Friday, October 23, 2015

Week 8 Prediction

This week, the Nittany Lions Roadshow continues with a trip to visit the Maryland Terrapins (that means turtle, in case you didn't know).  The game will technically be a neutral site contest, as it will be played at M&T Bank Stadium, home of the Baltimore Ravens.  Kick off is set for 3:30 pm on ESPN.  The "Terps" will be wearing alternate throw back uniforms for the game, commemorating the time they beat Penn State in 1961 (that's the only other time they've beaten us outside of last year in 38 tries).  That's kind of a weird thing to brag about if you ask me, but hey, to each his own.  One other important thing I should probably mention going into this one is that Maryland fired their head coach, Randy Edsall, last week.  Bon voyage! (more on him later).

Generally speaking, this should be an easy one.  I do not, as Maryland fans like to say, "fear the turtle."  I'm actually quite fond of turtles.  In fact, I have 2 red-eared sliders named Hackenberg and Franklin.  Here they are chilling in Paterno Pond... yes, I'm serious about all of this.  They live in my DIY indoor turtle pond and they root for Penn State every game day!

Traitors to their own species...

Anyway, let's get to the break down!

The Good
Christian Hackenberg needs less than 100 yds to become Penn State's all-time leading passer.  So he'll have motivation to have a good game.  We also have a healthy Saquon Barkley, which is pretty awesome.  And we still have our amazing defense!

So far this season, Maryland has played three different QBs, and all three have thrown at least one interception.  Case in point, current backup Caleb Rowe has gone 18-54 with 0 TDs and 7 INTs since a win over South Florida.  Not exactly intimidating.

The truth is, this Terrapin defense is so bad we're basically guaranteed 4 TDs, and their offense is nowhere near talented enough, especially at positions like WR, to score 4 of their own against our stout defense.

I know this "good" section looks a little thin, but that's because the good news is this simple: Penn State is the much better team.

The Bad
Perry Hills is Maryland's starting QB.  He's not very good at throwing the ball, to be honest, but he's a decent runner (something our defense struggled with against Temple, Indiana, and Ohio State).  Hills is averaging 8 yds/carry and scored 2 rushing TDs vs Ohio State two weeks ago.

Our punting is atrocious right now and it's really hurting our ability to win games.  Neither Chris Gulla nor Danny Pasquariello has been able to make any kind of meaningful difference in the field position battle.  Moreover, they both have a tendency to shank punts and offer up very favorable starting field position to their opponents!  But it gets worse.  Will Likely is the star to watch for the Terps.  He's a CB that will look to pick off an often flustered Hackenberg.  He's also a monster as a punt returner and if he gets his hands on the ball on special teams, it could be lights out.  Also watch out for Yannick Ngakoue, a DE with 6.5 sacks so far this year.  He'll be playing opposite Paris Palmer and provides a key match-up to watch.

The Terps are coming off a bye week and are under the impression that this is a rivalry game, so they'll come out fired up.  It's also Mike Lockley's first game as head coach.  Although this might cause a lack of execution for Maryland, it might also serve as a rallying point, and PSU doesn't know his tendencies.  So there's the possibility he catches us off guard with strange new wrinkles.

Last year's hero, Maryland kicker Brad Craddock is back and better than ever.  If this becomes a low scoring game with lots of FGs, the Terrapins will have the advantage.

The Story
When it comes to rivalries, I think they generally need to have two key components: 1) competitive results between the two programs, and 2) a sense of mutual respect.  In other words, it's possible to hate someone with class.  This is the case with a school like Ohio State.  We've been competitive with them in the past, and although we don't exactly care for them, we're capable of competing against each other with dignity.

...And then there's the Maryland Terrapins.  Last season Maryland tried to show how much cooler and more badass than Penn State they think they are by refusing to shake hands with our captains at the pregame coin toss.  Whatever.  In a perfect world we would have beaten them and rubbed their faces in it.  This is not a fair world, however, and they won on a controversial last second FG, leaving them feeling justified in their classless behavior for an entire year.  Well listen up you sorry excuse for a football program!  Ever since you inexplicably fired your ACC Coach of the Year winner Ralph Friedgen and passed up on promoting then assistant coach James Franklin to be his successor, your football program has been a complete trainwreck.  Randy Edsall was hated by fans and players alike from day one, and after years of arrogantly defending his hire, you throw him out mid-season.  All this at a time when you have nothing meaningful to offer even the most underqualified coaching candidates.  Meanwhile, in spite of all that Under Armour money, you have mismanaged every facet of your athletic department (not just football) to the point of eliminating nearly a dozen varsity sports just to stay above water.  In more than a decade you have failed to achieve anything of merit as you sink deeper and deeper into an existence of futile irrelevance.  Enjoy that assholes.  If one school deserves it, it's you guys!

The Prediction
Penn State opens as an 8.5 point favorite.  That sounds a little low to me.  Then again, I have no respect at all for this Maryland team.  Hackenberg throws for 160 yds with 2 TDs, most likely to Godwin and Hamilton.  Saquon Barkley will have 200 yds and 2 TDs, while Joey Julius finishes up the scoring with a FG.  Carl Nassib has at least 2 sacks, while Marcus Allen leads the team in tackles.  John Reid picks off whoever is at QB to complete the embarrassment.  Final score 31-17 Penn State.  Bowl eligibility here we come!

Alright, that will do it for tonight.  I'll be at a cheesesteak festival in Philadelphia during the game, but I'll try to get updates on my phone.  Check back on Monday for my weekly wrap up.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!

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