Week 6 Prediction

It's that time of year when alumni of all ages and backgrounds will once again make their annual pilgrimage to State College for Homecoming 2015!  James Franklin likes to call all home games "family reunions" but Homecoming is generally the biggest reunion of them all.  This year's edition will feature a matchup against the Indiana Hoosiers and their high-flying offense.  The game was originally scheduled to air on ESPN2, but has since been rescheduled to air on regular ESPN due to a weather-related disruption of the South Carolina/LSU game.  As always, all games on a network containing the name "ESPN" can also be seen on the WatchESPN app.  There will be no change in time as things will still kick off at noon.  I won't be able to make it up for the game this year, but for those of you who are attending, OnwardState has your guide to all the festivities going on around town.

A brief injury update before we begin: Penn State's updated depth chart, released earlier this week, revealed that neither Akeel Lynch nor Saquon Barkley will play on Saturday.  Also being held out are LB Brandon Bell and S Marcus Allen.  No official word yet on OL Andrew Nelson and Angelo Mangiro, but unlike the names above they did appear on the depth chart.  *Update 10/8: Barkley has been practicing, but there's still no word if he'll be back by Saturday.  My prediction (since that's what this post is all about after all) is that he'll sit this one out and save himself for Ohio State*

With that out of the way, let's get to the break down!

The Good
The biggest good thing about this game is that it's against Indiana.  History is certainly on Penn State's side as the Nittany Lions hold a 17-1 all time record against the Hoosiers, and they're playing at home on top of it.  Obviously, that doesn't guarantee them anything and they can't get too cocky (as Bill O'Brien found out just 2 years ago), but this history should give the players confidence, which can account for a lot.  If they play up to their potential, they are vastly more talented than the Hoosiers and should win.

For Indiana, everything starts with QB Nate Sudfeld.  He has already thrown for over 1,200 yds and 7 TDs to just 1 INT in only 5 games.  Unfortunately for them, Sudfeld was injured during last week's game against Ohio State.  If he can't play, backup Zander Diamont (who played against Penn State last year due to another Sudfeld injury) will be called upon once again.  Diamont played admirably against OSU after Sudfeld went down, but he was also responsible for an end-of-game fumble that cost his team the victory.  His consistency, or lack thereof, could be a huge factor in this game.

Indiana has a decent record of producing great offenses, but they have an equally decent record of producing incredibly bad defenses (like the one that let Wisconsin put up 70 points on them a few years ago).  This year's version of the Hoosiers appears to be no different.  Currently, the IU defense is giving up more points per game than the PSU offense is scoring.  This could be good news for the offense, however, the opposite is also true.  PSU's stellar defense is allowing fewer points per game than Indiana is currently scoring.  Case in point, Indiana's offense has allowed only 3 sacks this season, while, DE Carl Nassib has racked up 8 sacks just by himself.  Which of these match-ups breaks first will most likely be the key to this game, and my money is on our defense.

The Bad
Other than Sudfeld, RB Jordan Howard is the name to watch out for.  He replaced last year's star, Tevin Coleman, who is now playing in the NFL.  So far there's been no drop off.  In fact, Howard was leading the nation in rushing as recently as last week.  However, just like his QB counterpart, he was injured against the Buckeyes and left the game.  It is unclear whether or not either will play this week.  If they do, it puts the defense in a bad situation: load the box to stop Howard and expose yourself to Sudfeld's arm, or pull guys back into coverage and get worn down by Howard's physical running style.  What's a Defensive Coordinator to do?

And then there's the issue of Penn State's roster.  In case you didn't get the memo, PSU is ridiculously young.  They've played an astounding 21 freshmen (that's true and redshirt) so far this year.  One more and they could literally field an entirely freshmen team!  Now sometimes freshmen can make a pleasant impact (re: Saquon Barkley), but most of the time their inexperience leads to mental mistakes, inconsistency, and breakdowns.  It does bode incredibly well for the future, I'm just not sure about this week's game.

The Story
Current third string QB Tommy Stevens was originally committed to play for Indiana, that is until James Franklin got his recruiting hooks on the 3-star duel-threat prospect.  Now he's ours and he appears to be a decent option in the future.  Sorry not sorry Hoosiers.

As I've mentioned, last week Indiana played #1 ranked Ohio State and nearly won.  It was the type of close call that can take the life right out of a team, especially the very next week.  On top of that, nearly all their top play makers were injured in the contest and are questionable for Saturday.  Penn State also has a lot of question marks due to injury, but they were able to rest players against an overmatched Army team, a luxury not afforded to the Hoosiers against the Buckeyes.  For example, James Franklin indicated at his weekly press conference that Barkley said he could've played in the 2nd half against the Black Knights (although Franklin also said he didn't believe him).  Regardless, the extra recovery time can only help the freshman moving forward and it's nice to see that fighting spirit in him.

One story I feel should be highlighted is the story of LB Jason Cabinda.  When Nyeem Wartman-White went down against Temple, Cabinda was forced into the starting middle LB position as a true sophomore.  He has since embraced that role and become a vocal leader on the team.  Check out this great interview he did with Big Ten Network and I think you'll agree he's proudly upholding the tradition of LinebackerU!

The Prediction
Penn State actually enters as an 8 point favorite, and most analysts I've seen are picking the Lions to win.  I'm honestly not sure where this is coming from.  Those same analysts have lambasted Penn State all season for their underwhelming performances on offense, whilst simultaneously applauding Indiana for their 4-1 start and near take-down of the reigning National Champs with a backup QB.  At the end of the day, this game is nearly impossible to predict because both teams are keeping information about injuries to their key players under lock and key.  Depending on who actually takes the field, this one could go either way, but what the hell, I'm willing to give this a shot for entertainment's sake.  With the nice weather (and the criticism of John Donovan getting louder), Hackenberg is let loose and throws for 200 yds and 2 TDs (to Chris Godwin and Daesean Hamilton) with only 1 INT.  Some combination of Nick Scott, Mark Allen, and Johnathan Thomas manages to put up 150 yds rushing plus 2 TDs of their own.  And of course, Joey Julius hits the obligatory FG on an otherwise stalled drive.  On defense, Jason Cabinda leads the team in tackles while Carl Nassib and Austin Johnson each get a sack.  Either Jordan Lucas or Grant Haley picks off whoever is taking snaps for Indiana and seals the game.  The Nittany Lions jump out to an early lead behind a raucous Homecoming crowd and that costly turnover ruins any chance of an Indiana comeback.  Penn State pulls within one more win of bowl eligibility as they get set to head to Columbus next week.  Final score: 31 - 24.

Alright, have fun everyone and stay safe as you celebrate another Penn State Homecoming.  Check back either Sunday or Monday for the wrap up, depending on when I find time.  Head on over to my Facebook page and give it a like or even a share.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @PSUOptimus, and as always, go State!