travel to Baltimore for their "neutral site" game against Maryland.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  You can always submit questions or comments to PSUOptimus@gmail.com.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Week 7 Wrap Up

The Penn State faithful made their way over the western border of PA and into Columbus for a prime time showdown with the #1 team in the country.  After a double-overtime near miss against the Buckeyes last season, the Nittany Lions had high hopes of keeping up with Ohio State and maybe even pulling off the upset.  But alas, many of the same issues that have plagued these young cubs all year long were exploited as they fell to the defending champs, 38-10.

Some quick observations:
- The black uniforms vs white uniforms were AWESOME!
- Dark colored "outs" don't work; your fans are supposed to pop, not disappear into the night.
- The announcers, Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreet, have gigantic man crushes on Penn State's defensive line and could not stop gushing about them all night.
- We finally have our starting offensive line together again!  That would be: Palmer, Mahon, Mangiro, Gaia, Nelson.  It showed in the running game, not so much in the pass protection.

Injury update:
Basically everyone was back, including OL Angelo Mangiro and P Chris Gulla.  Now, I was anticipating Barkley's return, but Akeel Lynch too?  That was great!  Adam Breneman once again suited up but did not play.  The only new loss was Kyle Carter.  No word on his status.  Hackenberg would eventually gash his leg during the game, leading to a limp, and also suffer an unspecified back injury.  Hopefully we'll have (good) news on that later in the week.

Now, about the game...
Ok, so we lost.  We knew we were going to lose.  There was even the possibility that we'd lose big, and that's pretty much what happened.  However, the fact is we're still 5-2 with two relatively easy teams coming up next.  It's not the end of the world.  Still, in his parting post with Black Shoe Diaries, Devon Edwards does a wonderful job of summing up the futility of this game and this team (at least, from an offensive standpoint).  In so many words, bad play calling continues to ruin incredible raw talent, and we only have so much time to watch guys like Christian Hackenberg and Saquon Barkley.  These players deserve way better than John Donovan.

One of those players is Saquon Barkley.  Have you heard of this kid?  Because apparently he's really good!  So let's really start this wrap up with him.  Think about this: Barkley has now rushed for at least 100 yds in every game he's played in.  He currently has the 3rd (195 yds vs Rutgers) and 4th (194 yds vs Ohio State) best single-game rushing performances by a freshman in Penn State history!  Those two record setting games represent 2/3 of the total number of games he's ever suited up for as a Nittany Lion!  If he stays healthy and finishes the year, he is basically guaranteed to obliterate every freshman record that exists, plus some non-freshman records for good measure.  This is history in the making folks.

The Big Ten Network gave the team a D grade, probably because we lost and they have zero creativity.  Our boys played well and got beat by the #1 team in the country, at their place, in prime time, against essentially an NFL roster.  It happens.  They definitely didn't deserve a D, though, that just means you weren't paying attention.  The truth is Penn State would have needed a perfect game to win, while Ohio State only needed to be average.  Turns out they were better than average and we were far from perfect.  One nice consolation prize is that we still have the better defensive line, despite OSU having Larry Johnson as their defensive line coach these days.  Don't believe me?  Well Josh Moyer from ESPN breaks down the numbers (btw, Austin Ward's argument for Ohio State... isn't very persuasive).

More to the point, all those people saying Ohio State's offense was so much better, I strongly beg to differ.  When Cardale Jones was in at QB, the Buckeyes slogged along and looked lost.  Only when he was replaced with JT Barrett did they show any signs of life.  Chasing after Barrett and Ezekiel Elliott all game will wear down even the best defenses, as they did ours.  But lest we forget about all the help OSU received from the punters... on both teams.  Punting was the biggest difference in this game.

Ohio State only had to start a drive from inside their own 25 twice, and got to start in PSU territory no fewer than four times.  Conversely, Penn State had to start inside their own 25 on 11 of their 12 possessions, including four times inside their own 10!  Field position made the scoreboard look the way it did, not talent.  When you take that into account, the offensive stats between the two teams actually look quite similar.  Case in point, here are some stats I bet the media won't acknowledge: Barkley ran for 40 more yds than Elliott on 1 fewer carries (although JT Barrett did add 102 yds and 2 TDs on 12 carries).  Hackenberg went 7-13 for 120 yds and 1 TD, while his primary competition in the draft, Cardale Jones, went 9-15 for only 84 yds and 0 TDs.  Chris Godwin had 3 catches for a whopping 103 yds, while Ohio State's leading WR was former QB Braxton Miller who had 4 catches for only 33 yds.  My point is this, it's disingenuous to act like Ohio State put on a show and Penn State was terrible just because they had 38 points and we only had 10.  This was a nuanced game... and if the stupid refs had let that Saquon Barkley TD stand, the game would have been VERY different!  Again, not a win, but maybe we could've covered the spread!

