Week 5 Prediction

Penn State continues their unusual 5 game homestand this week by hosting the Army Black Knights from the United States Military Academy at West Point.  Things will kick off at noon on ESPNU and the WatchESPN app.  The weather report says even more rain is on the way (whether that's a good or bad thing depends on who you ask).  That makes 3 out of 4 home games so far this year with rain, and it will apparently affect the parking situation this week.  While the administration contemplates renovations to Beaver Stadium, I think this year should serve as a notice that weather considerations might want to be a big part of that discussion.  But enough about rain, there's football to be played, so let's get to the breakdown!

The Good
All of the service academies have trouble recruiting because, well, you have to serve in that branch upon graduation.  Not putting a value judgement on this, but 5-star recruits tend to be more interested in the NFL than military service.  Still, even by those low standards, Army has fallen behind Navy and Air Force in recent years.  They're always well coached and disciplined, but because of the talent gap, they're generally considered a rather easy opponent.

Things could get even easier with the uncertainty at QB for Army.  Two players are currently splitting reps at the most important position on the field (although, to be fair, starting QB Ahmad Bradshaw appears to be suffering from a lingering injury).  They're also having issues on defense in their 3-4 scheme (3 DL, 4 LBs).  Having only three guys up front should allow PSU's offensive line to get some much needed push, especially if Lynch and Barkley are held out of action.  Army's nose tackle T.J. Atimalala (who essentially plays the part of both DTs in a standard 4-3 scheme) just hasn't lived up to his potential yet.  This should be good news for Nick Scott and Mark Allen.

The Bad
What's not good news is defending against the triple option, which James Franklin touched on at his weekly press conference.  This is an offensive system where the ball carrier is not assigned based on the play call.  Instead, upwards of 3 offensive players could get the ball depending on how things develop.  This puts a ton of pressure on the QB to make good decisions and execute, but it also puts pressure on the defense to shut down every possibility all at the same time.  Luckily, some of the Nittany Lion players and coaches have experience with the triple option.

The apparently wet weather set to hit Happy Valley around game time plays right into Army's strength on offense, which is the running game.  In their only win of the season last week against Eastern Michigan, the Black Knights had six RBs each rush for 60 yds or more.  Look for any combination of Matt Gianchinta, Aaron Kemper, Joe Walker, or John Trainor to test Penn State's normally stout defensive front.  On defense, keep an eye out for LBs Jeremy Timpf and Andrew King, who have combined for 61 tackles so far this year.

Since James Franklin doesn't discuss injuries (unless they're season ending), we're left to guess who may or may not play against Army.  Any or all of the following players could be held out of Saturday's game: RB Saquon Barkley, RB Akeel Lynch, TE Adam Breneman, OL Andrew Nelson, CB Grant Haley, S Jordan Lucas, S Marcus Allen, LB Brandon Bell, and DE Evan Schwan.  Read into all of that at your own peril.

The Story
Well the big story is that it's Military Appreciation Day.  That's a nice gesture and all, but I wonder how many schools have military appreciation days when a service academy comes to town, and do the academies get tired of it?  I know a lot of soldiers get upset constantly being told "thank you for your service."  Is this the same basic concept?  Anyway, Lions247 breaks down the military connections of the team in preparation for Saturday's festivities (interesting side note: Daesean Hamilton was born in Japan?!).

Hackenberg actually comes to State College by way of Fork Union Military Academy in Virginia.  So he's had at least some experience with the military lifestyle.  Not sure if it will help him prepare for this game, but it will definitely give him a solid appreciation for the men he's playing against.  It also explains his incredibly mature demeanor and ability to rise above adversity, qualities that make Penn Staters everywhere love him that much more.

The Prediction
Alright, so how do I think things will shape up?  Well, between the rain and the weak front 7 on defense, I think Penn State will primarily stick to the run.  So I'll call for Hackenberg to throw for about 100 yds or fewer and at most 1 TD.  I'll also predict that we won't hear much from the WRs and TEs.  The RBs, on the other hand, should have a very productive day.  Unfortunately, with the injury situation being what it is, it's hard to tell who the RBs will even be for this game.  Regardless, I expect to see two 100 yd rushers and a plethora of TDs.  Defensively, stuffing the run game is this group's bread and butter.  They'll continue doing what they normally do, hopefully with their usual flashy style (i.e. fumbles returned for fat guy TDs, long interception returns, and cringe-inducing hits).  Like all Americans, I respect our armed forces, but they aren't going to win this one.  Penn State improves to 4-1 on the year, final score: 37-10.

Enjoy the game everyone, and try to stay dry!  I'll be back with my wrap up either Sunday or Monday.  In the meantime, head on over to my Facebook page to keep up with all things Penn State football.  While you're there, feel free to give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!