Yes, it's Halloween week(end) and I wish you and yours a happy and safe one. Dress up, eat candy, and of course, enjoy as many college football games as you can! The Nittany Lions get us started as they return home to Beaver Stadium for a noon kick off against the Fighting Illini of Illinois on ESPN2. Now, the Illini do have orange as one of their primary school colors, so at the very least they'll look festive, but it's certainly not going to help them against Bob Shoop's "Wild Dog" defense and Christian Hackenberg's newly unleashed "Flight Squad" receiving corps. This match up has a fairly bitter recent history, so let's dive right into it with this week's breakdown!
The Good
Penn State has the Big Ten's worst redzone defense, giving up points on 21 out of 23 tries so far this season; 16 of those were for TDs. HOWEVER, Illinois has the conference's worst redzone offense, only managing points on 19 out of 26 attempts, and managing TDs on just 13 of those chances. In front of a (hopefully well-costumed) home crowd, I expect the defense to win out in the end.
The Illini also don't have a very intimidating defense, especially when it comes to pressuring the QB, which bodes well for Hackenberg. With the emergence of a reinvigorated WR unit, the PSU offense may be able to force opponents into the same conundrum Maryland found themselves in last week: stack the box against Barkley and get burned over the top, or defend the pass and get run all over.
On the injury front, it looks like Illinois will be without WR Mike Dudek, who tore apart the Nittany Lions' secondary in last year's loss. Their starting RB Josh Ferguson will also likely be out of Saturday's contest due to injury.
Illinois will also be without their coach, although not due to injury. In what has become an eerie trend, Penn State will face off against an interim coach (they've already played against interim coaches with Rutgers and Maryland this season). Former head man Tim Beckman (who we'll get to in The Story) was fired a week before the season started, stemming from an internal investigation by Illinois into Beckman's handling of player injuries. Now, his former offensive coordinator, Bill Cubit steps in and has done a commendable job so far. Unlike last week against Maryland, however, Cubit has been on the sidelines all season long, so there's film on his tendencies and game plans. I don't expect Penn State to look nearly as unprepared as they did against the Terps.
The Bad
Wes Lunt, a transfer QB from Oklahoma State, is the offensive name to watch out for. Lunt is basically the poor man's Christian Hackenberg. Unlike Hack, though, he has thrived in Bill Cubit's pro-style system and has much better numbers pretty much across the board. He also has help on the outside in WR Geronimo Allison, a talented player who can stretch the field.
On the other hand, I'm sure the Penn State defense is happy to finally get a break from mobile QBs. Pro style systems are what they were designed to shut down. Interestingly enough, James Franklin thinks his defense has gotten tired chasing all those running QBs around. He'll be scaling back practice this week in hopes of getting "fresher legs" under his players. Still, time off can sometimes lead to lazy play, so don't be surprised if you see the defense looking sluggish coming out of the gates on Saturday.
Illinois' defense plays in a 4-2-5 package, dropping an extra man into the secondary to defend against the pass. DE Dawuane Smoot is their sack leader with just 5 sacks on the year, but against a line that's missing RT Andrew Nelson due to injury, he could become a threat to watch out for. If they commit LBs to the box to stop Barkley, that extra man in the backfield gives them an edge Maryland didn't have and they could hold off the passing attack too. That could spell doom for the Penn State offense.
Former head coach Tim Beckman was a complete asshole. There's really no other way to put it. Black Shoe Diaries did a good job, as always, of summing up much of what made Beckman so vile and hated. Their parent organization, SB Nation, also did a fantastic retrospect on some of ol' Timmy's "finest" moments. In the interest of time, I'll summarize quickly. Beckman tried to poach PSU players at the height of the Jerry Sandusky scandal. He then topped that by abusing his players emotionally, and forcing them to play while injured through intimidation and coercion. He's a piece of trash, and the Illinois program is much better off without him. Now we can all play a nice, respectful football game without seething about the man on the other sideline.
The other story behind this game is a little more positive (at least for Penn State fans). 4 years ago, almost to the day, Illinois came to Beaver Stadium and walked out on the losing end of a very close game (won on a last second missed FG). More importantly, that victory gave Joe Paterno his record-setting 409th career win! It would unfortunately also be his last game ever as head coach. Now, 4 years later, we again play Illinois, and I'm hoping the results are basically the same. JoePa's achievement will stand for a VERY long time, trust me, and it may never be broken. To coach for that long, at one school, and at such a high level is almost unfathomable.
The Prediction
So in honor of Joe Paterno, I'm predicting that Penn State wins with a score of 40-9, collecting exactly 409 yds of total offense. If that doesn't happen, though...
I actually predict that Hackenberg will have a good, but not great day. He'll give Chris Godwin and Daesean Hamilton their touches, and both will score. Saquon Barkley has a bounce back game, going for 150 yds and a TD. On defense, Marcus Allen and Jordan Lucas have big days against a pass heavy attack, but it's John Reid who gets his third INT of the year. Carl Nassib picks up 2 more sacks for his stat sheet, and Austin Johnson forces a fumble. Penn State proves to be too much for the boys from Campaign, and they continue their home undefeated streak. Final score, 24-10.
That will do it for tonight. Be a sport and root for little brother in their game this week too. Check back in on Monday for my weekly wrap up. In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!
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