*Side bar* Speaking of which, I've been reading everywhere that the holding call on Brian Gaia, which negated said TD run, was legitimate and blatant.  Well I went back and watched it and I call bullshit!  Holding is grabbing a guy's jersey from behind or holding his arms.  Gaia was face to face with his man and grabbing all shoulder pad, exactly as he was taught.  It had the makings of a textbook pancake block, was definitely NOT a hold, and the refs blew the call costing us a TD and momentum! #RantOver

Defensively, it really sucks that the streak of games holding opponents under 300 yds of offense was broken.  It's one thing if you play like crap and get exposed; it's a whole other thing to play at a high level only to have your punting game put you in bad situations.  Continuing with our theme, these guys deserve better.

Ok, time for a recap of all the action.  Things started off well enough.  Penn State won the coin toss and deferred to the 2nd half.  Ohio State immediately suffered a three-and-out, while Akeel Lynch picked up a 1st down on his first play.  Right after that, Chris Godwin caught a 45 yd bomb to get the Lions all the way to the Buckeye 20.  It would lead to a 33 yd Joey Julius FG and quiet the raucous home crowd.  Also, PSU was on the board first!

But in what would become an annoying trend, Barkley had to lead the charge out of Penn State’s own endzone.  With the help of some penalties (pass interference and unsportsmanlike conduct) they got out to mid-field.  Mike Gesicki continued to drop clutch passes, even when he was wide open, but momentum really swung when the refs negated an incredible Barkley TD run.  The drive would end in a sack and spell the end for any chance PSU had at an upset.

JT Barrett eventually took over for the struggling Cardale Jones and walked a TD in on Ohio State's next possession.  That was followed by a Braxton Miller led drive that ended with an Ezekiel Elliott TD.

Make no mistake, Barkley continued to run the ball well with two consecutive 1st downs.  Unfortunately, when James Franklin decided to go for it on 4th and 8, Hack hesitated, got sacked, and killed the drive.  Bad new piled up as the 1st half came to a close.  JT Barrett found the endzone again and suddenly Hackenberg was sporting a large gash on his leg which caused him to have a noticeable limp for the rest of the game.

For once Penn State had a strong start to a 2nd half.  Hackenberg took a shot on the first play, going 56 yds downfield to Chris Godwin who dragged his defender for at least 20 of those yds after the catch.  Saquon Barkley got the team inside the 10 yd line, and Daesean Hamilton finished it off with a sideline tight rope and dive into the endzone!  Now PSU was only down by two scores.  The defense did their part with Carl Nassib once again collecting two sacks on the evening.  They held Ohio State to a FG and it almost looked like the Lions would have a chance of covering.  However, in the 4th quarter, when they tried once more on 4th down, Hack hesitated again while completely missing a wide open Barkley on his right.  Per usual, the drive ended in a sack.

By this point I had stopped caring and kind of enjoyed seeing Ohio State score on Urban Meyer's signature play, the QB jump pass.  I was less enthusiastic when Hackenberg fumbled with less than 6 minutes left.  The Buckeyes would score one more TD off that turnover with a beautiful fade pass to the back of the endzone.

It was around this time, down 4 TDs, that I started to wonder (as I had during the Temple game) why Hackenberg and Barkley were still in the game?  James Franklin tried to explain this away postgame by saying Ohio State still had their starting defense in.  That's a really lame excuse for risking injury to your two best players, especially with Hack already limping.  Someone needs to take charge in those situations and get those guys on the bench.

Long story short, it was another bad night in Columbus for Penn State.  How did I do in my prediction?  Well, we didn't come close to covering a spread that I already thought was too high... so whoops.  Considering I was only 4 points off Ohio State's score, I think it's safe to say I totally overestimated our offense when I spotted them 24 points.  In fact, yeah, let's just not talk about my prediction... *sigh*

Stupid Joey Bosa.  Yes, we're mad, bro!

That will do it for tonight.  Grades should be up by Wednesday night, and then we can move on to a slightly easier opponent and possibly bowl eligibility!  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Week 7 Prediction

This week, James Franklin finally takes his show back on the road as the Nittany Lions travel to Columbus, OH to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in primetime under the lights!  It's one of the bigger games of the week, so things will kick off at 8pm and the game will air nationally on ABC.  OSU will be sporting nearly all black alternate uniforms, which should look interesting when contrasted with Penn State's all-white road uniforms.  It's going to be a fun one, so let's get right to the break down!

Haha, your stadium looks like a toilet

The Good
Coming into the season, the Buckeyes had just won the National Championship and became the first school in the history of the AP to start out the year as the consensus #1 team in the country... and yet, they are not playing well right now, or at least not up to their usual lofty expectations.  I would go as far as to say they've looked disinterested in their first six games, probably because they haven't played anyone with a pulse.  Well, the Lions are definitely showing signs of pulse these days.  No, I'm not kidding people, this could happen, they could pull the upset!  I never would have said that to start the year, and certainly not after the Temple loss, but with how these teams are playing at this very moment, it's a possibility.

Personnelwise, key pieces of the PSU roster continue to come back from injury.  Andrew Nelson and Brandon Bell were back in action this past week, and rumor has it Saquon Barkley will make his triumphant return come game time (although you never know with James Franklin's super secret injury policy).  As for the players already contributing, I have some stats to share with you: Carl Nassib leads the nation in solo sacks, total sacks, sacks/game and sack yds.  He has 10 sacks (all solo) through only 6 games and had 2 sacks and forced fumbles this past week against the Hoosiers.  All this from a former walk-on!  In fact, the entire defense is playing out of its mind, and the offense is slowly catching up.  They had their most complete game of the season last week.  If they keep the momentum building, this team will be dangerous.

As for the special teams, Franklin said at his weekly press conference that kicker Joey Julius is still the starter and that having a bad day doesn't necessarily mean you lose your job.  I like this philosophy, and I like Julius, so I'm happy about this decision.  The Big Toe will be mighty helpful in Columbus.  However, it should be pointed out that too many coaches take this thinking too far.  If a player is exhibiting tendencies instead of just one time mistakes, get him out of there before he does more harm than good.

The Bad
Ohio State is the #1 team in the country, the defending National Champs, and we have to play them at night on the road (something Penn State has been traditionally bad at, especially under James Franklin).  Nothing about this game will be easy.  I truly hope this young team is up for the challenge of a place like the Horseshoe and fans like the Buckeyes.  Their only chance will be to score some early points and silence that crowd.  Otherwise, they'll be finished by halftime.

Just how good is Ohio State?  Go print out a copy of their roster.  Now close your eyes.  Point to a random spot on the page.  In all likelihood you just pointed to a future 1st round draft pick.  It's honestly that loaded.  Normally, I struggle to find a few key players on the opposing team to look out for, and most of the time I have to do some research.  Well, not today; I can do this by memory.  So let's look at both sides of the ball independently.

On offense, you have to start with the two-headed monster at QB in J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones.  Last year both were playing at a Heisman-caliber level; this year not so much.  But you never know when either one could unleash an explosion of points.  They'll be throwing to some incredible WRs like Michael Thomas and Jalin Marshall, as well as former QB and two-time Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, Braxton Miller.  Then, of course, there's Ezekiel Elliott who is one of the best RBs I've ever seen.  When parts of the offense slow down, Elliott carries this team to victory in spite of the troubles.  Even against a defense like ours, he will be virtually unstoppable.

Defensively, DE Joey Bosa is the big name and his ability to disrupt QBs is on par with Carl Nassib.  He will make it his mission to harass Christian Hackenberg all game long.  Bosa is joined on the line by Adolphus Washington, who is no slouch himself.  In the middle roams Raekwon McMillan, a powerful LB with speed to cover the entire field.  Vonn Bell is a scary good safety who specializes in shutting down short passes and bubble screens (you know, those plays John Donovan is so fond of).  And if our WRs think they'll have an easy time separating from CB Eli Apple they've got another thing coming.  Any points Penn State plans to score will come at a premium.

The Story
First of all, can I just mention that at the halfway point of the season, this will be the first time all year Penn State will travel outside the state of Pennsylvania.  That is ridiculous!  So of course that means they'll bust out the always classy, never duplicated, all-white road unis.  Behold them, in all their glory!

Now hopefully this game won't be a repeat of the 63-14 drubbing we received the last time Penn State traveled to Columbus.  And to think, that was under Bill O'Brien, an offensive guru who actually knows how to call plays.  This year's defense is a significant upgrade from that version, though, so it should stay closer.  Don't think it's not on the minds of the more veteran players, though.  Losses like that stay with you.

I know that Michigan will always be the arch rival for Ohio State, and that's fine (Pitt will always be #1 to me).  However, the Buckeyes need to stop treating us like an after thought.  Statistically, the Nittany Lions have been the most competitive team in the conference against OSU over the last decade.  We won in 2005, 2008, 2010, and nearly knocked them off last season in double overtime!  We can compete, we will compete, and they better watch out!

The Prediction
Penn State opens as 17.5 point underdogs.  That seems high to me.  Our defense is for real and so far I just haven't been impressed enough with Ohio State's offensive production to think they can put up a lot of points against us.  Hackenberg and the offense will struggle, naturally, but they will get in the endzone, especially if Saquon Barkley comes back from injury.  I think the team comes out hyped up, plays out of their minds and maybe even takes a lead into halftime.  However, the 3rd quarter hasn't been kind to these Lions while Ohio State has proven to be dominant in the 2nd half.  Both trends continue and the Buckeyes pull away at the end.  I'm not even going to try to predict individual performances, but I will say: final score 24-34 OSU.

Alright, that will do it for tonight.  Win or lose, enjoy this one.  Games like these are what college football is all about!  Check back on Monday for the wrap up and in the meantime head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Week 6 Grades

The five game home stand came to an end with Penn State's most dominant offensive performance of the year.  A win over the Indiana Hoosiers brings the Lions to 5-1 and just one win away from bowl eligibility.  Unfortunately, their next opportunity to secure that win comes in prime time, at the Horseshoe verses Ohio State.  More about that on Friday, for now let's roll out some grades!

Offense

QB: (A+) Statistically it was Hackenberg’s best game this season as he went 21-39 for 262 yds and 2 TDs (plus 2 rushing TDs), with no INTs!  Also, the boy can move!  Now people will need to respect that aspect of his game, at least a tiny bit, which will open the door to plenty of opportunities for other players elsewhere.  Speaking of which, Hack distributed the ball as well as he has all year with 7 players notching at least one rushing attempt, and an incredible 9 players catching at least one pass.  He'll need to bring every ounce of swagger he got from this game into Columbus on Saturday.

OL: (B+) The "big uglies" finally proved they can create and hold a pocket, which is obviously key when your QB is described as a pocket passer.  Although they allowed their 2nd highest number of sacks to date, many of those were on Hack for holding the ball too long.  Meanwhile, we're on the 3rd and 4th string RBs, yet they continue to produce thanks to the holes being opened up by the offensive line.  Paris Palmer continues to be a work in progress at LT, but overall the line has improved every week, and that's all you can ever really ask.

RB: (B) Nick Scott and Mark Allen have filled in for the injured Saquon Barkley and Akeel Lynch admirably.  They combined for 105 yds on 16 carries against Indiana, but no scores.  They didn't really need to score, though, as Hackenberg ran 2 TDs in on their behalf.  Now that the Nittany Lions are in the meat of their Big Ten schedule, a strong running game is an absolute MUST!  I'm just not sold on the two redshirt freshmen providing that yet.  The good news is, Barkley's return for Saturday's game is slowly shifting from rumor to reality.

WR: (B+) Some receivers played well (Geno Lewis), some did not (DeAndre Thompkins), some didn't seem to play at all (Saeed Blacknall), while others managed to play like crap before inexplicably playing great down the stretch (Chris Godwin).  By in large, they played well as a unit compiling 266 yds and 2 TDs.  However, much of Hackenberg holding onto the ball too long is due to these guys not getting open.  And there were waaaay too many drops in the 1st quarter.  If they can clean some of that up, the talent is there to give the Buckeyes fits and give Hack a place to throw the ball.

TE: (A-) Kyle Carter may have wanted the glory on Hackenberg's second TD run, but he came through in the 2nd half with 3 catches for 30 yds on the same drive.  His blocking has also gotten better, allowing even back up RBs to have some success.  Mike Gesicki is starting to clean up his play as well, catching 2 passes for 21 yds and not making any bonehead mistakes this week.  Ohio State's physical defense will give these guys everything they can handle as both blockers and pass catchers, so they better be ready.

Defense

DL: (A+) Austin Johnson was 1 of 3 players to tie for the tackles lead with 9.  Carl Nassib now leads the nation in sacks with 10, recording 2 more on Saturday (he’s now just 5 shy of the single-season school record) and forcing 2 fumbles.  Garrett Sickells' monster hit knocked Zander Diamont out of the game.  And although he didn’t record a single tackle, Anthony Zettel batted down 2 passes at the line of scrimmage.  All told this year, the starting four on the defensive line have combined for 101 tackles, 28.5 for a loss, 16 sacks, and an insane 7 forced fumbles!

LB: (B+) The return of Brandon Bell was huge!  He only recorded 3 tackles but his leadership and coverage skills will be invaluable next week.  Jason Cabinda was part of the three-way tie for most tackles with 9 as he continues to break out.  Troy Reeder added 3 tackles, including 1 for a loss, and Von Walker added 1 of his own.  These relatively low numbers are less an indication of poor LB play, and more a symptom of Indiana's offensive style.  I expect that to change this week against a very aggressive Ohio State offense.

DB: (A+) I knew this group would be a strength of the defense since fall camp.  They've been upstaged by a ridiculous performance on the defensive line, but don't be fooled, these guys are playing out of their minds right now.  Marcus Allen is fully back from injury and back to leading the team in tackles with 9, 1.5 of which were for a loss.  Jordan Lucas (7) and Christian Campbell (5) were second and third place respectively and each had a pass breakup.  Troy Apke, Trevor Williams, and Grant Haley all added 3, while true freshman sensation John Reid grabbed the lone interception of the day.  Everyone in the secondary, including the backups, is playing at an insane level and opposing offenses better watch out!   

Special Teams

K: (D+) After being Mr Consistency all year long, Joey Julius fell flat on his face in this one.  His kickoff after Penn State’s first TD went out of bounds, giving the Hoosiers enough field position to score their only points of the day, and he missed TWO extra points!  We’ll blame this one on having a new holder and move on, but things better shape up before this Saturday.  The “+” is thanks to freshman Tyler Davis, who made his extra point and a 30 yd FG.  He may not have stolen Julius’s job yet, but he's definitely breathing down Big Toe's neck.

P: (C-) Pasky was ok.  He definitely showed his endurance, trotting out 7 times by game's end.  His 44 yd average is alright, but all of his rugby-style punts are line drives.  The key to a good punt is hangtime, and the Aussie doesn't have it.

This week's bonus grade is an A to the weather!  The passing side of the offense got a chance to shine alongside the sun on the best afternoon in Beaver Stadium all year.  Hope you all had a happy Homecoming!

That will do it for Indiana week.  We got ourselves a doozy this weekend, so expect a longer post on Friday for my prediction.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Week 6 Wrap Up

Mother Nature finally decided to cooperate for Homecoming 2015 and the final act of a five game home stand for the Nittany Lions.  The weather looked absolutely beautiful on TV, which may have contributed to the pass-happy playcalling for both teams.  In the end, PSU dominated Indiana, and brought their current win streak up to five.  More importantly, Penn State suffered no new injuries for the first time all season.  That may allow them to get pretty close to full strength when they travel to Columbus next week to take on #1 Ohio State... we'll talk about that more on Friday.  For now, let's focus on Indiana.

I'd like to start by saying, touche John Donovan.  Just when I had pretty much given up all hope of you ever putting together a competent offense, you go and pull this game plan out of your ass.  You might actually know what you're doing after all... or did the blind squirrel just find a nut?  Regardless, you managed to put points on the board in creative ways despite the loss of your top two RBs and the starting center on your depleted offensive line.  To that, all I have to say is...

Speaking of lost players, both teams came into the game extremely banged up, and for the most part the players we expected to sit out did exactly that.  Neither Saquon Barkley nor Akeel Lynch played, giving Nick Scott the start.  OL Angelo Mangiro was also out and replaced by Wendy Laurent.  Fellow lineman Andrew Nelson was back in action, though, leaving the line like this: Paris Palmer, Brendon Mahon, Wendy Laurent, Brian Gaia, Andrew Nelson.  Punter Chris Gulla apparently got injured in the Army game and also didn’t play.  This meant the Punter From Down Under, Danny Pasquariello, got the nod.  The good news was that S Marcus Allen and LB Brandon Bell were finally back and TE Adam Breneman was in uniform for the first time all season (although he did not play).  This may be the longest injury report I’ve ever done for a single game.  I hope it never comes to this again.

Now, I want to begin by talking about the two key match-ups I mentioned in my prediction post: our poor offense vs their poor defense, and their great offense vs our great defense.  Well, it looks like our offense isn't as bad as we thought, while our defense is exactly as legitimate as we knew all along.  To give you an idea, Indiana had allowed only 3 sacks all season coming into Saturday's contest; our defense recorded 4.  They also chopped IU's yds per play in half, limited their 36 points per game to only 7, and turned a team averaging 498 yds per game into the latest victim of The Streak (PSU still hasn't given up more than 300 total yds to an opponent this year).  Just how good was this defense?  Following the Hoosiers' only points of the game, they inexplicably went for and recovered an onside kick.  It promptly led to a three-and-out.  On Penn State's ensuing drive, RB Mark Allen lost the first fumble PSU has given up this whole season and gave Indiana the ball at their own 43; they would only manage one 1st down.  Yeah, they were that good.

Teams have clearly taken note of Anthony Zettel's break out 2014 campaign and focused their attention on the potential first round draft pick.  This has in turn allowed his DT counterpart Austin Johnson to step out from Zettel's shadow, and allowed DE Carl Nassib to have his own break out year, wreaking havoc on every offense he comes in contact with and fighting for the title of Nation's Sack Master.  Still, we knew coming into this one that the defense was awesome.  What we didn't know was what to think about this offense.  Well, they answered in a big way, and hopefully they can keep things going from here on out.  Let's dive into what happened!

Penn State got the ball to start but didn’t do much.  Two uncharacteristic drops by Chris Godwin and some poor play by Hackenberg resulted in the first of many punts on the day, but allowed Danny Pasquariello to pin Indiana back at their own 6 yd line.  Dual-threat QB Zander Diamont came out throwing instead of running, and just like Hack, he did it poorly.  Here's a stat to symbolize the futility of the 1st quarter - both team’s QBs combined to go 0-7 on their opening possessions.

Hackenberg continued to find his groove and the multitude of dropped passes by his WRs didn’t help matters.  Chris Godwin would drop four catchable balls before finally shaking the cobwebs loose in the 2nd quarter.  TE Mike Gesicki also dropped his first two targets of the afternoon.  RB Nick Scott was the lone bright spot early, running for a few important 1st downs before Brandon Polk faked the jet sweep, ran a route down the sideline, and caught a 39 yd bomb from Hack for the first points of the game and Polk's first career receiving TD!  Indiana would answer immediately on their next drive with a Zander Diamont sneak and score.  But even more alarming was the successful onside kick recovery during the ensuing kickoff.  Penn State’s defense would hold strong and prevent a huge swing in momentum.

Geno Lewis had been strangely absent this year, but we finally heard his name in a game where 9 different players would catch a pass.  He, along with Chris Godwin (who woke up after a miserable opening quarter that saw him drop no fewer than four catchable passes), made plays when the team needed them and came up with a number of critical 1st downs.  Fellow WR Daesean Hamilton would also get involved, pulling in Hackenberg's second 39 bomb of the day for a TD.  The celebration was cut short when the usually reliable Joey "Big Toe" Julius missed the extra point, leaving the score at 13-7.

One of the biggest stories of the game was Christian Hackenberg's evolution into a "dual-threat" QB.  No seriously, on the very next offensive possession, he got things rolling with a 9 yd scramble, then followed it up with an impressive 22 yd run.  He would eventually polish the drive off himself with a 5 yd run and his third TD of the day (much to the dismay of a wide open Kyle Carter).  Joey Julius would go on to miss his second extra point of the day and eventually get replaced by freshman Tyler Davis.  *Just to play devil's advocate, Chris Gulla is usually the holder for FGs and extra points, but he was out with an injury.  Maybe that's what caused the misses.  Either way, that needs to stop ASAP!*

Nothing of any real importance happened immediately after halftime.  For some perspective, the 3rd quarter featured 7 punts and no 1st downs.  4 of those punts belonged to Penn State, and 3 of those came after three-and-outs.  Ouch.  However, one key play was when Zander Diamont (already the back up to original starting QB Nate Sudfeld) took a huge shot from DE Garrett Sickells and was knocked out of the game.  This forced the Hoosiers to bring in their third stringer, Danny Cameron, a redshirt freshman playing his first collegiate snaps ever.  He would predictably play like a freshman, especially against this defense, and remove all doubt regarding the outcome of the game.

In the 4th quarter, CB John Reid snagged a tipped pass for his second career interception, proving what I’ve said about him since day one.  On the first play of the ensuing drive, Kyle Carter got involved with a nice catch.  He would actually have three that drive, including some 1st down grabs.  But just like earlier, Hackenberg would steal Carter's thunder, polishing off the drive with a 5 yd run and a superman style dive for his fourth TD of the day.  New kicker Tyler Davis managed to hit this extra point, putting the Nittany Lions up 26-7.

Later on we saw the obligatory stalled drive that ends in a FG attempt, just as I predicted in my post, only it was Davis kicking, not Julius.  He would hit the 30 yarder for the last points of the game.

So how’d I do on my prediction?  Well if Joey Julius hadn’t missed those extra points I would have nailed PSU’s score!  And I ended up either giving too much credit to IU’s offense or not enough credit to PSU’s defense… can’t decide. Either way, they only managed 7.  Hackenberg did throw for well over 200 yds and 2 TDs, but he didn’t throw a pick!  And who could have guessed he’d run for 2 TDs as well?  His targets on those TDs ended up being Polk and Hamilton instead of Godwin and Hamilton, so I was half right there.  The 3 RBs I mentioned combined for 111 yds instead of 150 and none of them scored, so swing and a miss.  Julius was pulled after his misses, so it was actually Tyler Davis who hit the stalled drive FG.  On defense, 3 players tied for the lead in tackles while plenty of people got sacks including my predictions of Nassib and Johnson.  Finally, freshman John Reid grabbed the INT, not Lucas or Haley, but it did effectively seal the game.  The Nittany Lions get the win, improve to 5-1 on the season, and are now just one win away from bowl eligibility!

That will do it for today.  I think the grades post is coming along nicely and might be up as soon as tomorrow evening.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Week 6 Prediction

It's that time of year when alumni of all ages and backgrounds will once again make their annual pilgrimage to State College for Homecoming 2015!  James Franklin likes to call all home games "family reunions" but Homecoming is generally the biggest reunion of them all.  This year's edition will feature a matchup against the Indiana Hoosiers and their high-flying offense.  The game was originally scheduled to air on ESPN2, but has since been rescheduled to air on regular ESPN due to a weather-related disruption of the South Carolina/LSU game.  As always, all games on a network containing the name "ESPN" can also be seen on the WatchESPN app.  There will be no change in time as things will still kick off at noon.  I won't be able to make it up for the game this year, but for those of you who are attending, OnwardState has your guide to all the festivities going on around town.

A brief injury update before we begin: Penn State's updated depth chart, released earlier this week, revealed that neither Akeel Lynch nor Saquon Barkley will play on Saturday.  Also being held out are LB Brandon Bell and S Marcus Allen.  No official word yet on OL Andrew Nelson and Angelo Mangiro, but unlike the names above they did appear on the depth chart.  *Update 10/8: Barkley has been practicing, but there's still no word if he'll be back by Saturday.  My prediction (since that's what this post is all about after all) is that he'll sit this one out and save himself for Ohio State*

With that out of the way, let's get to the break down!

The Good
The biggest good thing about this game is that it's against Indiana.  History is certainly on Penn State's side as the Nittany Lions hold a 17-1 all time record against the Hoosiers, and they're playing at home on top of it.  Obviously, that doesn't guarantee them anything and they can't get too cocky (as Bill O'Brien found out just 2 years ago), but this history should give the players confidence, which can account for a lot.  If they play up to their potential, they are vastly more talented than the Hoosiers and should win.

For Indiana, everything starts with QB Nate Sudfeld.  He has already thrown for over 1,200 yds and 7 TDs to just 1 INT in only 5 games.  Unfortunately for them, Sudfeld was injured during last week's game against Ohio State.  If he can't play, backup Zander Diamont (who played against Penn State last year due to another Sudfeld injury) will be called upon once again.  Diamont played admirably against OSU after Sudfeld went down, but he was also responsible for an end-of-game fumble that cost his team the victory.  His consistency, or lack thereof, could be a huge factor in this game.

Indiana has a decent record of producing great offenses, but they have an equally decent record of producing incredibly bad defenses (like the one that let Wisconsin put up 70 points on them a few years ago).  This year's version of the Hoosiers appears to be no different.  Currently, the IU defense is giving up more points per game than the PSU offense is scoring.  This could be good news for the offense, however, the opposite is also true.  PSU's stellar defense is allowing fewer points per game than Indiana is currently scoring.  Case in point, Indiana's offense has allowed only 3 sacks this season, while, DE Carl Nassib has racked up 8 sacks just by himself.  Which of these match-ups breaks first will most likely be the key to this game, and my money is on our defense.

The Bad
Other than Sudfeld, RB Jordan Howard is the name to watch out for.  He replaced last year's star, Tevin Coleman, who is now playing in the NFL.  So far there's been no drop off.  In fact, Howard was leading the nation in rushing as recently as last week.  However, just like his QB counterpart, he was injured against the Buckeyes and left the game.  It is unclear whether or not either will play this week.  If they do, it puts the defense in a bad situation: load the box to stop Howard and expose yourself to Sudfeld's arm, or pull guys back into coverage and get worn down by Howard's physical running style.  What's a Defensive Coordinator to do?

And then there's the issue of Penn State's roster.  In case you didn't get the memo, PSU is ridiculously young.  They've played an astounding 21 freshmen (that's true and redshirt) so far this year.  One more and they could literally field an entirely freshmen team!  Now sometimes freshmen can make a pleasant impact (re: Saquon Barkley), but most of the time their inexperience leads to mental mistakes, inconsistency, and breakdowns.  It does bode incredibly well for the future, I'm just not sure about this week's game.

The Story
Current third string QB Tommy Stevens was originally committed to play for Indiana, that is until James Franklin got his recruiting hooks on the 3-star duel-threat prospect.  Now he's ours and he appears to be a decent option in the future.  Sorry not sorry Hoosiers.

As I've mentioned, last week Indiana played #1 ranked Ohio State and nearly won.  It was the type of close call that can take the life right out of a team, especially the very next week.  On top of that, nearly all their top play makers were injured in the contest and are questionable for Saturday.  Penn State also has a lot of question marks due to injury, but they were able to rest players against an overmatched Army team, a luxury not afforded to the Hoosiers against the Buckeyes.  For example, James Franklin indicated at his weekly press conference that Barkley said he could've played in the 2nd half against the Black Knights (although Franklin also said he didn't believe him).  Regardless, the extra recovery time can only help the freshman moving forward and it's nice to see that fighting spirit in him.

One story I feel should be highlighted is the story of LB Jason Cabinda.  When Nyeem Wartman-White went down against Temple, Cabinda was forced into the starting middle LB position as a true sophomore.  He has since embraced that role and become a vocal leader on the team.  Check out this great interview he did with Big Ten Network and I think you'll agree he's proudly upholding the tradition of LinebackerU!

The Prediction
Penn State actually enters as an 8 point favorite, and most analysts I've seen are picking the Lions to win.  I'm honestly not sure where this is coming from.  Those same analysts have lambasted Penn State all season for their underwhelming performances on offense, whilst simultaneously applauding Indiana for their 4-1 start and near take-down of the reigning National Champs with a backup QB.  At the end of the day, this game is nearly impossible to predict because both teams are keeping information about injuries to their key players under lock and key.  Depending on who actually takes the field, this one could go either way, but what the hell, I'm willing to give this a shot for entertainment's sake.  With the nice weather (and the criticism of John Donovan getting louder), Hackenberg is let loose and throws for 200 yds and 2 TDs (to Chris Godwin and Daesean Hamilton) with only 1 INT.  Some combination of Nick Scott, Mark Allen, and Johnathan Thomas manages to put up 150 yds rushing plus 2 TDs of their own.  And of course, Joey Julius hits the obligatory FG on an otherwise stalled drive.  On defense, Jason Cabinda leads the team in tackles while Carl Nassib and Austin Johnson each get a sack.  Either Jordan Lucas or Grant Haley picks off whoever is taking snaps for Indiana and seals the game.  The Nittany Lions jump out to an early lead behind a raucous Homecoming crowd and that costly turnover ruins any chance of an Indiana comeback.  Penn State pulls within one more win of bowl eligibility as they get set to head to Columbus next week.  Final score: 31 - 24.

Alright, have fun everyone and stay safe as you celebrate another Penn State Homecoming.  Check back either Sunday or Monday for the wrap up, depending on when I find time.  Head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

Week 5 Grades

Yet another lackluster performance by the offense resulted in some less than stellar grades this week, especially considering the fact that Penn State won the game.  Over on the defensive side of the ball, though, it was business as usual, shutting down the prolific rushing attack of a team that only attempted to throw the ball once.  As I said, in the end the Nittany Lions prevailed and move to 4-1 on the season.  Hopefully with better weather comes better play, even more wins, and a decent bowl game.  For now, let's take things one game at a time and roll out some grades.

Offense
QB: (C-) Hackenberg went 10-19 for 156 yds and 1 TD with no INTs.  Some critics continue to question him, but the god's honest truth is that he's in a perfect storm of bad situations.  He's behind an epically bad offensive line, has a terrible play caller at Offensive Coordinator, has young receivers who don't get open, and he's had to play 3 of the last 4 games in the rain.  Pile on top of that all the injuries to key starters and I don't really care what his stats are; we got the win.  *On that note, BSD's Film Room this week takes a look at the "Hack sucks" theory and dispels it*

OL: (C) They let up another 3 sacks (although one was definitely on Hack for holding the ball too long), and the running game never really got going the way it had in past weeks.  Still, Hackenberg seemed to have more time to throw than usual, and that's behind a line missing its top two players.  We'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now, but this the last time.

RB: (C+) Just like the offensive line, this group is missing its top two players so they avoid a failing grade.  Nick Scott led the RBs with only 54 yds, but scored his first collegiate TD.  Third-stringer Johnathan Thomas was decent in limited action, and Mark Allen rounded out the group with 19 yds.  None of them can spark this offense the way Saquon Barkley can, so I think we're all hoping for his return asap.  Big Ten defenses will dominate these back ups if Barkley and Lynch are out for the year, and that could mean a long season for fans.

WR: (C-) Chris Godwin continues to lead this group with 4 catches for 66 yds, but directly behind him are two TEs and a RB.  That should give you a good indication of where the passing offense is at and it's not good.  After leading the Big Ten in receptions last year, Daesean Hamilton has basically disappeared.  He only had one catch all game, although it did come on a critical 4th down.  With all the problems on the offensive line, the WRs need to step up and get separation so Hackenberg has somewhere to throw the ball.  Otherwise, as I said before, it's going to be a long season.

TE: (B+) Why hello Brent Wilkerson!  The perennial fourth-stringer has slowly moved up to second place on the depth chart and he had two nice 7 yd catches against Army.  Those also happened to be his first catches of the season.  Mike Gesicki continues to make errors and drop balls, but like Nick Scott, he made his only catch of the game count by running it 33 yds for the score and his first collegiate TD, fittingly on his birthday.  Gesicki is huge, and insanely athletic.  If the staff ever learns to use him right, he'll be a force to be reckoned with.

Defense
DL: (A) Another game, another opponent held under 300 yds of offense, and it's mostly because of the big boys up front.  This is especially true against an exclusively running team like Army.  Anthony Zettel, Torrence Brown, Austin Johnson, and Curtis Cothran all had 4 tackles a piece.  Meanwhile, Carl Nassib (who got his own piece on ESPN.com) only had 2 tackles, but his sack in this game skyrocketed him to tops in the nation in that category.  These guys are the only unit on the field that has consistently performed and somehow steered clear of injuries... as if you needed another reason to love them.

LB: (A+) Jason Cabinda is officially LinebackerU material!  The true sophomore set the standard against the Black Knights with a team-high 14 tackles, 2 sacks, and a forced fumble.  He was absolutely ridiculous!  Not far behind him was freshman Manny Bowen with 6 tackles and a fumble recovery.  Troy Reeder, Jake Cooper, and Von Walker combined for 9 more tackles and all played well in their own right.  The other big story with this group was the return of perpetually injured veteran Ben Kline.  If nothing else, he'll bring much needed experience to a very talented, but very young linebacking corps.

DB: (A-) Army literally threw one pass.  At first I didn't think it would be fair to grade a unit that wasn't tested at all... then I looked at the stats.  Apparently the corners and safeties blitzed all day because Jordan Lucas was 2nd on the team in tackles with 8, fellow safety Troy Apke had 5, CB Grant Haley had 4, and Malik Golden and Amani Oruwariye each had 2.  That's a lot of tackles!  They'll be tested through the air this week against Indiana, but it's good to see they can help out with the run when called upon too.

Special Teams
K: (A) Mr Consistency, aka Joey Julius, hit a 27 yarder and a 37 yarder along with 2 extra points.  The kid is good and a fan favorite. At least one part of the special teams is worth watching.

P: (F) Chris Gulla's 32 yd average and 11 yd shank were so bad the coaches replaced him with Danny Pasquariello near the end of the game (Pasky didn't fare much better).  Is Blake Gillikin on campus yet?

Today's bonus grade goes to the weather, which gets an F because I'm sick of this freaking rain!

Alright, that will do it for my Army coverage.  The real meat of the Big Ten schedule starts this weekend as the Indiana Hoosiers come to town for Homecoming 2015.  Be sure to check out my prediction post on Friday.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!